I don't bother with believing. I observe the facts. Can you present me with data. Then I make a projection based on that data. But even then I don't say something will for certain happen based on that data until it in fact does happen because the world is a big place and new data can always present itself and new things can happen. In my experience one of the many problems with the whole conspiracy theory thing is lack of citations. People read something in one spot, make some connections in their head, write an article in another spot and then don't cite where they got their knowledge in the first place. Sometimes this can't be avoided given the nature of information leaking but still it seems to be a common problem.