EV 2.0 - Expected Value of BETA boosters - New Summoners! 🐉👾

in steem •  2 months ago 

Hey guys, in the general chat there was a lot of attention on the new Summoners, which have really high prices. So I was asked to redo the analysis on the Expected Value of Beta boosters in Steem Monsters. Those are priced at 2 USD, but which is the value we can expect opening one? I run some calculations.
I'm also using the @yabapmatt statement of:

Each card has a 20% chance of being rare, 4% chance of being epic, and 0.8% chance of being legendary, as well as a 2% chance of being gold.

Number of Legendaries: 15 (WOO-HOO)
Total minimum price of Legendaries: 208.22 USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Legendary: 208.22/15 = 13.88 USD
Probability of opening a Legendary per pack: 5x0.8% = 4%
Added value on Legendaries, per booster: 4%x13.88 USD = 0.55 USD

Total minimum price of Gold Legendaries: 4502 USD(as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Gold Legendary: 4502/15 = 300 USD
Considering 220 USD as average, as actual sell price to not bias the statistic, given market sales in the Discord group and data from everyday experience (and it might still be optimistic given GL are sold for 100/150 USD lately, really depends on the card).
(thanks to @tcpolymath, reference from last analysis)
Probability of opening a Gold Legendary per pack: 5x0.8%x2% = 0.08%
Added Value on Gold Legendaries, per booster: 0.08%*220 =0.18 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING A LEGENDARY, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.73 USD

Number of Epics: 17
Total minimum price of Epics: 15.22 USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Epic: 15.22/17= 0.89 USD
Probability of opening a Epic per pack: 5x4% = 20%
Added value on Epic, per booster= 20%x0.9USD = 0.18 USD
Total minimum price of Gold Epic: 297.57 USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Gold Epic: 297.57/17 = 19.84 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Epic per pack: 5x4%x2% =0.4%
Added Value on Gold Epic, per booster: 0.4% x 19.84 = 0.08 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN EPIC, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.26 USD

Number of Rares: 23
Total minimum price of Rares: 5.48USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Rare: 5.48/23 = 0.24 USD
Probability of opening a Rare per pack: 5x20% = 100%
Added value on Rare, per booster= 100%x0.24 USD = 0.24 USD
Total minimum price of Gold Rare: 92.27 USD(as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Gold Rare: 92.27/23 = 4.01 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Rare per pack: 5x20%x2% = 2%
Added Value on Gold Rare, per booster: 2% x 4.01 = 0.08 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN RARE, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.32 USD

Number of Commons: 24
Total minimum price of Commons: 1.74 USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Common: 1.74/24 = 0.072 USD
Probability of opening a Common per pack: 4 per pack minimum
Added value on Common, per booster= 4x0.07 USD = 0.28 USD
Total minimum price of Gold Common: 24.51 USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Gold Common: 24.51/24 = 1.02 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Common per pack: 4 x 2% = 8%
Added Value on Gold Common, per booster: 8% x 1.02 = 0.08 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN COMMON, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.36 USD

BOOSTER VALUE, EXPECTED VALUE = 1.67 USD

CONSIDERATION AND COMPARISON

Valued compared to last article in December.

  • Value of Legendary cards increased both in Regular and in Gold. In Regular the value added per booster almost 4x due to the new summoners being worth a lot (all over 20 USD and some in the 35/40 USD zone). The value of Gold Legendary is often a problem to calculate, cause the volatility is extremely limited so it's the best to consider a percentage of market value if we want to obtain either Steem or SBD in the short term.
    Total value of opening a Legendary increased vastly with a 3x effect on EV.

  • Value of Epic cards slightly increased in Regular and slightly decreased in Gold. Overall there is a total decrease on EV of 0.01 cent per pack, which is negligible. The decrease of overall value for Epic cards is due to the price lowering of the Gold version, in particular of monster rather than 2-mana summoners.

  • Value of Rare cards almost doubled in Regular and diminished of 30% in Gold form. The analysis here is pretty simple. More and more people are buying regular neutrals which are driving this section in prices, meanwhile the value of the gold neutrals diminished heavily (E.G. Enchanted Pixie costing 6.5 USD now or Cocatrice costing under 10 USD).
    Overall the price in terms of EV increased by 6 cent, which is tangible.

  • Value of Common cards increased in Regular and diminished heavily in Gold. The regular ones are rising up such as Peaceful Giant or Elven Cutthroat, meanwhile the same ones in the Gold form took a massive hit in 4 months. Overall the added value in terms of EV is similar to last time.


FINAL CONSIDERATION


When you buy booster through SteemMonsters you get 10% off with 100 packs purchase (10 free packs) and 15% with 500 packs purchase (75 free packs). Factoring the EV on those, with a 100 pack purchase your net EV is just -0.13 USD, cause you will pay each pack 1.8 USD.
The interesting part is with 500 packs purchase. In that case, you get a -15% of the 2USD value, which means each pack cost 1.7USD. That's the same of EV!

In summary, there's no better time to buy SM packs than today.
Taking advantage of the offer, you can buy packs at the exact EV meaning that you are expected to open what you spend. You can always be lucky (or not), yet having the mathematical saving net of opening packs for value is always nice. Isn't it? 😉

What do you guys think? Do you open @steemmonsters pack?


If you liked some early morning math, please support this post. I'm looking towards powering up to 10K SP, then moving onwards with the drone project. I'll bring major content to Steem! 🇮🇹


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I have a problem with calculation:
"The interesting part is with 500 packs purchase. In that case, you get a -15% of the 2USD value, which means each pack cost 1.7USD. That's the same of EV!"

So you tell that I should pay 1.7 USD per pack if I buy 500 packs and get 75 packs as bonus for 1000 Dollar.

But when I calculate 1000 / 575 I come to 1.74$ (1.7391 exactly) and not to 1.7$.

I think the mistake is that you calculate like discount (pay 850$ for 500 packs) and not like a bonus on top (get 575 packs for 1000$)

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Thanks for replying @schach. The idea on the final consideration is that mathematically you would get 1000 USD spent for 575 packs, so 1.74 as you said per pack. Still, aside the 0.04/0.08 difference in EV we can say that is really close. I calculated as you pointed that out, which is x-discount, whereas it's x+y where y is free packs

Given that variability is hard to be factored in statistical calculation, you are basically opening pack at exact EV, which gives great possibility of return in case of a couple of lucky cards.

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Yes you can be lucky and get very good cards it's true, but I think that most packs you open will be worth less than 2$, so it's the question if it's better to buy the cards you need in market or buy packs.

If I buy the cards in the market I pay exactly the marcet price.

If I buy packs I will probably have many cards whom I don't need for several reasons, f.e. I have already max leveled card or also I don't want to use.

So I have to sell this cards and loose 5% for commission, so I have only 95% of the invested money for buying new cards this is also a point.

Neverthanless I really think about using this offert to buy 575 packs for 1000$ - do you know if their will be any promotion in the future ?

Also I used this upvote Service from Steemmonsters a few time. I listen that for this service you get especially status with higer upvote value if you buy this 575 packs - Is this true ?

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Hey @schach! Yeah, you get a status called Maverick which means you get a (lot) better upvote from the @steemmonsters.
For the offer, I don't know until it last because I'm not part of the team. If prices keep rising as they are, it's indeed a great offer to take advantage with this EV!

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ok thank you very much for this information. So it would be in every case a benefit this Maverick status and probably If worth of cards from this 575 packs don't reach 1000$ after some time you could earn difference by upvotes through this maverick status - so it's quite a good idea I think.

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@schach yeah, exactly. It's a status to promote and support people that are heavily invested into the game

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Good article.

If prices keep rising as they are...

Interesting thing I have noticed is that despite prices rising my deck value went down in the meantime by ~25%.
If prices will rise a few per cent more, market will be flooded by traders who can afford buying 500 + 75 pack deals. 2 USD per pack is a strong barrier preventing any larger movements, one way or another (up or down).
Even if steemmonsters will get ~1mln USD for the remaining packs, they will likely issue new gamma or whatever called line of cards. Unless it's valued $5 or so per pack, barrier will remain. If valued so high, it will make difficult for new players to join.

It's very difficult to sell cards at market prices within a week or so, especially that prices on less popular cards are only theoretical - one needs to list a card with 50% (or so) discount to be able to get actual sale.

it's indeed a great offer to take advantage with this EV

Thus I wouldn't endorse buying packs based on calculated EV.

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Each person is free to choose which actions to perform. I wanted to calculate EV given that the new 5-mana summoners have a really high value and I felt that there is a lot more value now than before.
Not the general prices went upwards, but specific one as I tried to outline in the consideration section. Cards like Peaceful Giant are almost 3x what they were a couple of month ago, meanwhile other cards lost a lot in value.

Thanks for your comment on the post, glad you enjoyed it.

Great analysis, Bafi. Appreciate you crunching the numbers like that. Guess we can start to see pack sales pick up again now.
It's been a hard selling convincing people to buy when they're unlikely to get cards worth the purchase price, but knowing it's now a break even proposition (on paper at least) offers a rational reason to enjoy the excitement of actually flipping the cards.
Let's see what happens shall we?

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Thanks for stopping by @mattclarke!
Yeah, the point is to highlight how profitable (or at least worth) to buy packs right now, the 5 mana summoners really shacked the market in a positive way. Buying at EV is great!

Great News, I really would like to know how fast the packs will sell when the Value comes close to 2$.

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Yeah, it will be extremely interesting @masterthematrix! I might turn this into a weekly appointment to see how the market change

Thank you for such great analysis.

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Glad that you enjoyed this analysis @glory7!
I might turn this into a weekly series

Thanks for this post. Its interesting to see what an effect the legendary summoners had on the ev of beta booster packs.

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Thanks so much for stopping by. I found it extremely interesting as a data to be analyzed @gniksivart!
It will be cool to make a weekly series out of this

Thanks for the post

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Thanks for stopping by @vaansteam, glad you liked it!

Haha. I’m not even close to being able to afford 500 packs. But saving up. Saaaavviiing slowly

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awsome

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Great post!

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You got a 50.66% upvote from @ocdb courtesy of @bafi! :)

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great pos upvote.