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RE: Happy Birthday Steem!

in #steem5 years ago (edited)

Apologies if i don't always reply on the dot. I'm not really the kind of person who sits waiting by the phone for a notification :D
I'll spare you the long version there as it's got nothing to do with your question. Safe to say i'm not the most organized socializer and a lot of people have made a lot of effort (or maybe just a few , i dont know that) to push me outward which has resulted in me drawing further back into my shell. Very poetic as my starsign is cancer and my shell is hard, i flow like water and have nasty pincers that snap back sometimes. (but i don't really believe in astrology although on physical level you could say gravity is real so the position of the planets and the stars to some extent has a certain modifier to the day and age on which you are conceived and born .. .which is again another topic)

As to the question. I'm not sure what you mean exactly but :

If you mean adoption , i think we're seeing great things right now at this very moment. The platform / system is by far one of the most (of not THE) advanced and there's probably a thousand ways to come at it that haven't been explored or discovered yet.
You got your pillars here, the yabapmatt / aggroed tandem for instance, who seem to have the formula of success engraved on their skin somewhere as everything they do seems to hit. Disguised as a team because they enlist many more people for each and every project and probably have tentacles in the sea here through sponsorship a lot of folk have never even heard of that makes them more like the Kraken than a whale. And i say pillars because the whole place here is practically held up by a very small group who never stops to diss it out and comes up with new stuff almost every few months like that.
Not to say i totally agree , for instance the open delegation to steemcleaners is, imo, not a good idea, politically speaking, at that level.
I could try the relevance of that so it doesnt come off like its my personal vendetta there ...
I do think that particular faction is one of the major actual problems. There's a lot of steempower (millions) concentrated over a very few accounts and a lot of them have become self-righteous and powerhungry, expecting you more or less to bend the knee and come in apologetic once you're a target. Which is normal, standard human behaviour over time as they have both the power by "divine right" lol AND "the rules" on their side. Whoever came up with those should give it a thought and put them up for revision and think about the fact that 1 million SP can support 1000 starters with 1000 delegation each to give them a little push to aid in whatever they're trying to achieve.
But that's like nurture/nature or left/right ... it doesn't really fit a reality that's analogue if you push everything to either this or that side.
A better example there maybe : "back in the day" when grumpycat and flagwars were the topic of the day, showing that the cohesion of the group here is a lot less then the outer face would like to show. I once read a post by some whale who threatened to liquify his STEEM in order to make sure TWO people who were upvoting eachother (as if that is not the whole thing here : gathering people who upvote eachother ?) couldnt make it worth their while.
Now wether that was an empty threat or not i don't know but its not too long after that the price started dunking to where it is now. Just to illustrate the damage done by the holy crusade for the grail of content sometimes.
But i do think everyone gets to do with their steem what they want so wether anyone delegates to whoever is none of my business really. It's just the way i see things.
So when it comes to adoption and options i think its going great, and i think even if they succeed in pushing the price down to one dollar cent, i myself and a lot of others will still be around here, no matter what (but let's hope it doesnt get THAT far ...)

If you mean where does the price go from here?
Well ... whew (lol) - I think the answer to that is beyond omega (the point at which there is too much data to process in order to get accurate predictions or results), you see, you get your guru's on bloomberg or cnn talking forex and telling you where the dollar goes tomorrow. They do that because it's their job and it's what brings the butter to the bread at home at the end of the day but basically they're guessing. You get all those charts and bars and stuff like Elliott-wave theory that must be a 100 years old by now (or more? id have to google that), ichimoku for the yen, bollinger bands all around , which tell you nothing more than the point where it would snap back as a natural reaction, but give zero guarantee as anything might happen overnight to negate the natural flow. If anything, from when i was trying to understand i think fibonacci levels would be the most reliable there. Maybe because of the self-fulfilling prophecy to it : people will put their stops at those levels because it's expected leading to it actually happening because there's plenty around those points at all times. You could also say fibonacci has a strange and eerie presence in the universe and reality and maybe it's part of the universal wave, but i don't think metaphysics is the order of the day either.
So basically, that's almost impossible to predict with a certain accuracy. When it comes to trading i think HFT or "noise"--trading probably has the highest chance at consistent profit but you need some serious machinery and cablewerkz for that, its probably not for mere mortals.

Now STEEM is a small market, crypto in itself is basically small compared to the classic forex fiat AND (lol @ me again ...) despite the fact that its like 21st century exclusive you will STILL see people apply the same statistical methods and models to it ...
In essence this means you are predicting tomoroow by using a dataset that takes ALL numbers starting from "recorded history" (so to speak) over time, puts them in one bucket, ignoring the fact that 1950 was a post war era, 1980 was 1980 , the lehman's was the lehmans, korea might come up with a new nuke tomorrow, binance might get hacked, tether might screw up , none of that is included (a tsunami might hit japan, or an earthquake the states, trump might start a civil war, ... you know : endless unpredictables) just takes all those numbers over one line and goes for the median or average probability AND now applies THAT to something that isnt even 20 years old and doesn't even adhere to the same rules all across the board :

YOU take your dollar yen (i think that said that last time : ) , apple needs a billion dollar deal in japan : they NEED to buy yen, a guy is thirsty and buys a coke in chicago : he needs dollar, Sony needs a billion dollar deal in england : they need GBP. All those things dictate the price. Now with BTC for instance , you don't have that, that is 100% pure speculation, which makes it hype / fear fud driven (which is why some of the old-timers keep calling it dangerous poison but in essence if you look at gold, keeping a palette of gold bricks in the attic ? there's very little actual use or effect to that either, its just a lot of money locked up ... (the comparison again, gold , fools gold , whatever)
BTC is way above my paygrade though although i do remember it being under a 100 and when it shot up everyone thought it hit the ceiling (apparently the ceiling was 2 zeros higher lol)

The price is in the hands of the whales , if you (and i dont mean "you" but in general right) expect everyone to just enlist and onboard new plankton (i think thats a really lousy choice of words but well ....) and hope THEY will drive your price up you will end up with something that looks suspiciously like a ponzi scheme (another accusation we shouls want to avoid at all costs btw) because face it : one billion plankton derives its value from what ?
Facebook ? do they pay mister Mark by buying facebook ? nope , so what's the value ? the value lies in numbers, the plankton derives value from the advertisers there, NOT by pouring money into it. The advertisers WANT to pay because there's simply so many there the chances at reaching are high.
And there's steemit itself (i dont do popular opinion very well) : if you look at steemd here you can see . They basically rely on steem to pay the bills
and the bills need to be paid ofcourse, that's unavoidable but as trading goes : you sell a quarter mille the price goes down, period.
They also never vote ... which is both good and bad i guess as their vote would drain the pool quite a lot, but on the other hand its also supportive BUT on the other hand it would be choosing sides, which is something a company probably has to be careful with, which contradicts itself (once more) in steemcleaners and cheetah and the likes. It looks like they're not powering down at the moment so the cycle has ended. I hope there's a plan to it, but even if, as long as they're reliant on steem alone to pay the electricity bill they will push the price down every time themselves .It's just simply unavoidable like that, leaving out all the morals and the should and shouldn't. And that's the likes with most of the whales and top witnesses : you run highpowered projects : they cost money : somethings gotta pay for it.
Look at steem monsters however, i don't play myself (which doesnt mean i wont sometime later) but afaik they sold the cards for fiat, actual USD , which is bottom input to the system (and their own pocket, which is after all the intention of doing business in the first place unless you're an NGO, but even NGO's need to get their people paid and fed or no one will show up for work)

So ... i'm afraid i will have to leave it with my favourite answer in the universe : " i don't know "

But i see great potential and i believe it can be. There's this weird quirk where the price seems to sit at 30 cents since the great crash of 2018 (or was that 17 already) for some reason .... which almost makes it look like someone is holding it there ... which might or might not be the case.

In any way, anyone who came into it during "the good days" i think has only one option right now thats HODL till you bleed, and if you're whalesized try thinking of ways to infuse it with fiat. And its way too soon to talk about the good days the company is what ? four years old ?

thats a toddler :p

phew ...

i should do some work around the house ... thanks for chatting, take care and see you around

oh, the notification, sorry, if you keep track of those @jrcornel

o yea, what i forgot somewhere up there : my last newsletter here i got showed about all the majors in the green, usually you get some kind of butterfly effect on planet Crypton (a bit like how the dollar seems to rule the financial globe : if BTC goes up then somewhat later most of the alts do to, but that didnt happen with steem this week, did it)
And : i think in order to succeed one of the base necessities will be to set ego aside and work on the common foundation to start on before internal tribewars take over ... otherwise its like fighting in marshland against invaders from over yonder hill while watching your back because your neighbour might stab you lol ... probably sounds biblical .. is not, its closer to sun tzu, which is a bible of its own when it comes to meta-strategies ... :D )
okay .. i think that concludes the reply :p

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Thank you for the well thought out and lengthy response. Is it fair to say that your summarized opinion on steem is that it has a good chance to go up in value?

Good chance, yes. I just replied somewhere earlier today i was thinking ad-revenue but i think exclusives to the platform would help a lot. Paid services or apps that require people to "have" liquid steem (preferably ... you can peg it to a dollar price but ask to pay in steem).
As steemit itself is probably one of the biggest sellers it would be imperative they get a second source of revenue other than selling off steem.
I'm a bit loathe to make predictions. All coins were in the green, BTC on the rise but i don't see a ripple coming down the hill. Maybe there's a temporary aversion (risk-wise?) to altcoins and everyone's going for the "gold". On the other hand steem is not just an altcoin, its a utility token/coin. The possibilities seem to have been barely explored. It's gonna be up to the entrepreneurs to do and its gonna be up to the trending section marketeers to tell entrepreneurs why they want to do it.
And i think it's up to steemit to make sure they stay ahead by a lightmile on the tek-side ... That's three factions already ... :p

I would maybe dare give a cautious response like "it has a lot more chance to grow than most of the altcoins do"

but there's no guarantee to anything, not even mighty BTC itself. If apps keep coming and people keep adopting it and find new ways it almost certainly should although since it is a utility token i would not expect it to rise to $20k like btc did but that's also pretty much impossible to say for sure.

Now you are probably not the wiser than you were at the beginning of the reply but i'm not by far an expert.
Exclusive products ... payment systems (its fast after all and the transactions are free) and targeted non-hostile advertising is the best i could think of.
But implementation of that is above my paygrade lol , i mean level ...
or maybe onboarding a few serious brandnames who can slug it out against eachother with steempower and promo-stunts but i'm not sure it will be easy to convince big names to come to a relatively small platform ..
anyway ...

gtg ... food on the stove , i certainly believe in it but its people that are going to have to make it happen, take care !!!!!!!

oh ... just remembered, i always thought they should give Gabe "lord Gaben" Newell of Steam a call to see what's possible qua integration ... micropayments, lightning fast, secure, transaction-free but i dont have his number

definitely goodbye or my veggies are gonna turn brown now , cya around !!!!

Good stuff. Thanks.

Regarding bitcoin and $20k, I think it blows that out of the water even though it won't be web 3.0. Bitcoin will be a universal store of value and that is why people will own it. The platform coins will have all the cool stuff built on them.

I just hope steem can be one of them...

there's no reason why it can't be :) but competition won't grow down over time probably. It's gonna be a serious case of eternal vigilance

Well that hit the spot ... i think its really there "people have to do it". The higher teams should sit down and start asking questions in brainstormsessions like : "why would the winklevoss twins wanna buy a wad of steem?" or "how can we convince buffett that steem is NOT poison but a lot more possibilities than simply speculation?" or "How can we convince greenpeace to put a banner because they did on flixxo so what did they have to get both them and coca-cola in it before they even had a client?"
Best of all "How can we tell government x or y they need it?" or "borderless, who cares for that keyword?" and stuff like that

Stuff like that i guess, i never been in a boardroom or a company strategy meeting lol, im just topping it off my hat ... time for my nap ... hope you got anything out of it here. It's supply and demand, someone has to create demand which at the very first is making sure everyone knows it's available. Best situation you can get is i guess something like apple, start with innovation over salespitch in a garage and end up with a product people stand in line for for 48 hours on a next-release because "everybody wants it" ...
I wish i knew some people in high places but that's not me, but i'm sure a few here around must know a guy who knows a guy ... cos there you got your avalanche pebble : "the winklevoss twins bought bitcoin so it MUST have potential :)" ...
stuff like that, sorry im rambling now, a bit tired ... good night to you, sir until next time

or maybe (all good things in three) ... you get your
a) lightning fast
b) flawless somewhere below quantum entanglement lol

but you need steempower for bandwidth -> in order to transmit data
Give Grant Cardone a call, tell him he can have a share if he sells it, then he can tell his 100 or more employees the last ten to come up with an idea are fired for that extra motivation ... there should be ample things to list before you start scrapping i hope ...
im out of my comfort zone here lol i think i better really go horizontal now, sorry for the triple spam i'm not in the habit of chewing over the things i say first ... i think maybe the essence would be selling the steemchain first over steem , maybe ... never mind sorry im out tschuess...

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