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RE: CASHFLOW OR CAPITAL APPRECIATION? - WHAT IS THE TRUE VALUE OF STEEMPOWER?

in #investment7 years ago

I would have to agree with you that the reason why people are invested in Steemit through Steempower value cash flow more than capital appreciation. Personally, I value Steempower more so than the capital appreciation of Steem simply because I prefer consistent and reliable income so I can leverage on the future cash flow to acquire more assets. By snowballing, what may seem like a trickle will eventually become a stream then to a monsoon river.

However, from an investment point of view, it's hard to actually evaluate the intrinsic value of the platform Steemit since its value proposition is unlike any products we've ever seen on the market so far. Current valuation model relies on discounted cash flow where the interest rate plays a vastly important role on current valuation (I refer to investopedia for the formula).

Alternatively, you can also calculate valuation via dividend discount model. Both ways of calculation should yield you a different valuation.

Now, the fundamental assumption for using such models is that the business has a "proven" history of the business. In the case of Steemit, what is the value proposition that it's providing to the marketplace? Is it somewhat like Facebook where it's generating advertisement revenue? Or is it like Twitter? (Note, Twitter haven't really been able to generate revenue that's why its stock price is free falling)

I would have to say that Steemit is creating a revenue stream through user acquisition via tokenization. The valuation model that I mentioned depends on actual "fiat" revenue. Since there's no way to actually value Steem directly (you have to trade Steem for bitcoin and then to fiat), the models don't really work in this context.

That's why financiers and many banks are slow to adopt blockchain technologies and cryptocurrencies. There's simply no way to actually value the marketplace other than pure speculation. From the risk perspective, investing in Steemit like investing in a pool of mud: it's extremely risky and the outcome is very very unclear.

Besides, if we were to evaluate Steem dollars like fiat, then the runaway inflation of Steem also pose a huge problem (think of the returns of investing in Steempower like interests gained in a bank account). Honestly, banks truly truly hate risk unless they know for sure that they can make money with a high probability of success. Furthermore, cryptocurrencies are a threat to traditional way of banking which makes bankers detest them even more.

That's why most bankers would dismiss Steemit as a scam and a Ponzi scheme. I would say treat any investment, be it in crypto or traditional asset, as money you are willing and can afford to lose.

My 2 cents worth even though I did not work in the investment banking department.

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Very good comment. Just want to clarify: the inflation is only 10% per year...it is no longer as it was in the beginning.

Inflation hurts everyone and people who keep harboring thoughts about "free money" should banish such ideas. The reason why people flock to Bitcoin is simplying because it has the value proposition to function much like "gold."

Scarcity is not always a bad thing though. I look forward to read more high quality post from you and engage in though provoking discussions. :D

Also, the inflation of any currency, be it fiat or crypto, needs to be justified by its demand. If there's no demand then on the long run, its value will be essentially worthless. Now, if we were to treat steem dollars as a "proxy" for fiat money, 10% rate of inflation seems extraordinarily high.

Inflation of the Euros and US dollars are below 5% per annum. If the number of active users stop to grow, it will definitely hurt people who are deeply invested in this platform.

Bitcoin's inflation rate was 30% to 50% before 2011. I think we are okay.

Future expectations for inflation are also critically important for a currency and everyone knew the disinflationary path that Bitcoin was coded for. I'm not sure we can say that as easily about Steem, can we?

U.S. Inflation averaged 1.9% over the past ten years. I don't think the Euro has been much different. 10% inflation per year causes your purchasing power to drop by half every 7 years, not good.

I also find it difficult to assess Stem as a way of earning. It's not known what price will be in his tokens in a year. Yes there, even after a week!

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