Molali - La Liga Matchday 9 Predictions

Predictions for all La Liga games of Matchday 9 based on Molali's calculations.

This is the first week for my new prediction model. I hope it starts with some good results this weekend. I will place some small bets already, but this contains a high risk. This week I will place only 3-way bets, I plan to start with the result bets next week, but I still need to do some calculations to find a good system.

For each game I compared the results with the odds from my 3 bookies (bet365, bwin and pinnacle) to find the "odds with value". If the implicit probabilities are lower than the probabilities of Molali, that means a value is there. These are the bets I place. I play every bet with 2 Units for now to start and see how it goes. I may change to a dynamic stake model later.

Barcelona - Sevilla

Odds with value: X = 6.5 @ bet365 -- 2 = 7.5 @ bet365

Betis - Valladolid

Odds with value: X = 3.8 @ bet365 -- 2 = 6 @ bet365

Celta - Alaves

Odds with value: 2 = 4.12 @ pinnacle

Eibar - Athletic Bilbao

Odds with value: 2 = 2.83 @ pinnacle

The implicit probability here is 35%. Compared to the weigthed average this would be convincing, but in relation to the unweighted average this is too small for me, thus I will not place any bet.

Huesca - Espanyol

Odds with value: 1 = 3.63 @ pinnacle

Rayo Vallecano - Getafe

No value bets for this game

Real Madrid - Levante

Odds with value: X = 8.98 @ pinnacle -- 2 = 21 @ bet365

Real Sociedad - Girona

Odds with value: 2 = 5.13 @ pinnacle

Valencia - Leganes

Odds with value: X = 4.21 @ pinnacle

Villareal - Atletico Madrid

Odds with value: X = 3.12 @ pinnacle

Summary

This week the Molali found 11 value bets. That means 22 Units are at stake.

Interesting to see, that most bets are on the away team or a draw (both 5) and only 1 on the home team.