Nate Silver's polling averages fwiw.

He's weighting more recent polls more than older polls, but as far as I can tell still includes older polls.

So these averages may be underestimating Harris' polling given her polling after she became the nominee is much better than her polling before Biden dropped out.

Love to see Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada competitive again. The Sunbelt really opens up a lot of paths to 270.

Pennsylvania still looks like the tipping point state. You can understand why Josh Shapiro is a top contender for the vice presidential pick. Pennsylvania has a high chance at being the whole ballgame.

The good news is that this polling is consistent with an electoral college bias of only 0.4%. In 2020, the electoral college bias was a whopping 3.9%. In other words Biden had to win the national popular vote by 3.9 points to win the election.