-- COMPLETED -- [Poker] What Am I Holding? (aka "Guess My Hand")
Note : There is no payout for this "game". I'm just curious to see if anyone can guess my hand. I may give a little SBD to the person who guesses it correctly or I may not. We'll just have to see won't we. So play for fun!
Hint 1 : I've played enough hands with the people at the table and seen enough of their stats in PokerTracker to feel that I can control most of the action. So I'm playing a little loose aggressive (for me) in this spot against this opponent.
Hint 2 : I put him on a large pocket pair pre-flop based on the odd size of his 3Bet. He seemed to want me to 4Bet him and he was playing fairly tight. I also had currently earned the title of "donkey" on a previous hand, so he was gunning for me I figured. ;)
Hint 3 : When he 3Bet my check raise on the flop I figured he'd hit the flop but was one card short of a flush. So he either was holding KhKx (which indicates I wasn't even paying attention to the card ranks on the flop lol) or AhAx or AhKx, but he was not the type to force the action with only a draw.
Here's a video of how the hand played out ...
I'll explain the turn and river when 24 hours is up. IF there is an imaginary future payout for the winner and there is no winner within 24 hours, that imaginary future payout that may or may not exist will be rolled over into the next imaginary pot on the next "What am I holding?" post. ;)
Winner = The person who correctly guesses the correct ranks and suits of the two cards I am holding in this hand within 24 hours of this post. There may or may not be a bonus for anyone that can guess the percentages for the "Hero" in this hand on the flop and turn.
This game has been completed and won by @pfunk. See the comments section.
The Correct Answer : 
QhQ?
Not sure about your check raise size on the flop or your calls flop and turn
reasons. ;)
well the c-bet size I think is to small to get rid of any Ah draw. the flop call is a maybe (for me) due to drawing odds. and the turn call you are losing to so much and drawing dead to Ah if a heart comes, maybe big c-bet on turn is better but I dont like that either.
But I've not played much in a few years so I am rusty af so may be miles off on all this
I can't argue with that. If he was holding Ah he had between 31% and 79% to hit that fourth heart by the river, depending upon how many if any hearts I was holding.
Your logic is correct. I will say that my thoughts were on the fact that he only had
6.814BB remaining after betting the turn.I have to think that you were likely playing for a flush after the flop, if you were playing "loose aggressive." The pre-flop 19% tells me that you probably had a face card and a high number? Then you raised and called after.
I'm thinking A-8 or A-10. One of them hearts. No idea which one would give you the flush or what the other card was. So, completely guessing - Ah8s.
Part of your answer is correct. ;)
EDIT - I missed the part where you thought he was holding Ah.
So, I'm going to guess again...9h8s?
That would be reasonable-ish on the turn, but terrible on the flop. We have him check-minraising with a OESD on a 3flush board, where (going by his read) at least two of his outs aren't live (because they complete V's big one card flush) , and where his opponent has a very strong redraw.
I can't have Ah because I'm afraid Villain might have Ah. ;)
Nope. No 8, no 9.
Damn. Which part was initially correct?
pfunk guessed correctly. Qh10h.
edit -- revising my guess (it was initially 8h9h)
You had an underset. After running the numbers, it looks like an underset in exactly the same suit as your opponent.
My first guess is 6s6c
If i get two guesses, my second guess is 7s 7c.
the reason i prefer 6s6c is because you seem like youd be a pretty laggy fellow to begin with, and i think there's a slightly greater chance that you would 4! the sevens, especially if you were more laggy than usual and playing against a guy who you thought percieved you as a donkey.
The only thing i don't get is why not raise him for his last 13BBs on the turn.
On the flop, you made him for a big pair and a big draw, but you reopened the action for an amount that gave you nearly no fold equity. This means that you must have believed that you had AxKh crushed. You were trying to min CR him to provoke a 3! all-in. And even if he shows up with the made flush after you get all the money in, youre still doing OK.
You might have flopped a made flush, but that needs to charge AhKx more for the draw. A min cr there would be ridiculous. ANd youre not really trying to provoke an all in against a big pair and a NFD with a small flush.
in one hour? did someone break time?
:) I will address this later.
Later : Yes exactly. I was certain I had him crushed on the flop and turn; because of the way he played up until that point (and his hand history) I was confident in the 3 hands I could possibly put him on.
=)
@joshua @bigpchef
OK, so @pfunk was correct, I'm holding Qh10h and flopped the flush.
After the flop (which was near perfect), the plan was to extract as much as possible from my opponent and the heart coming on the river ruined that plan, unless they shipped on the river, but they wisely checked.
I feel that had the heart not come on the river and the board did not pair that he would have called any bet. That was what I hoped for from the flop. He actually bet more than I expected on the turn. I would have likely reraised anything less and he would have likely shipped it right there, which was fine with me too.
Also I thought that if I did bet the river with 4 hearts on the board my outcomes were that he would fold or if he called he likely had the Ah. Online the action is much faster and I didn't really have time to process everything, but my gut instinct there was to check/call his 14BB. If he had the Ah, yeah I'm an idiot for not trying to force him out earlier.
In hindsight I could have played it differently and likely taken his entire stack.
I updated my post to reflect that I'm posting my thoughts during the time the hand was played and didn't even notice that the Kh was on the flop. That should give a little more of a hint in to what I could have had. ;)
BTW, feel free to keep guessing. This is not one guess only, it's just more impressive with fewer attempts. ;)