RE: 09 September 2016 - Honest and explained technical analysis STEEM / BTC / USD by najoh
if a bullish reversal happens you can see it right away.
I read that as, "If something happens..." (meaning it's now in the past) "...I'll be able to explain it with my charts." Since it can literally go any direction, there's always some explanation or some line drawing or hourly, vs. daily vs. whatever that would "make sense" of it, right?
For me, it's not "predicting" the direction it's going as much as it's looking at the past activity and saying, "Yep, it's going down and it's doing so at this velocity." That lends itself to the idea of "Even those who are committed to this thing are selling at this velocity in hopes of buying up even more later at a cheaper price." Same thing could be said the other direction. Even those who could care less will buy when the velocity up is high enough that they can get out before the last sucker does.
you can see that a parabolic move is happening
But to me that's just looking at the past. That's not a prediction as much as it's stating the obvious. People were talking all kinds of "flag pattern" this and that when STEEM hit its highs and didn't crash back down right away. Now that a little more time has passed, and we have more data in the past to look at "predictions" via charts seem more "accurate" but to me they aren't predictions as much as they are reading of historical data and making educated guesses as to whether the trends will continue given the velocity of the trend and other factors such as user adoption, publicity, etc.
I'm not saying these charts aren't useful for tracking trends as they happen or that there aren't patterns which tend to emerge within otherwise chaotic systems (such as the "dead cat bounce"). I do think some are better at intuitively deciding when to get in and out than others and charts seem to be a good story to tell to try and make sense of that intuition. That's my thought, anyway. Just as no one can explain why caused Steem to shoot up to $4-$5 the first time, I doubt anyone could actually predict if it would do that again tomorrow, or next year, or never.
You are thinking too much, it's bad for trading. Once a parabolic moves start no ones knows where it will stop and when, but a parabolic moves always stop and revert back.
Now steem is going down, that's a no brainer here. Some dead cat bounces may occur along the way. Unless some new factor enters in the game (big investor, big news, buying pressure), the price will fall.
And the last parabolic move was easy to see and I predicted when it was going up that the price would go back down. I told my friends to not buy steem and they didn't listen, they bought at 4 USD, and now they are crying that they didn't listen.