US-Russia-China poker game – who will blink first?

North Korea's „perfect” nuclear test early on Sunday only raised the stakes in the dangerous poker game the United States, China and Russia are playing in Asia. The game is ever more dangerous because of the „wild card” - the undpredictable Kim Jong Un.

The legendary lady in pink bringing the 'good news' to the people

Responding to the latest Korean provocation, president Donald Trump once again hinted at a military option, saying appeasement doesn't work, a position softened by his US Defense Secretary James Mattis quickly emphasizing that there was still room for diplomacy.
In a series of tweets after the nuclear tests, Trump rebuked China for not doing enough to calm down its troublesome North-Korean protege. So far, Trump did not acknowledge the other important player in this game, Vladimir Putin, currently jostling for more influence in the region.

Reading between the lines

In times of crisis, while waiting for official statements, it is a good exercise to see what the propaganda machines have to say. Browsing through several commentaries on Moscow's most important news outlet, Russia Today, it is clear that Putin considers Washington's bellicose stance simply outrageous. And, it must be said, the main argument is pretty damn solid. 'How dare Washington threaten another country after the disastrous military interventions of the past two decades. Why would North Korean give up its nuclear program after what happened in Iraq and Libya?' Both countries tried to comply with international demands and inspections of their military capabilities, only to be subsequently invaded, destroyed and their leaders executed.
I'm sure Kim Jong Un remembers these images.

The uncomfortable alliance between Russia and China

At this moment, the US will have to wait for the outcome of a very important meeting taking place in China. President Putin arrived on Sunday in the China’s southern port city of Xiamen, for the ninth annual summit of the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, which opens on Monday.
The talks between the Russian and Chinese leaders are not going to be easy, as relations between the two countries have had a lot of ups and downs over the past decades. Their current alliance is only motivated by their mutual hate of the US' hegemony on the international stage.
Trump put China under the spotlight for not doing enough to reign in Kim Jong Un, but, historically, the Pyongyang regime has closer ties to Moscow, as it was the Soviet Union that put the Kim dynasty on its throne. Following the fall of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was in no position to help out much the impoverished North-Korean regime and China took advantage of this to strengthen its position in the region. Right now, experts say Moscow is interested in regaining the influence it once had. China is not happy about that, but, for the moment, it might decide to ignore Putin's actions and maintain this alliance just to weaken Washington's position.

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping agree to 'appropriately deal' with Kim

Pyongyang must not fall

Over the past two decades, every American intervention was aimed at increasing its military presence in regions dominated by its arch-rivals, especially Moscow. The tensions in Asia are already helping the US bolster their military presence in South Korea and Japan, as they are allies that need protection. Japan is increasing its defense budget to an unprecedented USD 48 billion (not bad a deal for the US military industrial complex since it is American weapons they're buying).
China is obviously enraged by this move, given the historical rivalries between the two Asian countries. One thing China definitely doesn't need right now is the fall of the North-Korean regime, which would pave the away for a reunification in the Korean peninsula and having an even greater American military presence on its door-step.
The BRICS meeting in China will probably end with renewed calls for talks between the United States and North Korea, putting even more pressure on Trump.
And let's not forget that while it depends on Beijing and Moscow's political and economical support, Kim Jong Un might decide to act on his own and resort to even more provocations.

Who will blink first?

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