What If Exchanges Won't Be Able To Quickly Regain All Their Powered Up Steem?

in #steemlast month (edited)

I'm just trying to cover all the potential situations here, folks, this is mainly brainstorming.

Short introduction: after buying STEEM's stake in Steemit Inc, and after a few witnesses introduced a soft fork to freeze that stake in regard to chain governance, Justin Sun partnered (or "colluded" if you're the stronger language type) with 3 exchanges to gain a majority and instate a new governance. Exchanges used customers funds, which they powered up - that literally "locks" those funds. In order to become liquid again, the powered up STEEM should be powered down and that takes about 13 weeks, in the current on-chain governance.

One of the measures announced with the "new governance" was an aggressive shortening of the power down period, up to 3 days. It's quite obvious that this is a supportive measure for exchanges, so they can make all their "blocked" STEEM liquid again.

At the moment of writing, the takeover is partially reverted, meaning that in the top 20 witnesses, 7 are community elected witnesses and 13 are non-human. This setup blocks any potential hardfork, including one which will shorten the power down period.

Ok, so let's take a moment here.

If there isn't enough liquid STEEM on the market, what would happen? Basic economic principles are telling us that demand will increase. When demand increases, price increases. So, if the current lockdown will continue - no shortening power down hardfork implemented - one of the predictable outcomes will be that STEEM price will rise.

Interestingly, this goes well for all parties involved: for new Steemit Inc owner, who may see an unexpected increase of value in his purchase, and for community members, who again, will enjoy a much expected (and, to a certain extent, deserved) price increase.

If the current governance is maintained, it means exchanges will have all their customer's liquid STEEM back in 13 weeks. During this time, simply because of scarcity, there is a consistent chance that price will increase.

Thoughts?


I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.


Dragos Roua


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Basic economic principles are telling us that demand will increase. When demand increases, price increases.

Erm.. No.

It's a supply decrease. And this do not drive prices up.

Here is how it works:

Person A is selling Steem for 10 0.2 USD
Person B is selling Steem for 20 0.3 USD
Person C want to buy 20 Steem for 0.2 USD only.

Person C get 10 STEEM for 0.2 USD and now there is a 10 steem 0.2 USD order.

Now, there is a "stand-off".

If another Seller enter the market, he will sell for 0.2 (supply increase)

Price only rises to 0.3 if another buyer enter the market (demand increase).

Now, supply decrease only make a difference if sellers percieve that there is a demand increase. Since there is a shortage of the 'good' on the market, sellers will try to make more profit.

Decreasing supply do not increase the price, if there is no demand.

If there is a decrease in supply of goods and services while demand remains the same, prices tend to rise to a higher equilibrium price and a lower quantity of goods and services.

From here.

I agree with this:

Decreasing supply do not increase the price, if there is no demand.

But my assumption was that demand will remain the same (see the quote above).

Consider what happens in 13 weeks then ;)
It's called black friday sale tiiimeee (~‾▿‾)~

Do you think that this might be poart of Sun's plan, or just a situation that happened?

And: Thanks for your valuable views!

I have no way to know this for sure, but, given the fact that the first measure announced after the takeover was an actual hardfork for shortening the power down period, I incline towards this being just a situation that happened...

A situation that might turn out well for whoever holds liquid steem...

If Justin cannot get his quick power down then the exchanges have a problem, but is Steem a big part of their businesses? I see from his latest attempt to bribe witnesses that he wants to remove downvotes. That's a bad move in my opinion having seen all the abuse that goes on.

That is something i had not thought of and an interesting aside to current events

Yeah, there's always more happening in the midst of the turmoil...

Yes indeed thats true of so many things

Consider what happens in 13 weeks then ;)
It's called black friday sale tiiimeee (~‾▿‾)~

If exchanges need more liquid steem, the price must go up, or exchanges will lose their reputation due to stalling. Then, 13 weeks later, "that" pool of steem will be free to be sold, and quite probably it will be sold = price dump..

Sounds like a nice moment to invest now, sell when it's high, before 13th week, then buy back after the dump..

But it's not that simple.. power down ends on 13th week, but provides steady stream of steem through all the period. So there won't be any huge rise and huge dump. Maybe small but noticeable rise in the beginning, and then slowly steady falling back to normal..

Basic economic principles are telling us that demand will increase. When demand increases, price increases.

I was thinking at this the other day, but I am thinking as well if there is high demand for STEEM. We can't complain that we don't have exposure anymore either... Interesting but uncertain times ahead.

Yeah, like I said, this is just brainstorming.

I think only witness voting issue can raise our future about steem, and there is highly appreciation for voting steemians all 30 chances!

$trdo

Posted using Partiko Android

When people make a mistake its a hard lesson and usually a costly one

The exchanges made a mistake and they should take the consequences of the hard lesson and wait the 13 weeks just like the rest of us.
The people responsible (the tron team and Justin sun) should offer to help them with a steem loans from the steem they bought. Oh wait ...they locked that steem up for 13 weeks also.

Maybe in future you check the facts CZ before acting on the word of one person.

The Steem DPOS system collapsed 3 times in one week :

  • @justinsunsteemit bought 20 % of the stake from @ned and has been able to vote who he wants as witnesses
  • A group of 20 witnesses decided a soft fork from a secret meeting, by themselves without asking the community.

( I wander where is the interest of a minnow to restore the power of the 20 so-called « elected » witnesses. This not an election, this is the richer decide. A real election is based on one person, one vote.)

  • @justinsunsteemit and 2 or 3 exchanges has been able to strike back without asking anybody.

So the steem blockchain has prooved not be decentralized at all, It never has been, but a not so bad marketing succeeded to convince naive people like me that it was.

So where would the demand could come, today ? What is the advantage of Steem compare to Facebook, LinkedIn or Voice ? Who do you prefer : Justin Sun, Zurkerberg or Dan Larimer ?

The ongoing battle will make a lot of victims. I do not doubt that the richer will win, one more time. I really wonder why witnesses are complaining, this is the rule they have installed on their nodes.

I am curious to see how Justin will be able to pump Steem up to get his investment back. There is a chance that this will profit the communities, but more likely, he is going to resale our personal data. The 3,600 posts and comments I made on Steem these last 3 years give a lot of information about who I am. It can be analysed by an AI and sold. Some authoritarian governments could be interested to buy information about who I am.

A group of 20 witnesses decided a soft fork from a secret meeting, by themselves without asking the community.

I dont think this is a 'collapse', but the system working as intended.

DPoS works like a democracy, where the voter trust that those they are voting for will do what they expect to be done. Our votes put these people in power, just like in a democratic state, and we are delegating to them the power to decide what to do with the blockchain. So, whatever the witnessess did was indeed approved by a big part of the community.

Only two differences:

1 - It's not 1 person = 1 vote, more like 1 USD = 1 vote
2 - Community don't have to wait 4 years to change the politicians. The moment a witness lose enough community support, they are out of the governance.

DPoS works like a democracy,

Certainly not a direct democracy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy

Democracy
Democracy (Greek: δημοκρατία dēmokratía, "rule by [the] people") is a form of government in which the people exercise the authority of government. Who people are and how authority is shared among them are core issues for democratic development and constitution. Some cornerstones of these issues are freedom of assembly and speech, inclusiveness and equality, membership, consent, voting, right to life and minority rights.
Generally, there are two types of democracy: direct and representative.

No one ever said it was a direct democracy.

Only two differences:
1 - It's not 1 person = 1 vote, more like 1 USD = 1 vote
2 - Community don't have to wait 4 years to change the politicians. The moment a witness lose enough community support, they are out of the governance.

I wonder how many persons voted for the so-called "elected" witnesses !

you can check here:

https://steemian.info/witnesses

It is not 1 Steem = 1 vote. It is 1 Steem = 30 votes.

I have strongly advocated for 1 Steem = 1 vote, and if this were the case today, our community witnesses would be far more strongly represented in the top 20, and the hostile takeover would be far less powerful than it is now.

I have elsewhere illustrated this mathematically, but it is important enough I will repeat that here.

User A has 1M Steem, which they use to vote for 30 witnesses. They vote for each witness with 1M Steem weight, deploying 30M Steem influence (1M x 30 = 30M). User B has 100 Steem, with which they do the same, deploying 3000 Steem influence (100 x 30 = 3000).

The actual difference in their stake is 999,900. The difference in the weight of their influence on witness elections however, is 29,997,000. Estimates of the stake Tron has purchased vary between ~65M and 100M Steem. Using a common figure of 75M Steem, Tron now wields ~2.25B Steem influence on witness elections.

It is easy to understand why making Steem witness elections 1 Steem = 1 witness vote will reduce the influence of Tron on blockchain governance from what it is presently.

The 3,600 posts and comments I made on Steem these last 3 years give a lot of information about who I am. It can be analysed by an AI and sold.

With all due respect, anything you posted on the Steem blockchain was visible before this event too. If some AI wanted to process it, it could. Just because the blockchain was (more or less) decentralized, that didn't automatically meant it was also private. You chose what you let out.

"Some authoritarian governments could be interested to buy information about who I am."

Were they interested, they already have that information. Tron has no greater access to it than any other individual or entity, because the blockchain has been publicly available since it's inception. All that data has been publicly available about you since the moment you posted it, without restriction or reservation whatsoever.

Even if you seek to delete it, you cannot. Unless the consensus witnesses change the code, all that information is a permanent part of the Steem blockchain publicly available for audit to any and all parties that seek to do so, including authoritarian governments.

The difference between Steem blockchain and Fakebook or other centralized platforms, is that on Steem the information is also available to you, or any party or entity, while centralized platforms exclusively possess the ability to access that information, which they can then sell as only they can get it otherwise.

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