RE: Week 2 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Results - My Bayesian Inspired Lineups Took a Hit This Week (-$50.00)
Thanks for the feedback! The model here takes a huge hit for not having a projection on a player until they hit at least two sample points in a season. Even then, their gamma curves are really weird looking and inconsistent until they've hit their 8-9 game mark. In backtesting this is around where the model started winning consistently, hoping that trend continues.
In news of the positive, this upcoming week is my first with rookies present. Although as I will write soon, their estimates tend to be very conservative to start because of the lack of a body of work.
One thing I am tweaking a bit this week is the statistical significance of defenses and the impact that has on point projections. Modeling has it count for a little more of the variance in points projections than what I have already accounted for.
I hope no one hates me for saying this, but I haven't tried applying the model to baseball yet because I'm not the biggest fan of baseball. Casual watcher at best. I am though a huge NBA fan and am currently looking into the applicability of a Bayesean algorithm there!
I completely get the lack of love for baseball. I played for 13 years and even I have trouble watching at times. But the statistics part of it is fascinating. Events seem to occur randomly at certain frequencies, the sample sizes are enormous, and the game can be modeled with simple markov chains. You would fall in love with baseball stats. But basketball is still more fun so really interested to see what you can put together there