NFC Divisional Round Matchup Breakdown

It's a big weekend for football fans across the country as we will be treated to two great matchups in the NFC. We have the defending NFC-Champion Atlanta Falcons making the trip to Philadelphia to take on the number one seeded Eagles. On the other side, we have a rematch between the New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings in Minnesota. Without further ado, let's get into the matchups.

Atlanta Falcons AT Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Falcons -3

The first game of the weekend should be a doozie. The Atlanta Falcons pulled off the upset last week over the young LA Rams to send them through to the next round. The Eagles on the other hand limped into the playoffs behind backup quarterback Nick Foles' shaky performances. The Eagles still managed to secure the #1 overall seed in the NFC despite scoring 0 points in their week 17 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys.

How Philadelphia Wins

The key for the Eagles is to slow down the game. The Eagles had the third best rushing attack this season behind only the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Dallas Cowboys and averaged 132.2 rushing yards per game. Atlanta's defense is extremely fast and quite strong on the perimeter so I expect a heavy dose of LaGarrette Blount in this one. If Philly can wear down the Atlanta front seven by getting 3-4 yards on first down, Atlanta will be forced to bring safeties down into the box, which will open up big plays in the play-action game. If Nick Foles is forced to win this game for Philadelphia, the Eagles will have a tough time making it to next weekend.

How Atlanta Wins

The key for Atlanta is to capitalize on red-zone opportunities. The Falcons were 23rd in the league in red-zone touchdown percentage at a mere 50%. If the Falcons want to make it to a second consecutive NFC-Championship game, they will need to score touchdowns when they make it into the red area. Julio Jones scored his first red-zone touchdown in last weekend's win over the Rams, so hopefully things are looking up for the talented receiver. When Atlanta gets a lead, they can really open up the playbook for quarterback Matt Ryan to hand the ball off to the two-headed monster that is Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. If Atlanta can convert in the red-zone against this stout Philly defense, they should be looking at a win.

Key Matchup

The biggest matchup in this game will be Nick Foles against the Atlanta secondary. Atlanta's pass defense was stellar against the Rams last week and gave up only 259 yards through the air, much of which came in garbage time with the Falcons having a comfortable cushion. In Foles' last outing, he threw for only 39 yards on 11 attempts against the Cowboys who were similar in passing defense to Atlanta over the regular season. The Eagles coaching staff should make certain that they don't put Foles in third-and-long situations where Atlanta's speedy pass rush can have free reign. We have seen solid performances from Foles in the past, including a record-tying 7 touchdowns in 2013. But that was 5 years ago, and this is not the same Nick Foles. This Eagles team will live and die by Foles, and for Eagles fans, that should be an anxiety-inducing proposition.

Prediction

Falcons 27 - Eagles 24

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New Orleans Saints AT Minnesota Vikings

Line: Vikings -4

The final game of the weekend is a rematch of a week one matchup that the Vikings won 29-19 in Minnesota. Both teams look far different from that week one matchup as Minnesota will have a different starting quarterback in Case Keenum and runningback with rookie Dalvin Cook going down with an injury. In that week one matchup, the Saints rushed for only 60 yards, which was their second lowest of the season. The Saints are coming in hot after a close win against divisional-rival Carolina last week, but the Vikings are fighting for a home-field Super Bowl.

How Minnesota Wins

It all comes down to stopping this potent Saints offense. The Saints averaged a whopping 129.4 rushing yards per game and went 11-2 in games in which they rushed for 85 yards or more. The Vikings on the other hand were tops in the league in points allowed per game at a mere 15.8. The Saints flipped the script last week against the Panthers and rushed for only 41 yards against the stout Carolina front seven that stacked extra men in the box to stifle the New Orleans running attack. Drew Brees responded by throwing for 369 yards and two touchdowns. Minnesota's offense is solid enough, but they won't be able to compete with the Saints in a shootout, therefore, stopping or at least slowing down Drew Brees and the Saints offense will be paramount to Minnesota securing the victory.

How New Orleans Wins

Pressure Case Keenum. New Orleans' defense was near the top of the league in sacks and interceptions, both of which go hand in hand. Cameron Jordan anchors a defensive line that averaged 2.6 sacks per game and if New Orleans wants a chance at the Super Bowl, they will need a big game from their defensive line. Keenum threw only seven interceptions on the season, but if the Saints are able to pressure Keenum, he has been known to be reckless with the football. The Vikings lost only three games on the season and two of those came when the team failed to score double digits. If New Orleans can get pressure from their defensive line, they will be able to disrupt Keenum's rhythm and that is where Keenum is at his weakest.

Key Matchup

This game will be decided in the trenches. Both teams have a pro-bowler on their defensive line with Cameron Jordan for the Saints and Everson Griffen for the Vikings. Depending on whose offensive line can control the line of scrimmage, the game flow could shift dramatically in one direction or the other. While both teams have been run-first throughout the season, New Orleans has the ability to win a pass-happy game, whereas the Vikings are hoping to avoid such a scenario. The Vikings offensive line must be able to open up holes for runningbacks Jerrick McKinnon and Latavius Murray if Minnesota is to have any shot at winning this one.

Prediction

Vikings 21 - Saints 13

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And there you have it folks. The two NFC matchups and how I believe they will turn out. I'm personally excited to see a Vikings-Falcons NFC championship because both teams have a chance to win a Super Bowl with vastly different narratives. For the Falcons, it would be exorcising the demons of last year's Super Bowl, and for the Vikings it would be becoming the first team ever to play a home Super Bowl. We'll just have to wait and find out! Stay tuned for my AFC matchup breakdown.

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