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RE: As Bitcoin price goes up, Steem is sold down...
I believe we'll see STEEM peaking at about $20-$30 at the end of the next crypto bull run. BTC will peak at about $100k-$200k. The STEEM pump will be relatively short lived like always. (Not professional advice.)
What will happen if Microsoft lauches a Facebook killer and YouTube killer on the Steem blockchain in the middle of this bull run @markkujantunen?
Would you adjust your forecast or would it remain in place?
P.S. 100 x the recent low of $0.20's USD would be $20's USD but it is possible that Steem will reach $40 USD + depending on who launches on the Steem blockchain.
Why Microsoft?
DTube is pretty much like YouTube. It uses the chain for rewards and IPFS for storing the video files. I don't think Steem actually supports anything like Facebook very well. All transactions are public and explorable forever on chain. I don't think that's what Facebook users would want.
Microsoft is more interested in supporting decentralization and if you read some of their announcements, they stated that they will build on IPFS (the protocal that @dtube is partly based on).
Secure messaging can be built on top of the Steem blockchain through Dapps (i.e. @partiko ) and if you read one of the announcements by Mark Zuckerberg he said that Facebook represents the "Townsquare" (Public) and that he will build new apps with End-to-End encrypted messaging (Private).
I see no reason why Steem based Dapps couldn't do the same and I believe successful centralized companies that cannot compete with Facebook and YouTube will eventually launch Steem based Dapps.. not everyone but at least some of the semi-popular social media networks that cannot compete against Facebook.
#SwitchToSteem
It is easy to say Steem could be $20-$30 when BTC is $100-$200 but what is the actual price in BTC for Steem when that happens?
Why not simply sell the Steem right now, get BTC, and have a much higher probability of getting that? I just don't see how your argument would make me not sell Steem for BTC.
I'm guessing STEEM will pump 100-fold from it's previous bottom like it did last time while BTC will go from 3000 USD to maybe 180,000 USD (or multiply 60 times in price).
Go ahead, sell your Steem. What are you waiting for?
But I wouldn't buy STEEM right now if I had some fiat to spare. I'd buy BTC because BTC is always the first one to emerge from a bear market. I'd wait for BTC to reach its next peak and only buy STEEM then.