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RE: The Economics Behind the Steem Dollar Arbitrage..

Hello @cryptogee

I have read it, and the main assumption in this article is completely false IMO.

The only thing that is happening is, some user working orders on the internal market are giving away edge. These users want to sell Steem, they are working an order on the internal market to do so. The market move dramatically so that, they could get a better price elsewhere, a middle man steps in and takes profit, and matches the sellers request

The Arbitator doesn't add to selling volume, they just match volume that is already there.

Let me know if that answers your question. If not, I will happily post something more comprehensive... I am an Oil Trader (who also plays Arbitrage games) by day, so this is something I like to think I know about..

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big shock here.

As i explained in my post, the internal market is denominated in convertible notes, not cash. And that means the buy volume on the internal market won't effect the cash price, only the exchange rate between convertible notes and steem. As i also noted in my thread, you can actually watch the price getting pulled down on the external markets with no movement at all on the internal market.

Its unfortunate that the whales (and their cheerleaders) are so obsessed with either making a quick buck or projecting an image that everything is alright that they are willing to ignore/cover up an obvious flaw rather than acknowledge and correct it.

If you want to take Ollie's advice, obviously thats your option. Just like it would have been your option to take his advice to power up right before steem lost 75% of its value. But ask yourslef this-- how far down does the price have to drop before you quit believing the cheerleaders. According to @hisnameisolllie 70% is nothing to be concerned about. Is 80? 90?95?99? I gotta wonder at what point (if ever) most people will start to question the propaganda.

As i noted in Rok's thread, I am providing proof and a demonstration of this tomorrow afternoon. you can read the details of that below.

So i wanted to give everyone a quick update.
Basically, if you read the discussion itt, youll see that theres one primary disagreement between me and the people who think this is "incoherent nonsense" They believe a buy order on the internal market will offset a sell order on the external markets to determine price. I do not.
It occurred to me that there is a relatively simple way to test this theory. Because we really don't have to wait for an arbitrage opportunity to see if this works. Its just as easy to run money through the system (sell steem on the external market and buy it on the internal) and see what happens. With out the existence of an arbitrtage as a constraint, you could continue doing this indefinitely. You'd lose a little bit of money, but whats a little money in the name of science.
So heres what im going to do. Im picking up $5 or $10K worth of steem tonight, depending on how much BTC i have left over after paying out all my clients. Im going to set up a little script to cycle it through the exchanges super quick (and nby set up a little script, i mean pay someone to set up a little script), and start cycling it saturday.
NOw there are two potential things that could happen.
1.I could be right, in which case it will draw the value of steem down. I will consider my point proven if i can reduce the value of steem 40% in one night.
2.I could be wrong, in which case nothing will happen, except ill llose out on a bunch of trading fees.
I suppose we'll see. Science is fun i feel like mr. wizard. here is a seeded hash of the exact time and account im using (to prevent cherry picking)107e73fa614bdca40292469a0109c0f6f74836ea8c1fe9b20fadd26107a40004 I am not revealing the exact time or account im using before the fact, because i don't want to leave myself vulnerable to having the trading exploited on either market.
I'll post my results on saturday or early sunday after the expirement is finished.

Your buying 5-10k Steem, and then selling it to see what happens..? You net affect on the market is zero in this case.

I don't see how this proves anything. When you buy, you either prop up the price , or force it up. When you sell, you either keep the price at a floor, or it falls..

My point is that, the net affect of you action is zero. The same way the net affect of an arbitration trader is.

Well, buying and selling it a bunch of times, but yeah effectively.

What youre saying is true if both of the markets are denominated in the same currency. ANd if one of the markets isnt based on a pegged convertible note.

WHat it comes down to is that in two properly functioning markets the buy and the sell will cancel each other out. If one of the markets is less responsive they will not.

WHat i'm going to prove is that theinternal market is less responsive.

The hilarious thing is that after I do this and tank the price by half of however much is left of it by this afternoon, you'll be right back on here (along with the usual suspects) calling it a coincidence. Because to do otherwise would be to admit a there was something wrong, and lets face it, thats not how you make money on this site.

side note -- if you want to watch, i think its about to happen right now. you should see prices drop dramatically in the next hour or so

What were the results of your market manipulation play? What happened?

It hasnt happened yet, and may have to wait till monday. I ended up severely underestimating the volume of client payouts for this week, so found myself with a several thousand dollar BTC shortfall that i had to make up on LBC (at an absurd 7% markup)

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