EV 2.0 - Expected Value of BETA boosters - New Summoners! 🐉👾
Hey guys, in the general chat there was a lot of attention on the new Summoners, which have really high prices. So I was asked to redo the analysis on the Expected Value of Beta boosters in Steem Monsters. Those are priced at 2 USD, but which is the value we can expect opening one? I run some calculations.
I'm also using the @yabapmatt statement of:
Each card has a 20% chance of being rare, 4% chance of being epic, and 0.8% chance of being legendary, as well as a 2% chance of being gold.
Number of Legendaries: 15 (WOO-HOO)
Total minimum price of Legendaries: 208.22 USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Legendary: 208.22/15 = 13.88 USD
Probability of opening a Legendary per pack: 5x0.8% = 4%
Added value on Legendaries, per booster: 4%x13.88 USD = 0.55 USD
Total minimum price of Gold Legendaries: 4502 USD(as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Gold Legendary: 4502/15 = 300 USD
Considering 220 USD as average, as actual sell price to not bias the statistic, given market sales in the Discord group and data from everyday experience (and it might still be optimistic given GL are sold for 100/150 USD lately, really depends on the card).
(thanks to @tcpolymath, reference from last analysis)
Probability of opening a Gold Legendary per pack: 5x0.8%x2% = 0.08%
Added Value on Gold Legendaries, per booster: 0.08%*220 =0.18 USD
TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING A LEGENDARY, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.73 USD
Number of Epics: 17
Total minimum price of Epics: 15.22 USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Epic: 15.22/17= 0.89 USD
Probability of opening a Epic per pack: 5x4% = 20%
Added value on Epic, per booster= 20%x0.9USD = 0.18 USD
Total minimum price of Gold Epic: 297.57 USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Gold Epic: 297.57/17 = 19.84 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Epic per pack: 5x4%x2% =0.4%
Added Value on Gold Epic, per booster: 0.4% x 19.84 = 0.08 USD
TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN EPIC, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.26 USD
Number of Rares: 23
Total minimum price of Rares: 5.48USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Rare: 5.48/23 = 0.24 USD
Probability of opening a Rare per pack: 5x20% = 100%
Added value on Rare, per booster= 100%x0.24 USD = 0.24 USD
Total minimum price of Gold Rare: 92.27 USD(as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Gold Rare: 92.27/23 = 4.01 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Rare per pack: 5x20%x2% = 2%
Added Value on Gold Rare, per booster: 2% x 4.01 = 0.08 USD
TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN RARE, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.32 USD
Number of Commons: 24
Total minimum price of Commons: 1.74 USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Common: 1.74/24 = 0.072 USD
Probability of opening a Common per pack: 4 per pack minimum
Added value on Common, per booster= 4x0.07 USD = 0.28 USD
Total minimum price of Gold Common: 24.51 USD (as of April, 2nd)
Average price per Gold Common: 24.51/24 = 1.02 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Common per pack: 4 x 2% = 8%
Added Value on Gold Common, per booster: 8% x 1.02 = 0.08 USD
TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN COMMON, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.36 USD
BOOSTER VALUE, EXPECTED VALUE = 1.67 USD
CONSIDERATION AND COMPARISON
Valued compared to last article in December.
Value of Legendary cards increased both in Regular and in Gold. In Regular the value added per booster almost 4x due to the new summoners being worth a lot (all over 20 USD and some in the 35/40 USD zone). The value of Gold Legendary is often a problem to calculate, cause the volatility is extremely limited so it's the best to consider a percentage of market value if we want to obtain either Steem or SBD in the short term.
Total value of opening a Legendary increased vastly with a 3x effect on EV.
Value of Epic cards slightly increased in Regular and slightly decreased in Gold. Overall there is a total decrease on EV of 0.01 cent per pack, which is negligible. The decrease of overall value for Epic cards is due to the price lowering of the Gold version, in particular of monster rather than 2-mana summoners.
Value of Rare cards almost doubled in Regular and diminished of 30% in Gold form. The analysis here is pretty simple. More and more people are buying regular neutrals which are driving this section in prices, meanwhile the value of the gold neutrals diminished heavily (E.G. Enchanted Pixie costing 6.5 USD now or Cocatrice costing under 10 USD).
Overall the price in terms of EV increased by 6 cent, which is tangible.
Value of Common cards increased in Regular and diminished heavily in Gold. The regular ones are rising up such as Peaceful Giant or Elven Cutthroat, meanwhile the same ones in the Gold form took a massive hit in 4 months. Overall the added value in terms of EV is similar to last time.
When you buy booster through SteemMonsters you get 10% off with 100 packs purchase (10 free packs) and 15% with 500 packs purchase (75 free packs). Factoring the EV on those, with a 100 pack purchase your net EV is just -0.13 USD, cause you will pay each pack 1.8 USD.
The interesting part is with 500 packs purchase. In that case, you get a -15% of the 2USD value, which means each pack cost 1.7USD. That's the same of EV!
In summary, there's no better time to buy SM packs than today.
Taking advantage of the offer, you can buy packs at the exact EV meaning that you are expected to open what you spend. You can always be lucky (or not), yet having the mathematical saving net of opening packs for value is always nice. Isn't it? 😉
What do you guys think? Do you open @steemmonsters pack?
If you liked some early morning math, please support this post. I'm looking towards powering up to 10K SP, then moving onwards with the drone project. I'll bring major content to Steem! 🇮🇹