Thanks for putting this together visually! I was an example of someone who was buying SBD to immediately convert given the arbitrage opportunity. While I used it to power up it could be games for profits but as you say the haircut is doing its jobs on not allowing it to be worth it at a certain threshold. In fact, given the 3.5 day period needed it is a risky proposition which could lead to losses which is probably why conversions had stopped and SBD price is now more correlated to STEEM price.
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Yeah, the amount of steem you get is going to be roughly the same per SBD (depending on supply fluctuations), so it makes sense even from that. So I'd rather buy the steem directly. If the market price of SBD was wildly off the haircut price though, I may revisit. But even so that 3.5 day period is killer.
I also converted when we weren't in haircut range. Much easier to reason about.