Speculation Rule: buy when others are IRRATIONALLY pessimistic/cautious
At the low of an investment, everyone is pessimistic and vowing to never again “buy that shit”. They panic or attrition capitulate to go massively short and sell irrationally.
Irrational Emotional Expectations Pessimism
This also seems to be the case on the way back up, especially a frustrating, meandering slow rise (after that $10 to $1000 moonshot in 2013 which is what everyone is lusting for), as pessimism causes people to find any excuse to give as to why “that shit still isn't ready for prime time”:
jondeen707 wrote:
kwukduck wrote:
Consider all the flaws in bitcoin at protocol level.
Bitcoin does not scale!
Bitcoin is not anonymous!
Bitcoin is a privacy risk!
Bitcoin is too slow for real world applications!
Bitcoin does not allow much more than just fake fantasy money unlike many smart dynamic blockchains!
Bitcoin is mostly owned and controlled by a hand full of people!
Bitcoin makes you suspect of illegal activities!With few exceptions, the same can be said about fiat currencies. ;)
Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful
That is billionaire Warren Buffett's famous quip.
Several crypto investors have complained to me about the (miners) wrangling over Blockstream's changes to Bitcoin, and even the potential technical clusterfuck of Lightning Networks.
This to me is indicative of the time to buy with both fists. As I ( @anonymint ) wrote:
iamnotback wrote:
pereira4 wrote:
Classic triangle pattern forming if you look back at the last big august correction. Then we had another correction, a weaker one, and now, another weaker one. Increasingly weaker corrections with an overall uprising price: breakout incoming. Last chance for the idiots still doubting to buy to get in now or never.
r0ach ( @r0achtheunsavory ) or anyone, do you have any analysis you can share on the likely direction of the BTC price between now and December?
I had written in your blog last month that this looks like a pause on the way for probably all time highs, given a cpu&handle at $700 [actually high $700s]. What are you seeing in your current analysis?
Don't worry about whether Bitcoin is perfected yet. It is just time for it to go back to ATHs (all time highs) because there are finally major upgrades on the way. Buy rumor, then sell the news. Meaning you are buying the fact that crypto is (blockchains are) progressing and not sell because of the realization it isn't perfect yet. The problems of crypto will get worked out over time via competition between altcoins and Bitcoin. Right now, the smart (early mover) money is selling altcoins to buy Bitcoin in anticipation of the big move up which appears to probably be finally upon us.
Smart Speculators Trade the Waves
Then at ATHs next year, they will likely be selling BTC to buy into altcoins for the next wave of 10 - 100X gains on the serious altcoins.
Learn how the smart money is getting rich in crypto (trading between BTC and altcoins, and buying serious altcoin ICOs and holding for the 10X price rise). You need to first toss out your emotions and learn to think rationally.
Strong Dollar Macroeconomics
Also on the macroeconomic front, the USA election (ditto BREXIT and Duterte's election in the Philippines) is destabilizing the world (regardless who wins, but a Trump victory is very likely for those read Drudge Report on polls and not the liar MSM). And Europe is nearing the end of its rope to “pretend and extend” on its horrific debt crisis (actually socialism/welfare/ideological clusterfuck). Martin Armstrong's correct theme has been the dollar as the reserve currency (and other highly liquid safe havens, e.g. Bitcoin and perhaps not gold) would rise as the world descended into the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Gold will likely rise more later as a hedge against government, when liquidity has been forsaken for survival. First the world moves to liquidity, later to panic.
The dollar has been rising against every fiat currency since roughly 2013 and in many cases since 2011 when gold peaked.
So far I haven't seen that a strong dollar is anti-correlated to BTC price, although afaik we do see that anti-correlation with gold.
Very true. This is why I'm writing as much as possible in Steemit now days.
And it is very important to also know when to sell:: Sell wheni it feels too comfortable to hold. Stock market pros always go out of the market when the financial establishment tries to present the stock market as a safe investment.
As the saying goes - it's time to buy "when there is blood in the streets" Gotta be patient for that moment. It comes after people think it's "cheap to buy" because it's down so much....once something goes lower from there, that's when its time to get in. Learned that lesson hard way with oil stocks two years ago.
But I am also writing about the fear and emotional excuses that languish after the low has been reached (in this case which was $150 for Bitcoin).
Also readers would learn even more by clicking the links I have provided.
The Bitfinex hack overreaction was another buying opportunity.
See any similarity with the above chart and the typical one for new investments: