[EpicDice] 為什麼EpicDice的獎金池常常是滿的?
不不不,今天不談賭。談數學。
題目是:為什麼EpicDice的獎金池最近常常是滿的?(獎金池注入後上限是300 STEEM,現在常常是滿的,或是接近滿的)
先說一下,獎金池是用EPC token來下注時所可以獲得的STEEM即時數量總額。
也就是說,這是賭EPC時用的,跟平常下注用STEEM沒有關係。
下注EPC的規則是:贏的時候,按照內部價格(目前是100k EPC = 1.117 STEEM)來賠,並且扣除5%的EPC。輸的話,很簡單,下注的EPC都燒毀啦!
那麼到底為什麼獎金池常常是滿的呢?
讓我們用一個例子來試算:下注1,000,000EPC,賭高於50,因此機率是一半一半。
- 如果贏:下注金額相當於111.7 STEEM,賠1.96倍,所以是 111.7*1.96 = 218.932 STEEM,但是損失 50,000 EPC
- 如果輸:1,000,000EPC,ByeBye!!
目前,50,000 EPC市價相當於是 8 STEEM
因此,期望值是:( 218.932 - 8 ) * 50% = 105.466 STEEM
1,000,000EPC按照市價換成160 STEEM,賭局期望值只有約105.5,不太有吸引力。
不過,原本賭博就必然是負的期望值,我們這裡要檢驗的是用不用EPC來賭。
所以,要對照1,000,000EPC按照市價換成16 STEEM來賭會如何?
- 如果贏:下注金額160 STEEM,賠1.96倍,所以是 160*1.96 = 313.6 STEEM
- 如果輸:160 STEEM,ByeBye!!
期望值等於:313.6 STEEM * 0.5 = 156.8 STEEM!!明顯高多了!
所以,自然,沒有人會想用EPC去賭囉~~~
這裡頭的重點就是:EPC市價高了,代價上升,自然就不划算了~~~
噢,對了!EpicDice剛剛完成EPC之前承諾的空投,總共發出1.5m的EPC,價值150 STEEM喔!
https://steemit.com/dice/@epicdice/airdrop-of-1-5m-of-epc-worth-at-least-150-steem-is-completed
如果錯過,下次一定還有機會的!
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