DFS DRAWING BOARD - NFL Week 8 - Quarterbacks
Week 8 of the NFL season is upon us and it should be an exciting one. We have a number of injuries to sort through, weather issues, and a ton of high scoring contests that should offer plenty of fantasy production. So lets get right into our top plays at the quarterback position.
Last week in general wasn't that great in terms of my recommendd DFS plays. Those types of weeks will happen, of course, but we need to make sure to double down and rebound. QB recommendations last week included Winston, Cousins, and Flacco. Winston and Flacco actually turned out to be quite productive but I totally downplayed the wind effect in Cousins game. Overall, the QB recommendations played out pretty well.
Each week we take a step back to review the upcoming weeks matchups and crunch the numbers to develop a series of position specific articles related to top daily fantasy sports plays. Whether you are playing on FanDuel, DrafKings, or even configuring your season long NFL lineups, these articles should serve as a reference tool and helpful guide to choosing the best players. I've shortened these articles to give you only the necessities and bottom-line reasoning as to my top choices. This is a no bullshi*t article and by that I mean the players and plays I suggest are those that I will be using in my personal lineups. Nothing is excluded. We intend to win. The goal is to make great lineups, win money, and share our success stories. If you are new to my blog or daily fantasy sports in general, I encourage you to check out my DFS Introduction post which provides some general context on what DFS is and how to play. Spoiler alert, if you like playing fantasy sports and winning money, DFS is the platform for you. Also, if you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings. Each provides its own set of bonuses for new users.
With that being said, here are my top plays at the quarterback position for Week 8. Enjoy, upvote, and comment on your weekly outlook.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs
$7,000 / vs. DEN / KC - 10
Just play him on a regular basis. I mean, we don't need much analysis to conclude Patrick Mahomes is a great play each and every week, regardless of his opponent. You would like to think a regression type game is coming but so far, he has lit it up each and every week. Mahomes plays at home this week against a pretty stout Denver defense. The good news is that KC and DEN already squared up earlier this year when KC traveled into DEN during Week 4. Even in a tough matchup vs. a good Denver defense on the road in Mile High, Mahomes still was able to throw for over 300 yards with a passing TD and a rushing TD. That tough matchup and game basically highlighted his floor. Mahomes has posted no less than 20 DK points any given week and if you really look at it, Mahomes has posted 25 or more points in 6 of 7 games so far. The dude has over 2,500 yards, 22 TDs, and only 6 INTs through the first 7 games of the season. He offers elite passing to go along with strong running abilities. The downside is that his price has risen to $7,000, KC is favored by 10 points, and Denver's great defense is seeing him for the 2nd time. I still believe Mahomes hits value relatively easily this weekend and is the safest QB to play across the board.
Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers
$6,100 / vs. CLE / PIT - 8
Big Ben is off to another great season by almost all passing metrics. He currently has over 2,000 yards passing with 12 TDs, and only 6 INTS. Yes, that is less than Mahomes but the Steelers are coming off a bye and before Week 7, Ben topped the charts is yards thrown. The home/road splits still remain concerning but he and the Steelers are playing at home this weekend in Pittsburgh. Anytime Big Ben is at home, you have to consider him in fantasy. Consider this, for 2018, Big Ben is averaging almost 26 DK points at home vs. under 18 points on the road.
That being said, Big Ben and Steelers face off against the Cleveland Browns this weekend. Ben has a strong history vs. Cleveland, especially at home. Regardless, the matchup vs. the Browns is quite favorable for any QB. The Browns are surrounding over 278 yards per game through the air, which ranks as the 7th most in the NFL. Although they seem to have a pretty good defense on paper, the Browns have suffered some key injuries to their secondary and haven't faired well vs. quality QBs over the last couple of weeks. Just last week, Jameis Winston threw for 365 yards and TD abasing them. It seems as though anytime they play on the road, they get torn apart through the air (see Winston, Carr, Brees). One other note that I find interesting is that following last weeks loss to Tampa Bay, the Browns have played in 4 over time games this season. That should be taking a toll on them at some point and I believe this week is the week they just can't hang. Even in the event of a blowout, I believe Big Ben easily hits value at just $6,100.
Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers
$6,400 / vs. LAR / GB + 9.5
This call is a bit risky but I love playing elite QBs in tough matchups when they are going to be low owned. Aaron Rodgers traveling to LA fits that bill. Coming off a bye week, getting most if not all of his receivers back, and having the ability to rest and heal his knee, I think Aaron Rodgers is primed to surprise this coming weekend. Green Bay is a big underdog which should force Rodgers to throw for most of the game. One good sign is that for most of the week, the Vegas line sat at around 10-11 but has now moved to 9.5. That means money is coming in for Green Bay. I'm not certain they win the game but I believe it will be a high scoring affair. Even still, the entire offense plays through Rodgers so if they are going to score, he will be accumulating points. Rodgers is the best QB in the game, hands down. What he has been doing over the course of the season is nothing short of remarkable, especially considering his knee injury. Rodgers somehow wills Green Bay back each and every week. Rodgers is coming off two straight fire performance weeks of 31 and 33 DK points. The game itself has the highest projected total of all games at 56.5, meaning lots of offense. The downside, of course, is that the Rams have a very very good defense. In fact, in standard fantasy scoring they are only surrounding around 16 points to opposing QBs, ranked as the 5th lowest in the league. I don't have any special stats or numbers to support playing Rodgers in this contest outside of who he is and what he has done to teams in the past. I think coming off of a bye week, Green Bay is prepared and Rodgers will perform like the elite QB he is. If you are looking for a purely GPP play at low ownership that has a ceiling as high as anyone, Aaron Rodgers on the road in LA this weekend is your man.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
Andy Dalton - $6,200 - Bengals
- Not my favorite play in the world but Tampa Bay is easily the worse secondary in the league. A ++ matchup for any QB and Dalton comes in relatively cheap.
Jameis Winston - $6,000 - Buccaneers
- Winston has been performing quite well since he return from suspension. The Bengals are another very week defense vs. the pass, ranking in the bottom 5 of the league. At just $6,000, Winston should easily hit value again this week.
That about wraps up Week 8 plays at the QB position. As always, good luck out there and lets win some money!
Sourced: The Atlantic / USA Today / Packers.com
Love both Dalton and Winston's prices. Drew Brees is criminally cheap this week
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I agree with you although I fell into the cheap price trap of Brees last week on the road. He just doesn't perform the same on the road as at home although being that MIN is played in a dome, he could be a sneaky play. The only issue I have is that he isn't on the main slate for DK and FD which is primarily what I play. Thanks for the comment!
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