Dear World: How Would You Value STEEM Hunt? - A Mini-Analysis On The Token Economics
As I mentioned in my Dlike post market sentiments is an important factor when it comes to short term trading and price movements
The way I see is that when it comes to the immediate term trading, it's all about sentiment. I mean have you seen a sudden spike/dip in prices after some announcement. Ever seen a pump and dump in action? There were no fundamentals considered when it comes to 99.9999% traders. It's just sentiment. But just as belief won't cook your food nor feed your hunger, sentiment is short lived unless it is backed by fundamentals.
Longer the time frame is, lower the effect of sentiment becomes. This is my trading wisdom
So I'm going to be asking you about HUNT Token. It's a clone of Product Hunt that is functionally superior to the product it is ripping-off. I presented some statistics in this article of mine.
But They Are More Than A Clone
Reviewhunt will be a great place to get the attention of and cater to early adopter types in the tech market. Ideahunt is pretty much like any other crowdfunding website. https://fundition.io has been successfully using the blockchain to fund mostly charity events and few open source projects and blockchain based gaming projects. Ideahunt can easily be made to a more commercialized version of Fundition and these things are what's supposed to give the token its value.
Now value is a subjective thing. There are no futures markets for most cryptocurrencies and it's hard to measure price signals. That's why I'm trying to test the waters by making a post.
1) Hunters earn HUNT tokens by sharing/upvoting cool new products on Steemhunt community. Makers can also be hunters by sharing their own products.
2) Makers buy HUNT tokens to post bounties or sell products with discounted prices in Reviewhunt in return for quality reviews. Hunters can use HUNT tokens to purchase products or earn tokens from makers.
3 )Makers run crowdfunding campaigns in Ideahunt. Hunters can use their HUNT tokens to participate/purchase products.
SMTs Are Out On March 24, 2019
According to the roadmap Reviewhunt platform and Ideahunt platform will be released on Q2 and Q3 respectively. According to practically every Technical Analyst, this is a good enough time for the crypto market to have its new renaissance. We also have to consider that most crypto projects gets valued highly at release due to hype. There is also going to be an eventual marketplace planned for Q2 2020
With 500 million HUNT Token supply, What do you think the marketcap would look like? There are no competitors. But You can take a look at this:
That's About 600 Million USD Per Year - 1.64 Million USD Per Day
What brings value to the HUNT Token is the demand from Reviewhunt and Ideahunt. Without those two, there is no reason to switch from STEEM. Eventual there will be a marketplace too. But that will take bit of time. These are nowhere near perfect methods to get an idea. But after considering that there is a demand from 2 platforms, 50-100 million USD marketcap does't sound too outrageous in my opinion as we are talking about an already working product built on powerful DPoS infrastructure.
How Much Will You Pay?
Above marketcaps would suggest a 10-20 cent price for HUNT Tokens. Will you pay this price? Will you pay more? What is your upper limit? When will you go take my money and get me HUNT Tokens. I'd say 1 cent would be a Fire sale. Now turn STEEM into a crowd knowledge hub and try to understand the markets.
I love the idea behind your future's market sounding post. Unfortunately I am far too conservative with both my opinions and my wallets to offer much help here.
I am the type of guy that sells air drops for more tried and true coins. That may not be the case for all these SMT's though. I do want to understand the mechanism behind the SMT, how much steem are they locking up (if any) and how is each one reaching out to get new users outside of our current steem ecosystem.
Once each d.app-ish platform can onboard new users with their RC mechanisms, I expect us to have another data point to be able to measure which SMT communities will be successful. Those platforms that least rely on existing steem users and most successfully bring new users in and retain them will have the most valuable SMT's. That is my prediction and that is the data point I will be measuring when I decide which of these to dump and which to hold on to (and maybe even buy ;)
Hype is really powerful in the short term and on-boarding new users is surely gong to contribute to that. So you are looking at a very good metric. @steemhunt is the only SMT that I'm fully confident in. There could be a sell-off when trading start because so many people got free tokens and market will have to slowly discover their prices. But that's more of a short to mid term indicator for me.
For the long run, all I'm looking for is the demand. One reason @ned was hugely bullish on STEEM was because SMTs create more demand for bandwidth and Automated Market Makers for liquidity and both require STEEM to be locked up. MCO cards require you to lock up 50 - 50,000 MCO for 6 months to get your card (except for the lowest tier one) With 31,587,682 MCO supply they can only issue 1260 top tier cards a best per year. They also buy MCO from the open market to pay cashback rewards and you can get credit upto 60% of the value of your MCO holdings. I want to see something like this in the SMTs to really start buying. HUNT Token is mostly a HODL for me at the moment. Until their other 2 platforms and marketplace pick up, there won't be much real organic demand.
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