Why You Can Trust Technical Analysis

in #money7 years ago

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For multiple generations, investors have relied upon the discipline of technical analysis to assess the risk/reward balance of potential procurements. Technical analysis has a critical advantage over fundamental analysis in that the price charts reflect near-real time sentiment in the markets. In contrast, fundamental analysis primarily depends on corporate financial statements -- and those only come out on a quarterly basis.

However, technical analysis is not without its critics. The most common attack against the methodology is that its prognostications are based on unquantifiable assertions. In laymen terms, it's nonsense; nothing more than mumbo-jumbo dressed up in advanced lexicon. Underneath the hood, critics claim, lay nothing more than tealeaf readings or other woefully unproven disciplines.

But is that really all that there is? A bunch of financial quacks pulling opinions out of their rear ends? It begs the question the question that if that were the case, why hasn't someone raised the alarm by now? In the age of financial accountability, you'd think an already overbearing watchdog community would have blasted market technicians as charlatans.

Indeed, the reality of the matter is that people already trust technical analysis -- they just may not realize it! To get the full crux of my argument, please read my latest article at Crush The Street, here -- https://crushthestreet.com/articles/breaking-news/trust-technical-analysis

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The energy of economics has many influencers. Emotion being one of them. Greed being another. Man made manipulation is also apparent. Sometimes I question the entire stock market as these days it just seems to run on cycles rather than fundamentals and corporate statements. I am seeing a cleaning out of my stock portfolio regardless of the announcements and I feel something is coming and some of the big boys have already pressed their brokers for major portfolio selling in preparation. In particular the last three months. Maybe this attention has moved to the crypto sector which is highly likely and will continue for some years yet.

That's an excellent point about mainstream investors moving over to the cryptos ... that would certainly help explain the dramatic rise in the digital markets that we've seen in recent months.

Also, I'm hedged like crazy on the paper markets...I can either gain a few percentage points a year, or suffer one cataclysmic drop like we had in 2008. It just doesn't seem like it's worth the risk.

I moved out of stocks. Not entirely but I am only invested in very selected areas. Graphene tech, nano dotz, medicinal marijuana and mining stocks. Gold and Silver. Moved everything else to crypto. I have minimised and removed exposure to all else. They don't interest me any more and I don't align with it either. Blockchain is the future and I feel the stock market will have to follow suit. If you are not on the chain you are obsolete.

Yup, that pretty much sums up my portfolio!

I was turned onto technical analysis last October/November. In all my curriculum in finance so far, it occupied only a couple pages and is poo-poo'ed by faculty--save for one, who no longer teaches courses on it. I had noticed though that every major firm and investing bank seems to have someone putting out an article or a soundbite on technicals, so I asked about it and started reading up on it, and I'm glad I did.
Lot's to learn, and the various indicators always seem to be coming into vogue and out again. Very intriguing field.

Thanks for your comment...I didn't realize it was mentioned at all by official educational curriculum, although the discipline not getting respect doesn't surprise me. What they don't realize is that using fundamentals is also a form of forecasting...and I would argue an inferior approach. For example, certain "sacrosanct" fundamental tools, like P/E ratios, are overused and don't really provide great information as it relates to future market probabilities.

It looks mostly relegated to "behavioral" finance, which in my opinion isn't really technical, it's another field.
The faculty that showed it to me didn't recommend actual textbooks in the traditional sense, but the main publications on the topic, like Bollinger, DuPlessis, Magee and Edwards, Linton, Dalhquist, and several others and told me to read their books rather than take tests.

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