Split Ticket's odds as of October 5th.

Their model has a 30% chance Harris wins Florida.

The range of uncertainty includes a Harris landslide that could flip Florida and Texas and a Trump win that exceeds his 2016 electoral vote as possible.

In the Senate, Florida and Texas are closer than Montana at this point in their model. Also keep an eye on Nebraska. Osborn is unlikely to win, but the model gives him a fighting chance. Still a narrow Republican Senate is the likely outcome with Montana flipping.

In the House, Democrats are favored to have a narrow majority. But with 16 races as a toss-up, it could go either way. Narrow majorities for either party.