RE: Are the dates of 'terror' events predictable by analysing numerology used by secret societies?
we are approaching the data with different intentions and understandings about how to make the data useful.
Terrorist attacks are thought to be independent of each other in terms of their date within the year - so i am not sure exactly why it is necessary to include in other terrorist attacks to calculate the probability that a specific set of events are timed randomly or not in relation to each other.
i did consider using all of the available dates of terrorist attacks, but then the issue becomes very cloudy - since many of the attacks are just one guy stabbing one other guy.. so where do we draw the line? maybe some are genuinely terrorist in nature and some are not. from our position, we do not know for sure all of the details of every event.
for that and other reasons i chose the more general approach that i chose.
in any case, you wrote that:
"The chance of 2 terrorist attacks share the same day of the year is number of total terrorist attacks/365"
the formula for probability is generally:
probability = events / number of outcomes
so p = 2 (terror events) / 365
p = 0.0054794520547945
p = 0.54%
I think you are convinced there is a significant pattern between terrorist attacks and there is no statistical explanation that can convince you it may be just a chance not so unlikely. So this discussion is over for me.
i know that the truth does not need to be convincing. i am open to there being proof of a statistical connection or proof of the absence of such a connection. it's ultimately just maths so there should be no controversy - that is why i am using maths in the first place - to eliminate controversy. the controversy can be removed by just sticking to looking at the numbers.