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RE: Monty Hall Problem and Other Ways of Using Probability Theory in Life

in #popularscience8 years ago

Your roulette advice is completely wrong, in several ways.

First, you're repeating the Gambler's Fallacy, the idea that an outcome is influenced by previous outcomes. If you flip a coin three times, and get heads each time, what are the odds that the next one will come up heads? 50%, the same as it was for all of the previous flips. The only casino game where past events affect the current game is Blackjack, and casinos reduce that effect dramatically by dealing from a six-deck shoe.

Secondly, your idea of doubling up has led many gamblers to the poor house. For instance, if you lose ten dollars, you then bet twenty. You're now betting twenty dollars to win back your original ten. If you lose again, you bet forty, which is still chasing the original ten bucks. Then 80, and so on, all the time chasing that first ten dollars. If you could bet an infinite number of times, without running out of chips, you could eventually win your ten bucks back. Except for one little thing that will always prevent you from doing that - the house limit, which is in place to make this impossible. Once you hit the limit for that table, your money is gone, and you don't have a chance to keep doing this to recover it. Over time you will see that this method is simple in practice and very effective! This approach won’t gain you millions, but you’ll have enough money to live. No, you won't. You'll be broke.

But worst of all, you're ignorant of the very basic rules of roulette. For example, when you play any roulette game, you have an opportunity to play with the 50% chance of winning, betting on an even number or on red. Wrong wrong wrong. The numbers are not divided 50/50 between odd and even, or black and red. There are two green numbers on the wheel, 0 and 00. They give the house unbeatable odds, and make Roulette one of the worst paying games in the casino.

Seriously, you could have learned all of this in about ten minutes on Google. Maybe five.

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