以巴战争的启示：高科技武器不能替代人的智慧和勇气

在上一周中，这个世界上的两场主要战事都有了较大的进展。今天首先说说以巴战争这个新兴的热点，毕竟俄乌已经打了快两年了，无论是参战双方还是吃瓜群众都已经很疲劳了，而以巴战争在上一周似乎出现了阶段性的成果，以色列和哈马斯竟然达成了停火协议，虽然只有短短的四天，并在这停火期间交换囚犯和人质。这应该说明以色列从10月7日被遭到突袭之后气势汹汹，要对加沙地带实施扫荡，大灭哈马斯的态度已经大大的软化了。

可以说从以色列展开报复，对加沙地区的平民进行轰炸，再到后来的只是地面入侵，从政治上来说，以色列就已经输掉了这场战争，因为哈马斯并不在乎加沙地区民众的死伤，平民遭到的攻击越多，死伤越严重，对哈马斯的舆论战越有利，而且哈马斯对以色列发动突袭的目的就是要引发以色列的报复，让它对加沙地区进行进攻，从而破坏以色列和阿拉伯国家之间的建交谈判，这一目的也已经达成了，沙特已经冻结了和以色列的外交谈判。

好像是克劳塞维茨在《战争论》中说的，战争是政治的延续，哈马斯的政治目标几乎全部达成，以色列唯一的希望就是能够达成某项军事目标，就是比如彻底占领加沙，消灭哈马斯。而如今一个多月过去了，以色列的地面行动仅仅在加沙北部展开，而且逐渐陷入胶着状态，虽然控制了大部分的地面，但是对哈马斯的地道网似乎并没有太好的办法。从哈马斯发布的视频中来看，加沙地区的哈马斯可以通过复杂的隧道和网络神出鬼没，不断地偷袭以色列的装甲车辆，而且频频得手。

在机械化的战争中，坦克无疑是战争之王，攻击和防护能力都远超普通的步兵，但是它有一个致命的缺点，就是它的观察窗口太有限了，对外界的环境感知能力非常的差，特别是在城市巷战这种复杂的环境当中，所以在军事上就有步兵协同这一说法。但是从哈马斯发布的视频来看，战斗中的以色列坦克一般都没有步兵的伴随，所以频频被哈马斯的火箭弹射手偷袭得手，这其实也是以色列的无奈之举了，因为很多士兵都是10月7日袭击发生后动员征召的。虽然以色列是全民皆兵的义务兵役制，但毕竟承平日久，很多人虽然当过兵，但是基本上没有任何的作战经验，如果把他们放到环境复杂的巷战中，这些没有经验的步兵不但不能为坦克提供环境感知，反而可能会被埋伏好的哈马斯人员大量杀伤，而以色列作为一个小国，对战争伤亡的承受能力是非常有限的，所以也就只能认为人命比坦克金贵了，但是这样消耗下去肯定也不是办法，只能选择谈判。

虽然网上某些亲以色列的主流媒体说这次谈判是哈马斯屈服于以色列的压力，是以色列的胜利，但是就像前面分析过的一样，如果以色列在政治上已经完全输掉了，如果在军事上不能实现占领整个加沙地区，消灭哈马斯，那么在军事上那也是失败。如果不能消灭哈马斯的话，那么这场战争前或战争之后的形势就没有任何的变化，所以说白打了，只要假以时日让哈马斯恢复元气，他还会在某个时间突然发起对以色列的攻击。虽然现在内塔尼亚胡说停火是暂时的，以色列仍将消灭哈马斯，但是一鼓作气，再衰三竭，打了一个月也就这么点成果，再拖下去也就是像俄乌这样毫无意义的消耗战了。这话其实政治人物的话其实从来就不能当真的，就像宋徽宗说要光复河山，赢回他的父亲和哥哥，救回他的父亲和哥哥一样，这话也只是给民众一个交代而已，他满心想的只是如何和金人和谈，保住自己的皇位和这仅剩的半壁江山而已。

而且这场战争和俄乌战争一样，让西方的一些高科技武器的神话破灭了，以色列号称是世界上最小的超级大国，在高科技，特别是高科技武器上的发展非常的独到，很多产品连美国都会购买，比如他给美军坦克安装的主动防御系统，美国也给自己的M1坦克装上，铁穹防空导弹也被用来保护美国在海外的军事基地，而美国有好最好的武器也是优先供给以色列使用，比如F35战机。这次以色列进攻加沙地带，对哈马斯的地道网络也是信誓旦旦，说有各种高科技手段可以应对，诸如探地雷达、海绵炸弹等专门用来对付地道战的武器，不过从实战情况来看，从实战情况来看，这些高科技武器都没有表现出神奇的功效，就像乌军在俄乌战争中使用大量的西方先进装备，从鲍尔塔克到海马斯火箭弹，虽然也给俄军制造了不少的麻烦，但是都没有达到改变战场态势的目的，还有在开战初期就吹得神乎其神的弹簧刀、自杀无人机，几乎连可见的战果都没有一个，反倒是俄罗斯这边的纽液刀自杀无人机，摧毁的乌军装备倒是比比皆是，从各种自行火炮，从法国援助的凯撒自行火炮，到德国英国援助的猎豹防空导弹发射车等高价值目标都有所斩获，这说明高科技并不是万能的，特别是战争这种复杂的环境，要想设计发明出一种适用的武器，必须根据实战的结果不断的迭代开发，需要大量的时间金钱成本，第二就是战争毕竟是一场耗费金钱的大规模人类活动，要想让这些神奇武器发挥功效，产量也是一个非常重要的因素，而这些西方的去产业化、金融化、经济虚拟化，使得他们已经丧失了大规模生产的能力，仅靠一两件价格很贵的神奇武器是不可能在大规模的战争中发挥出改变战争形势的关键作用的。

所以说，这场以巴战争，不仅是一场政治上的失败，也是一场高科技武器的神话破灭，让我们看到了战争的残酷和复杂，也让我们看到了高科技并不是战争的决定性因素，而是人的智慧和勇气，以及战略和战术的运用。这也是为什么，我们不能对战争有任何的幻想和轻视，而是要尽力避免和防止战争的发生，因为战争不仅是一场人类的悲剧，也是一场文明的倒退。

---

In the last week, the two major battles in this world have made significant progress. Today, let's first talk about the emerging hot spot of the Israeli-Palestinian war, after all, Russia and Ukraine have been fighting for almost two years, both the warring sides and the people who eat melons are already very tired, and the Israeli-Palestinian war seems to have achieved phased results last week, Israel and Hamas actually reached a ceasefire agreement, although only for four days, and exchanged prisoners and hostages during this ceasefire. This should indicate that Israel has greatly softened its attitude towards sweeping up the Gaza Strip and destroying Hamas since the surprise attack on October 7.

It can be said that from Israel's retaliation, bombing civilians in Gaza, and then only a ground invasion, politically speaking, Israel has lost the war, because Hamas does not care about the deaths and injuries of the people in Gaza, the more civilians are attacked, the more serious the casualties, the more beneficial it is to Hamas's public opinion war, and the purpose of Hamas's surprise attack on Israel is to trigger Israel's retaliation and let it attack the Gaza region, thereby sabotaging the negotiations between Israel and Arab countries to establish diplomatic relations, this goal has also been achieved, and Saudi Arabia has frozen diplomatic negotiations with Israel。

It seems that Clausewitz said in "On War", war is a continuation of politics, Hamas's political goals have almost been achieved, and Israel's only hope is to achieve a certain military goal, that is, to completely occupy Gaza and eliminate Hamas. Now, more than a month later, Israel's ground operations have only been carried out in northern Gaza, and it is gradually falling into a stalemate, although it controls most of the ground, but it does not seem to have a good solution to Hamas's tunnel network. Judging from the video released by Hamas, Hamas in Gaza can sneak up on Israeli armored vehicles through complex tunnels and cybers, and often succeed.

In mechanized warfare, the tank is undoubtedly the king of war, and its attack and protection capabilities are far beyond ordinary infantry, but it has a fatal shortcoming, that is, its observation window is too limited, and its perception of the external environment is very poor, especially in the complex environment of urban street fighting, so there is a saying of infantry coordination in the military. However, judging from the video released by Hamas, Israeli tanks in battle are generally not accompanied by infantry, so they are frequently attacked by Hamas's rocket shooters, which is actually Israel's helpless move, because many soldiers were mobilized and conscripted after the attack on October 7. Although Israel is a compulsory military service system for all soldiers, but after all, it has been peaceful for a long time, although many people have been soldiers, but basically do not have any combat experience, if they are put into a complex environment of street fighting, these inexperienced infantry not only can not provide environmental perception for tanks, but may be killed and injured by a large number of Hamas personnel in ambush, and Israel, as a small country, has a very limited ability to bear war casualties, so it can only be considered that human life is more expensive than tank gold, but it is certainly not a way to consume it like this, and can only choose to negotiate。

Although some pro-Israel mainstream media on the Internet say that this negotiation is a victory for Hamas to succumb to Israeli pressure and Israel, as analyzed earlier, if Israel has completely lost politically, if it cannot achieve the occupation of the entire Gaza region and the elimination of Hamas militarily, then it is also a military failure. If Hamas cannot be eliminated, then the situation before or after the war will not change at all, so in vain, as long as Hamas recovers over time, he will still launch a sudden attack on Israel at some point. Although Netanyahu has now said that the ceasefire is temporary, and Israel will still eliminate Hamas, but after a single blow, it will be exhausted three times, and it will be such a few results after a month of fighting, and if it drags on, it will be a meaningless war of attrition like Russia and Ukraine. In fact, the words of politicians can never be taken seriously, just like Song Huizong said that he wanted to recover the rivers and mountains, win back his father and brother, and rescue his father and brother, these words are just an explanation to the people, and all he is thinking about is how to negotiate with Jin and keep his throne and the only remaining half of the country.

And this war, like the Russian-Ukrainian war, has shattered the myth of some high-tech weapons in the West, Israel is known as the world's smallest superpower, and the development of high-tech, especially high-tech weapons is very unique, many products even the United States will buy, such as the active defense system he installed for the US tanks, the United States also installed its own M1 tanks, and the Iron Dome anti-aircraft missiles are also used to protect US military bases overseas, and the United States has the best weapons that are also given priority to Israel for use, such as F35 fighters。 This Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip is also a swear to Hamas's tunnel network, saying that there are various high-tech means to deal with it, such as ground penetrating radar, Sponge bombs and other weapons specially used to deal with tunnel warfare, but from the actual combat situation, from the actual combat situation, these high-tech weapons have not shown miraculous effects, just like the Ukrainian army used a large number of Western advanced equipment in the Russian-Ukrainian war, from Bauertak to Hippocampus rockets, although it also created a lot of trouble for the Russian army, but it did not achieve the purpose of changing the battlefield situation, as well as the switchblade that blew in the early stage of the war, Suicide drones, almost not even visible results, but the Russian side of the New Liquid Knife suicide drone, the destroyed Ukrainian army equipment abounds, from a variety of self-propelled artillery, from the Caesar self-propelled artillery assisted by France, to the Cheetah anti-aircraft missile launcher assisted by Germany and Britain and other high-value targets have been obtained, which shows that high technology is not omnipotent, especially in the complex environment of war, in order to design and invent a suitable weapon, it must be continuously iteratively developed according to the results of actual combat, which requires a lot of time and money costs, and the second is that war is a large-scale human activity that costs money after allIn order to make these magical weapons effective, production is also a very important factor, and these Western deindustrialization, financialization, and economic virtualization have made them lose the ability to mass production, and it is impossible to play a key role in changing the situation of war in a large-scale war with only one or two very expensive magical weapons.

Therefore, this Israeli-Palestinian war is not only a political defeat, but also a myth of high-tech weapons, which allows us to see the cruelty and complexity of war, and also shows us that high technology is not the decisive factor in war, but human wisdom and courage, as well as the use of strategy and tactics. This is why we must not have any illusions or despise war, but should do our best to avoid and prevent war, because war is not only a human tragedy, but also a regression of civilization.