STEEM Price Analysis – December 16, 2016
The STEEM price is trading sideways – and I believe that’s a good thing.
With the first round of completed power down schedules finishing on Tuesday this week, the STEEM price slid ~25% from its high to its low during trading that day. Since then, it has essentially split the difference and has been trading within the range of ~$0.15 and ~$0.20 over the past five days.
On the first chart, we can see that the 1-month uptrend (red line) from November 18th to current prices today has not been broken. We can also see the near-term support (~$0.15) and resistance (~$0.20).
For a more technical analysis: Coinciding with these support and resistance lines is the 1-month Fibonacci retracement, which shows the ~$0.15 support at 23.6% and the ~$0.20 resistance at 38.2%. This is based on the 1-month chart with the ~0.10 low in mid-November and the ~$0.34 peak on December 6th.
Looking at the 2-week chart, there was a downtrend line that was holding the STEEM price back, but the price broke out (sideways) from this trend line on December 12th. It then traded along, but slightly above that line as the first round of selling came through after the new power down schedules. It’s important to note that the price did not fall back below this line, except for a brief moment before it began trading sideways again.
We can also see that volume has once again decreased and is currently below $100,000 on Poloniex. Coinmarketcap.com has 24-hr trading volume for STEEM right around $100,000.
A quick look at the Poloniex depth chart doesn’t tell us much either way, but there is a slight increase in the total price of buy/sell orders from a couple of days ago.
So, what does all of this mean? Just looking at the data, I would think that our new floor on the STEEM price is going to be that ~$0.15 - $0.16 range. We have a lot of data pointing to that – the month-long uptrend line, near and mid-term support lines, and the 1-month Fibonacci retracement. All of these are confirming relatively strong support at that price range, along with existing buy orders. If that line does not hold, then $0.10 will likely be in STEEM’s near future.
In my inexpert opinion, I don’t think we’ll see that this week.
I honestly was not expecting the price to hold the $0.15 support line this week. I’m actually surprised by it, quite frankly. Regardless, there is one thing that still concerns me, and that is that a lot of the support for the price has been burned up on just the first round of selling after the new power down schedule. If the selling is consistent, will there be enough people willing to buy week after week? This is what remains to be seen.
On a positive note, we’re seeing a decrease in powering down from the prior week. But keep in mind that these decreases come after initially large increases.
Overall, I think the STEEM price performed very well so far this week. If you’re looking to buy in for the long-term, prices below $0.20 look fairly attractive. After the next couple of weeks, things will start picking up within the STEEMcosystem. We should see a roadmap from Steemit, Inc. coming out after the New Year. Busy.org should be moving into beta testing sometime during the first quarter. Various members of the Steemit community will be announcing/beginning new projects to help with marketing and growth.
Keep an eye on the price and don’t wait too long for the “perfect” time to get in. If you believe that STEEM/Steemit has a bright future, then now is a great time to begin your entry process. Make sure that you stay current on news and information and buy in increments when you feel comfortable enough to buy.
To the traders out there: Keep having fun. If you can pick your entry and exit points right, this is a trader’s market and there is a lot of money to be made. Of course, there can also be a lot of money lost. So, good luck to you.
If you’d like to know how many of your followers are still active, be sure to check out @mynameisbrian’s post about a new Steemit tool that he developed!
Disclaimer: I am not a professional advisor and this info should not be used for trading. I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, but it would not be prudent to use this for transacting with real money.
*Charts are from Poloniex. Analysis is current as of approximately 1:30pm EST, December 16th, 2016.
Follow me: @ats-david
According to the power down chart, over 1 million steem was powered down today, and steemdown.com confirms that, but none of that steem is in any wallets on steemit, maybe there is a delay, but if none of that steem shows up, and they were all initiated on multiple accounts at the same time a week ago, what is that about? hmmmmm?
To answer my own question, from seeing how much the price of steem is rising after the 1 million steem power down, I am concluding that the steem was burned, that's a great way to manipulate and push the price of steem up, this is good as I have a power down 3 days from now, maybe I will get a good price to sell
So it never showed the steem sent to an exchange after the power down, or sitting in anyone's wallets as liquid steem?
it all disappeared, I made this video about it
Great catch! How would it be burned exactly, like what is the physical process needed to do it? Wouldnt the liquid steem at least show up for a short time before it was burned?
I have no idea, maybe it's not possible to burn steem, but the steem is not on the blockchain as far as I can see, so I don't know, I'm waiting for a solid explanation to present itself
If you look at the @freedom account, they just stopped their power down... I wonder if these are founder's accounts...
Joined March 2016
Is it possible that it is just a glitch or a bug and the liquid steem is all just sitting there?
Based on the info from steemdb.com (the last image), the STEEM amount is ~610,000. Total vests are 1.26+ billion. I can't say where the STEEM has gone, but if it wasn't moved to exchanges or swapped for SD, then it has to be somewhere. As far as I know, the STEEM hasn't been burned. I don't think it can be burned from the accounts that are powering down, other than the @steemit account. But that power down is scheduled for early in the week, so it doesn't really apply here.
It's possible that some of these power downs had vesting routes into other accounts, but it would be a bit of an anomaly if all of those accounts were re-routing.
In short - I don't know what to tell you. Maybe it's just a lag.
it went here https://steemdb.com/@freedom
Yep. That would seem to be the answer.
Good catch!
Great points. I was expecting a drop too, and planned accordingly. So far, it didn't offer the opportunity I was anticipating. But, we have a couple months to see how the market reacts to more Steem. :)
I was certainly expecting to see $0.10 this week - and it still might happen - but I just don't think there is enough selling pressure at the moment. Next Tuesday might show us just how much support is out there. Volume is tapering off, so I don't think we'll see too much action until then.
.10 would be nice. I played into the hype of the hard fork pretty nicely, doubling and tripling in some cases. Now I'm looking to do the same on a significant downtick. Not holding my breath, but it's not a bad plan. :) If it doesn't pan out, I still did really well on this trade. I just won't have as much Steem.
Very good point
I read many of these reports and daily chart reviews. Most of the things go over my head but I'm hoping each time I read one another tiny piece of the puzzle falls into place. So thanks for keeping posting your analysis and I just wish I had the funds to start buying up bits of steem. But then all that buying and selling is a whole new mystery I need to start looking at.
Thanks for the Dead Followers mention @ats-david
RS and UV for you sir! I have had a long day with my injuries so I am wiped out.
Have a nice weekend, have some fun. I love learning from your wisdom, I appreciate it a lot