Changing Your Betting Mindset
When people find out that I am a professional bettor, the first thing they usually ask me is “Can you give me a hot tip?”, but what they really are asking for is a bet that can’t lose. So when I tip them a 10.00 shot and it doesn’t get up they normally write me off and lose interest in what I do straight away.
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What most experienced bettors realise is that there is no such thing as a bet that can’t lose. When people ask me for a hot tip I could do what most tipping shysters in the industry do and tip something at short odds (like backing Winx at 1.15) just to maximise the chance of getting a winner to capture their interest, but I’d rather try and educate them about what being a professional bettor is like.
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I’ve put some thought into what it really takes to become a professional bettor and I reckon the most important factor of success comes down to the mindset of the bettor and, from my experience, how that mindset needs to change. In its simplest form I can summarise my own evolving mindset over the years like this :-
You see it at the racetrack all the time. Race-goers will be poring over the form guide and/or watching the parade looking for the horse that they think is going to win the next race. Once they’ve found their selection they walk up to the TAB, or into the betting ring and put their bet on – often regardless of what price it is. This is a little bit like getting the cart before the horse (excuse the poor pun) because one of the first things that the casual punter needs to realise is that price awareness and obtaining value is a very important part of making a good selection when betting. It is easy to spot the casual bettor from a mile away by the way they talk or bet. They are in the business of picking winners and often when I’ve tried to talk some price sense into them with comments like “Your selection is too short” I get a response back along the lines of “You don’t go broke backing winners mate!” True enough I suppose, but these are often the poor mugs chasing losses, going all-in on the last race of the day (also known as the “Get out of Jail Stakes”) and/or crying into their beer when their short price favourite goes down. Bookmakers love these guys and they are often the ones who help bend market prices into ridiculous shapes for others to exploit.
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I must confess that I got stuck in this mindset for a couple of years and it can be tough to break out of it. The semi-professional usually has a good grasp of how and why it is important to obtain value when betting and knows how to analyse and price up a market. As a semi-professional I used to do all my pre-match analysis ahead of time, as I do now, and then try to figure out what SHOULD win before then shopping around and checking the prices to see if I could find value for my selection. If I couldn’t find value then I would usually come up with a NO BET even if my selection was so short that it meant there had to be value in other options. One problem with this mindset is that the semi-professional still usually gets caught up backing favourites (because favourites by definition should win) but for the most part sport and racing can dish up a lot of random and unforeseeable results. Another problem is that you still do all the form analysis, but a lot of betting opportunities are missed if your selection is too short and there is value to be had with other options. However, by far the worst problem with this mindset is the frustration that occurs when a selection that should win but, by some cruel referee decision or random bounce of the ball, doesn’t. There is nothing worse than sitting there after a game having lost a decent chunk of your bank backing a favourite at the shorts but knowing that the better team actually lost. It can really do your head in after a while and a losing run can easily kill your betting mojo.
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This was a simple change in the mindset but when I adopted it the world of possibilities just seemed to open up for me. It was like reaching a kind of bettors enlightenment where my eyes were suddenly open and I could see clearly. I remember at the start of an NRL season I wrote down a few notes after a tough season the year before. At the top of the list was this nugget “Rugby League is a random game”. I started looking at games and wondering what COULD happen, so after I did all my usual pre-match analysis I went into the markets with an open mind to finding value on all sorts of weird and wonderful selections and I could find plenty. Many of them could be found at longer odds and it was a lot easier to cope with those losses and near misses because firstly, my stakes were lower because the odds I was getting were higher, and secondly, because I was never really wrong. What I mean by that is that my selections certainly COULD have won and even if they didn’t, I console myself with the fact that they were worth a shot and didn’t cost a lot. Since adopting this mindset I have become a full time professional bettor. I can find value almost anywhere so I am betting more and winning more and I cope with the frequent losses a lot better than I used to even though my strike rate is actually lower than it used to be. Confidence in what I’m doing is high as I don’t find myself doubting or second guessing myself when I have a losing run. In fact often I don’t even notice the losing runs because they don’t hurt so nearly as much.
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In my opinion any change in mindset that can help take the emotion out of the bet selection process is surely a step toward being a more professional bettor.
DISCLAIMER – I first wrote this back in 2014 for another blog which was well before STEEM was invented. I didn’t get any traction back then but this was one of my better posts. I am anticipating that Cheetah might flag me here, so I am pre-empting it by stating up front that this is my own works remastered.
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I'm not much of a traditional gambler, but I do like to invest in art by up and coming artists when I can, as a speculative investment. Worst case, I own art I like that isn't worth more than I paid for it. I do look a lot at whose art I invest in though, and I invest in the WHO part of who could win as much as the art they make. lol
That sounds like a really smart approach without much downside. I don't have a very good eye for art though unfortunately, or I would seriously consider it as another alternative investment.
It's weird I didn't either, but then I saw an article about an up and coming artist whose work I really liked. That was the first sign it was a decent investment - there was an article about him in the paper lol After I bought the first piece I decided to look into the art world a bit more. It felt good to support him, and to get to meet him when I picked up the painting, so I wanted to buy more of his art, but, I wanted to educate myself too. I found style and dedication are the 2 main factors in artists work becoming known. Having a unique style or 2, and producing lots of work over a long period of time. I actually only became an artist myself quite a few years after I started collecting art, and what I learned in that time helped prepare me and shape the path of my own art career.
It is interesting the comments you make about art and its investment because I guess art as a discipline is a bit different from art as a business. The definition of art (and its often subject nature at least in contemporary art) makes it difficult to put a value on the work. What I do agree with is investing in the WHO and not so much the WHAT because the return on investment on a person is worth much more than the value of the work that they produce.
Art as an investment is also in some ways like crypto - get in with the right artist at the right time,you can make a lot of % profit by holding a few years. I've even had offers directly from some of the artists I collect to buy their art back for 2-3x what I paid for it just because they sold it to me "too cheap" early in their careers. But, I'll hold another 10-20+ years lol
With so many great artists on Steemit already, do you see any potential as an artrepreneur of a blockchain based market place for people here to buy and sell artworks? There has been discussions about it on steemgigs and I would love to see it happen!
I wouldn't have time to run it myself, but I think it's a great idea. Explaining to artists how to turn the $ into fiat, or ideally building that service into the platform, would be the most important part of the equation, if that can be made easy, then I guarantee artists would flock there. Crypto is great, but, it can be hard to explain and lots of people still have this idea it's for dark web drug deals etc...
If you market them well you'll never lose because it's not even betting.
I have always been interested in the information provided in the form guides and how much you can use it to put in better bets. I find that at least the information is based on actual data rather than the financial reports you read about companies on which you use to invest in the sharemarket :p
People often talk about psychology and emotions involved in betting (which I think makes up for a fair bit of the mindset), and the use of data or information can help provide a more objective view.
It helps to have a form guide, but really what you get elsewhere is just the tip of the iceberg so I find its best to make your own form guide.
I see. If that's just the tip of the iceberg, where do you get your info (or is this a trade secret)? It is surprisingly how religiously people follow the form guide (at least those that are at the TAB putting in big bets) :p
Depends what you're betting on. I assume it's racing since they're the only real form guides you see in the newspaper. There are databases you can pay for with all the time trial info, some watch videos of past races etc. You could build a pretty awesome and comprehensive form guide that blows away what you'd find in the newspaper. But you might have to pay for it.
Stay tuned, I'm thinking of writing a series called something like Lifecycle of a Bet or something. The first stage would be about Research and producing your own form guide.
I'd prefer to create one than to pay for it, considering that there are things out there that would blow away what is on the form guide in the newspapers (which I thought was pretty good - but that shows how little I know :p). I am going to keep an eye out for your posts, and maybe I'll have better luck in next year's Melbourne Cup :D
LOL, the Melbourne Cup is the hardest thing to pick...possibly ever!
I missed my chance to retire comfortably on Melbourne Cup a few years ago, but it remains a favourite story of mine about betting: https://steemit.com/story/@plushzilla/my-tip-for-the-melbourne-cup-beat-the-bookies-by-just-having-fun
I think the other really tough ones to pick are the FA cup and the NCAA final eight :)
That was the first article I read about the mindset of a professional bettor and I congratulate you for it. Could you expand what you do before the betting ? I am just curious about the process of your thoughts before choosing which bets you are taking and why.
Thanks. Was thinking of writing a few more posts about my betting over the next couple of weeks so stay tuned :)
I bet sbd will hit $20 mid year.
I'll take that bet. Lets talk stakes on Discord? :)
No need. I'll bet 5 resteems!
I bet it will hit $1 before $20.
double down
I bet that it won't, only because I wouldn't mind being proven wrong on this one :D
i'll get back to you
My favourite betting was about 20 years ago (just starting to get internet options) with trans-tasman netball. The New Zealand TAB would have NZ as the favourite and the Australian TAB would have Australia as the favourite, and there were often arbitrage opportunities.
Ah, the good old days when you could find sweet arbs and get on for large stakes!
It's not like that any more sadly :(
I lose pretty much every bet I make but it's like the crypto which is pretty much like betting they all come with risks you got to take the loss's with the profits keep up the work
So true. It's all about risk/reward ratios and it's been a pretty natural progression for me to get into Cryptos now that I have a solid background in managing risk.
I couldn't agree more crypto/betting I only put on what I'm ok with losing if you lose you can't cry over spilt milk you just got to carry on learnt a lesson from bitconnect 😡😠 my own mistake for not looking into it as much as I should've but you learn an move in to the next risky adventure in the famous words of dell boy he who dares wins 👍🏻👍🏻
You're right!
Betting is hard and the hardest part of it is managing your emotions. You can even say that all the betting mistakes you can make are the result of your emotions being out of control.
If you're able to detach yourself from the outcome, you'll be fine. Do your analysis, pick your play and let it go.
I know, that's easier said than done, but that's the key to success. Do your best and let it go.
I have a betting strategy that, 20% of the time, works all the time.
very lovely art D:
good post friend, good mentality and security you give reason to your bets