Nostrachainus

I write a lot across many areas. Sometimes when I scroll through or search for something I come across my work but hardly remember that I am the one who had written it. It is quite interesting but not unexpected considering my memory for such things.

Yesterday, I wrote a little about some of the news FUD that has been spread about BTC but, there was also experts giving their opinions. I wonder, do they recall their words, do they recognize all the times they have been wrong? Or are the financial analysts much more like gamblers than they would like to admit, only remembering the wins.

It is interesting to me though when it comes to my own predictions about the future. For some of mine, even the mid-term views are a little short but I wonder, will they hold up?

The internet and the blockchain is going to reveal some very interesting things in the future isn't it? Just think about the people who have been seen as leaders who have got it wrong and the unknowns who have got it right. Think of all of the analysts who laughed heartily at Nassim Taleb's predictions of the market and his black swan events, until they happened. Where are those experts now? Yep, still doing the same thing, predicting the future to the many people who listen and make their decisions based on their advice.

But, we now have a lot of access to voicing our own opinions and putting our thoughts on record. I myself do it daily and I am not alone. But I wonder if in time, we would be able to collate the information over a long period and see who was actually predictive and who could see into the future. Would we discover anything of interest?

Anyone can get a few calls in a lifetime correct by chance but, what level of consistency is needed to truly be classed a predictor. I know that for me, I have managed to get quite a few things in the ballpark by having a wide data point network, experts across unrelated industry.

Many experts and specialists stay narrow giving them their specialty but, if you look across industries, it is possible to see some trends take shape early. Each expert thinks they are trailblazing but, when they are all doing it simultaneously, are they all at the front?

This is the same for all kinds of predictions though as the larger and more diverse the data set, the higher the probability of being predictive. This is big data isn't it. Something that should be changing the world rapidly as all manners of interactions and overlaps could indicate illness or the environmental factors that lead to them as well as a whole range of tweaks to improve life. The sad thing I find is that for the most part, they are used to maximize sales of the irrelevant to us.

I wonder if in the future we could get our own personalized big data where all of the information on us and that we have produced can be sorted to give ourselves a view of who we are. Will we see our conflicts in behavior, all the times we have made mistakes and predicted poorly? Would it help us change?

People like these various personality tests that tell them who they are but, how accurate are they? With personalized big data, we would find out if our ideals about ourselves are actually predictive of our behaviors. I know that we all have conflicts but how big are the gaps?

I read an interesting post by someone the other day who said one thing about being highly trusted and in the comments section openly lied about their position on something. Now, the person they lied to didn't know it was a lie and this indicates the truth of trust but, does the liar recognize the lie in themselves?

We all lie don't we? through our conflict between what we believe we are and who we behave as but, without the recognition of this, is it a lie at all? We believe making it not a lie but, also not the truth. How do we feel about these things when we discover it in ourselves, do our beliefs change, our ego vanish or do we deny?

What I find interesting in a lot of the news today is the amount of conflict they have from day to day that goes unrecognized and, has no cost to them. They can drive a front page sensationalized story that is false and print a retraction on page 20. The worst part is that we as the audience do recognize many of the times they are wrong yet, we keep watching and keep thinking that learning what they deliver is of importance.

I do think that in the future we are going to have a much higher level and granular level view of ourselves and I do think that based on it, we could have the chance to change for the better. But, I also think that this data will be available to those who, like now, will use it to control us and manipulate us into acting the way they want us to act, predictably.

Taraz
[ a Steemit original ]