Populous – PPT Price Updated Forecast, My Take!
It is time to do another price prediction to reflect current thinking.
LGC Deal PPT Price Prediction Update
LGC purchases luxury consumer products from the manufacturers at preferential rate and then sell them to its Loyalty card holders at a discounted price compared to other retail options. As a result, LGC will possibly need to wait up to 31 days for accounts to be settled by the buyer. In the meantime, as new orders come LGC will need to fill these orders with money that is either borrowed at interest or by using money sitting idle in their liquidity pool.
This makes expansion of the LGC business very difficult to achieve because of the constant need to turnover money very quickly. Growing organically by oneself without help is slow going. This is where Populous can help. Populous’s liquidity pool can function as LGC’s liquidity pool thus allowing them to expand because LGC will no longer need to maintain a liquidity pool.
In light of new understanding, a revised estimate for the PPT price based on the LGC deal is presented. The units are all in USD to avoid confusion.
The same principle is used as in the original price forecast but with a couple of tweaks to the assumptions.
- Invoice due dates will possibly be less than 31 days and may be as short as 20 days by the time the invoices have been process by LGC and Populous before they are placed in the market. A time frame of 31 days is assumed to allow rotation of funds at a 31 day period in line with invoice due dates. A due date of 91 days was used in the original prediction.
- The circulating supply of PPT have been updated to reflect the circulating supply as show on CMC as at posting of this article. All circulating tokens are included but in reality this will be less because some will be lost, some traded on the exchanges and some just sitting idle in wallets.
For more details on the other assumptions made in the price prediction, refer to my post “Populous – My Take On The PPT Price”.
The original PPT price prediction is too high and the newer price prediction appears to be more realistic. Nevertheless, this is not to say that the original price of PPT as predicted will not be realised.
With Populous by its side, growth for LGC will come quickly which only mean more invoices for investors on the Populous Platform to buy.
What do you think?
An Updated Prediction
The LGC deal is only one price component of PPT. The price prediction for the LGC deal does not included the price from the UK operations or the China market.
We know that the LGC deal will consist approximately $1.3 billion of invoices annually giving a daily invoice amount of approximately $3.5 million. However to determine the daily invoice amount for the UK and the China market some assumption will have to be made.
Assumptions:
UK invoice factoring market is assumed to be $625 billion (approx.)
China invoice factoring market is assumed to be $850 billion (approx.).
Market share is assumed at 1% each.
Therefore, at 1% market share of:
UK Market – $6.25 billion annually
China Market – $8.5 billion annually
The price predicted is calculated as below.
In the calculations a further assumption is made for rotation of the funds. Instead of 31 days as assumed for the LGC deal, an average of 45 days is assumed because the nature of these invoices are different to those of LGC. Invoices will likely be from suppliers to manufacturers or government entities with payment terms of 30 day, 60 days and 90 days. The assumed 45 days is the average of 30, 60 and 90 days.
With the guessetimates of market size, market share and period of fund rotation, the price of PPT works out to be around $59.96.
A follow post will elaborate more on the assumed market size assumed in the calculation.
In Conclusion
We all want the PPT price to go up but the price cannot go up on pure speculation alone because of the way PPT is designed. If the price of PPT is to go up even higher the liquidity pool will also need to increase relative to the price increase. That is the wrong way to look at PPT price. PPT price should be looked at in terms of the liquidity it has.
As I noted in my previous post “Poplulous – Using Someone Else’s Money To Make Money”, Populous will not have credit lines available and instead relies on wealthy investors, banks and institutions to provide liquidity. To increase the price of PPT we should be thinking of ways in which Populous can attract funds and hence grow its liquidity pool.
There are a number of ways to increase the liquidity pool.
• Re-invest profit generated back into the liquidity pool.
• Increase market share
• Increase the number of markets
• Generate additional revenue stream
These are all things within the control of Populous and no doubt are only just some of them. These are the long term objectives Populous will need to meet to grow and build a long lasting platform that will stand the test of time.
As investors of the PPT token we should all help to ensure that Populous is a runaway success. This means doing our part by making sure all invoices we see on the platform are filled as quickly as possible because a happy customer will always return for more. MarketInvoice has a retention rate of around 80% and with our help as loyal PPT investors we should strive for 100% retention.
We all have a vested interest in the success of Populous and to see our investment in the PPT token grow. As soon as the platform is launch we should all do our part and go all in.
Other Populous Posts
My other posts can be read by clicking the links below.
Populous – Breaking “NOT OFFICIAL” News!
https://steemit.com/populous/@marcusxman/populous-breaking-not-official-news
Populous – Full Steam Ahead on the Spur Line?
https://steemit.com/populous/@marcusxman/populous-full-steam-on-the-spur-line
Populous – I’m in a Relationship!
https://steemit.com/populous/@marcusxman/populous-i-m-in-a-relationship
Populous – Business Synergy In Action?
https://steemit.com/populous/@marcusxman/populous-business-synergy-in-action
There are more posts on Populous and you can find them here.
Should you have any questions concerning Populous you can approach Populous through their Slack Channel, Bitcointalk forum or Twitter Account for answers and clarifications.
This is NOT Financial Advice
In my humble opinion, the risks to the downside are small compared to the potential upside rewards. This should not be construed as financial advice but an opinion only. As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose as these investments can go to zero and always do your own due diligence.
Feel free to comment as you see fit below.
Cool man. As you know by now I'm a big fan of Populous. Keep the great articles comin'! See you in the Slack channel.
@moxi, more posts in progress!
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I think that the price could easily overshoot the $60. I think we see 10x perhaps and then rest at a reasonable market value. Most people who invest are not looking at the numbers as you have they just buy and hope that it will go up.