I find your series of articles to be interesting. Certainly there is a lot to be considered and matching up numbers, and looking at history can tell a lot. However, I think there is one factor that you might want to look at. Christianity. Ultimately, the question of what happens when muslims move into Christian nations has not been answered completely, but they can convert. Protestant Christianity can have a profound effect on cultures. Jesus Changes lives. Here is an introductory article. The research who wrote it also has some lectures on Youtube. The short version is that 200 years after missionaries go into a country they are much more likely to have a stable democracy. He looked at lots of factors and statistically that was most important. http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2014/january-february/world-missionaries-made.html