NCAA TOURNAMENT: WHAT THE COMMITTEE GOT RIGHT AND GOT WRONG!

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Ahh the NCAA Tournament is finally upon us! It's been a scintillating season filled with ups and downs, scandal, and some truly fantastic play down the stretch. While a few teams were surprising omissions from the field, for the most part, the committee seems to have gotten it right. There were a few surprises as always (the Committee has a penchant for pulling a few shockers out of left field every year), but overall, the Committee seems to have done a much better job than they normally do. It has become a yearly event for the Committee to draw my ire, but this year it's a bit more toned-down than usual. - That being said, I did take exception to a few things that the Committee did with the bracket -

WHAT THEY GOT RIGHT -

1. Virginia as the top overall seed. Not a big surprise here, the Cavaliers have been a unanimous # 1 in the polls for some time now, and they capped off both an ACC regular-season and Conference-Tournament Championship by dispatching UNC on Saturday. UVA finished off the year 30-2 and they are looking very very good heading into the Tournament.

2. Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure. The Rams struggled down the stretch, and after they lost to Davidson in the A-10 title game yesterday, it seemed as though they could be headed for a major fall in seeding line. The Rams' overall resume warranted a 6 or 7 seed and not the 8-9 that they were projected for. Rhode Island was given a 7-seed and I believe that was right on the money. The Bonnies lost a close one to Davidson in the A-10 Semifinals, but had a sparkling RPI # (22) and a big win over URI among others. With an overall record of 25-7, had St. Bonaventure been left out of the field (and they almost were - settling for an 11 seed and play-in game against UCLA), it would have been a travesty. The Bonnies were under-seeded in the end, even after San Diego State, Marshall, and Davidson became the last of the bid thieves, I still had St. Bonaventure right on the 9/10 seed line. They were more fortunate than other mid-majors just to get in (see Saint Mary's & Middle Tennessee).

3. The top of the bracket. The top 16-seeds in the Tournament were right on in my opinion. There was only one major difference from my forecast vs the Committee's field. I had Texas Tech as a 5-seed, the Committee saw them as a 3-seed, and I really don't take issue with that. I may have had Clemson slightly overseeded as a 4-seed, so no issue there (the Committee gave them a 5). The Committee could have distributed those seeds a little differently, (Michigan was probably more deserving of a 2 and not a 3, but no major issue there) but overall, I don't take exception. The Committee actually got them right for a change.

4. The 1-Seeds.
   A lot of years there is a lot of heated discussion about who deserves to get the 4 coveted 1-seeds. This year was a little less dramatic in that regard, in that, Virginia and Villanova were dominant all year long and never in any true danger of dropping off the top line. Xavier was stellar all season long as well, and although they didn't have quite as many wins vs the RPI top 25 and top 50, they were the Big East regular season Champions and actually outplayed Villanova during conference play. While Xavier fell short in the Big East Semi-Finals, they still finished the season with only 5 losses and played a challenging non-conference schedule. Their resume definitely merited a 1-seed. Their was a lot of talk about North Carolina garnering the final 1-seed as well. The committee made the right decision with the Tar Heels as well. It would be difficult to merit Carolina getting a 1-seed, even if they would have defeated Virginia on Saturday night in the ACC Title game. 9 losses (going into that game), and just an 11-7 record in conference play is not good enough for a 1-seed. It doesn't matter how many quality wins you have (UNC led the nation in Quadrant 1 victories). The Committee made it clear that performance at the end of the season (the final 10-12 games) was a metric that they were no longer going to consult starting this season, so the Tar Heels hot finish didn't matter much. But what did was their overall body of work and despite all of those impressive wins, their overall body of work consisted of 10 losses and a home loss to Wofford. Just not 1-seed material. Hard to argue with Kansas getting the final 1-seed. They were able to win the Big 12 regular season and Conference Tournament, in a league that was rated as the most difficult this season. That merits a 1-seed. Had Duke won the ACC Tournament, they may have had a considerable shot at that final 1-seed, but after losing to UNC in the ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils were rightly seeded behind the Tar Heels (they ended up taking 2 of the 3 meetings).

WHAT THEY GOT WRONG-

1. Providence and St. Bonaventure under-seeded.
   Providence College defeated Creighton on a neutral floor in the Big East Quarterfinals to make it 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays this season. They then went on to rally from a 17-point deficit and defeat Xavier in OT, to make it 2 of 3 from the X this season as well. They followed that up by rallying again in the second half (this time from 12 down) to force overtime against Villanova in the Big East Final, only to run out of gas in the final couple of minutes. That gave PC 3 total victories this season against 1-seeds. No one else in the nation could boast a resume like that. Throw in a respectable non-conference schedule and the Friars seemed to have done more than anyone to elevate their seed during conference tournament week. Yet, the Committee "rewarded" them with a 10-seed. I had the Friars as a solid 8-seed. Not sure how Creighton can be awarded an 8-seed after falling to PC in 2 of 3 meetings. PC's final RPI and SOS numbers were commensurate with an 8-seed, not a 10-seed.
   St. Bonaventure had a very good RPI # (22), and while the Committee is leaning less and less on the RPI, its whole new "Quadrant system" that they employed this year is still based on the RPI rankings. While the Bonnies didn't have a ton of high-end victories, a win over Rhode Island and a non-conference win against Syracuse were huge for St. Bonaventure. They also had an 8-game winning streak earlier in the season and had a 13-game winning streak snapped by Davidson in the A-10 Semifinals. No matter how you cut it, that's really, really good basketball. I had the Bonnies slated as the final 9-seed. A 10-seed would have been completely justifiable in the end as well, but one of the final four spots and a play-in game seemed to undervalue just how good this St. Bonaventure team has been throughout the entire season.

2. Florida State overseeded.
   The Seminoles finished the season just 3-5 down the stretch, including a 20-point blowout loss at NC State in the third-to-last regular season game and then bowed out to Louisville in the first round of the ACC tournament. The Cardinals were rightly left out of the field, and it seems as though the Seminoles managed to stay right as a 9-seed while other teams were improving their resumes in their respective conference Tournaments. FSU deserved to be in the Tournament without a doubt, but at just 20-11 overall and 9-9 in Conference play, the Seminoles were easily over-seeded. That kind of resume and RPI number (54) and Strength of Schedule number (70) merits a 10-seed or as the "bubble" shrank over the weekend thanks to the "bid thieves" even an 11-seed. It seems the Committee had their minds made up on the Seminoles going into Conference Tournament week, and decided they were going to be a 9 no matter what else happened this past week.

3. Virginia.
   I know what your saying, "hey, how can Virginia be one of the teams that the Committee got right, but still also be one of the aspects they got wrong?" Well they were correct in giving UVA the top overall seed, but the path in front of the Cavaliers doesn't appear to be one for a top overall seed. Waiting possibly in the round of 16 is a date with either 5-seed Kentucky or 4-seed Arizona. Both are two of the hottest teams in the country at the moment. Both finished the last two weeks of the season on a tear and both won their respective Conference Tournaments this weekend. Both are stacked with NBA-level talent and future lottery picks. Zona's Deandre Ayton looks unstoppable at the moment, even if he was being guarded by NBA players. Furthermore, out of all of the other 4 and 5 seeds in the bracket, only 4-seed Gonzaga won their conference tournament. Not sure how that translates to BOTH UK and Zona getting lined up in front of Virginia. Not much of a reward for the "top overall seed". A very gritty Cincinnati team that lost only 4 games all season long could be a potential Elite Eight matchup. Man, if Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers finally break through to the Final Four, they will have earned it.

4 Saint Mary's.
The Gaels looked to be in safe territory for much of the week, even after falling earlier than expected to BYU in the WCC Tournament Semi-finals. That left Saint Mary's banking on a gaudy record (28-5) and a lone road victory @ Gonzaga on getting them into the field. After San Diego State, Marshall, and then Davidson all crashed the party, Saint Mary's situation became much more precarious. Still, going into Sunday afternoon, most still had the Gaels as either one of the "last four in" or as a 10-seed. I had them slated as the third-to-last team in, playing Texas in a play-in game. After most of the "bubble" teams that really needed to pick up an additional victory or two in their Conference Tournaments failed to do so, it appeared that Saint Mary's would get the benefit of the doubt. However, the overall lacking quality of resume in the end was their undoing. I thought Saint Mary's had still done enough to get in. Non-conference losses to Georgia and Washington State were unable to be offset by a solid RPI # (40) and top 25 ranking in the polls (# 25). All-in-all Saint Mary's would be the one team's exclusion that I have issue with.
USC is probably wondering the same thing, but all of those conference wins (12) didn't come against any of the Pac-12's other Tournament teams (Arizona, UCLA, Arizona State). 10 losses and 0 wins against the RPI top 25 usually will find you on the outside looking in and that is exactly what happened to the Trojans.

Be sure to check back for plenty more content on the NCAA Tournament, including some of my "upset specials" picks and "darkhorses" to watch in the Tournament.