Alerta, Fascista?
In pre-pandemic days, travelling required preparation. We made sure our bags were packed; if necessary, we made sure we had visas and passports. If we were taking a train, airplane or bus, we checked our reservations, gates and departure times. If we were driving, we checked our routes and made sure our vehicle had gas, oil, etc.
When activists take the streets, they should do the same, and be prepared. One overlooked preparation is the acknowledgement of a threat, be that to you or your bloc. Poor threat assessment may have contributed to the "Redneck Taliban" invasion of the United States Capitol.
According to What you Don't Know can Kill You, being able to assess a threat can help you avoid an incident entirely, since fasc are often itching for a fight. If defensive actions are needed, you or your bloc can prepare for action and assess force. You may be able to avoid arrest, and, if you or members of your bloc are arrested, you'll be ready for court.
Assessing a threat can provide an answer to very important questions; why were you in danger and why was violence needed. Threat models are court-tested and can be admitted as evidence, they show your or you counsel have a knowledge about danger and have training in the subject of appropriate force.
According to What you Don't Know, any encounter has five stages; intent, where the attacker makes their determination to attack, interview, where the attacker determines you or your bloc are a safe target, position, where the attacker makes their move, the actual attack or threat and you or the blocs response. These stages are cumulative; if the first three stages cannot be developed, the fourth will not happen.
The most common model for assessment is "Ability, Opportunity and Intent". This may be the legal form of the "Means, Motive and Moment" model that are the basis of many procedural dramas and crime novels.
Ability, in the context of a threat, is an opponent's power to harm. Opportunity is the potential for immediate use; this can be circumstantial, a person with a pipe cannot attack you from across the street. but a person with an AR-15 can, obstacles need to be considered as well. Intent is the determination to do something, when a persons body language changes, this needs to be articulated and made to hold up in court.
There are other threat models; jeopardy, ability and means adds the concept to jeopardy, or why use of force was reasonable in that situation. The ability, opportunity, jeopardy and preclusion model incorporates preclusion; whether or not another action, like retreating, could be taken. The SALUTE model focuses more on the threat that is approaching. A last, overarching concept is a totality of circumstances, where there is no single factor, and all facts and context must be considered.