India's successful struggle against the cash. Is this the beginning of the war against the Money ?
The number itself was not even the most important. The most interesting news in India on Tuesday was another question when the data for economic growth were announced in the last quarter of 2016: Is the country growing even faster than the old rival China? Or has Beijing taken the lead again?
No, is the calming answer for India's government. The economy last rose by 7.0 percent - significantly more than in China, where the rate in the fourth quarter was 6.8 percent. India remains the fastest growing big economy in the world. At the same time, growth in India was far higher than expected. Many had expected a sharp drop below the 7 percent mark, and in some cases estimates were only 5 to 6 percent.
The reason for the pessimism was that of the Government Modi of 8 November, which had shaken the economy of the country and caused a worldwide outrage. At that time, she had declared the notes of 500 Rupees (6.90 Euros) and 1000 Rupees (13.80 Euros) as worthless. Since these were the most frequently used banknotes, 86 per cent of the paper money was affected. Although old notes could be exchanged, but only with an official registration of the sum.
In this way black money should be withdrawn from circulation and the rampant corruption should be combated. However, the action caused temporary chaos because not enough new bills were available or the exchange did not work. Many believed that economic growth had declined drastically.
"India will never be the same again"
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taught them all better. And so the view of the action, which economists call "demonetarization", is changing. The OECD promptly praised it on Tuesday and explained that the long-term benefits of possible short-term costs always upset. "India will never be the same after the demonetisation," said OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria. And he said that positively.
This is a welcome backwind for the Prime Minister. For the latter had started as a reformer and has also had some successes in recent years. "Prime Minister Modi has probably tackled so many reforms as no one else in the world," praised Bill Madonaldo, Chief Investment Advisor for Asia at HSBC Asset Management.
In fact, the government's reform agenda is long, and some have already been implemented. For example, the diesel subsidies were abolished , the state-controlled coal mine sector was opened up for private and foreign investments, as well as the railway sector and the area of large construction projects , the bureaucracy around company licenses was purged and the processing of bankrupt companies simplified. All this has already led to the economy becoming more efficient and there is hope that the infrastructure will finally be improved by more investment.
On the other hand, many other projects are still unfinished, above all the reform of the tax system. For now, all 29 Indian states have levied their own taxes , which leads to enormous logistical and bureaucratic expenses for domestic trade. The Federal Parliament has now amended the constitution so that the introduction of a single VAT is now possible, but it has not yet been introduced, as no majority has been found in parliament. The OECD has now called on India to continue on this path, and Modi will be happy to accept this.
The reforms brought the state forward
Even his promise to simplify the establishment of companies, however, Modi has not yet been realized. On the so-called Doing Business Index of the World Bank, which measures how easy it is to set up and run a company, India has still ranked 130th, just as in the previous year. When it comes to how quickly you get a building permit, the country even appears on rank 185 - from 190.
Here, Modi meets tough and unruly management, which is also one of the country's greatest growth obstacles. And to curb them seems hardly possible. Modi did just that in his home state of Gujarat as prime minister. There, he had drastically thinned the bureaucracy and carried out many economic reforms that brought the state clearly to the front. That is why he was elected to the Indian Premier in 2014.
However, critics note today that Gujarat has always had a very business-friendly climate. Therefore, the reforms were relatively simple. The rest of the country looks quite different. "The bureaucracy is notoriously corrupt and slow," writes the Indian economist Swaminathan S. Anlesaria Aiyar in a survey of the reforms of the past 25 years, thus bringing the problem to the point. A lot has already been achieved in the last quarter century. Aiyar reports in his study how the founder of the software company Infosys had to wait for a telephone connection for a year in the early 1980s and three years on the authorization to import a computer. By comparison, India's administration has become much more flexible today.
And yet it remains a Herculean task to purge the bureaucracy and bring it at least to the level of China. With his big blow of the Bargeldreform and with the proof that this ultimately did not hurt, Modi now goes however strengthened into a new round of the fight. Above all, investors are therefore already fully joyful expectation. "There are plenty of reasons to be enthusiastic about India," says HSBC man Madonaldo. The chances are therefore good that India continues to open up to the rival China. And maybe even overtook him someday. Especially in Beijing, there is currently a standstill in the reforms.
I think the Money we know, will not exist anymore in max. 10 years. If the people want it or not, thats not an democratic decision, it is a decision of the government and (more important) of the Banks! So if we pay with digital cryptocurrencies, the Bank could sell those Informations, like where do we buy ? How much money we pay there ? How often we are in a market ? These Informations could be sold and this will happen, thats a fact. The cryptocurrencies we know, are only the beginning, so i think its the perfect time to invest in Cryptocurrencies ! And do not hold them too long !
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