RE: Card Counting, Investing, and Taking Advantage of Asymmetry
I think luck plays a bigger part than most people think... I've never been lucky in any of my investments.
It went to $9.40 and my $30k went to $239k at the peak (the options I bought for $0.40 were now worth around $4.80).
That was pure luck... and out of all the risky bets I've taken I've never seen any play out well for me. So I kinda gave up.
I have nearly $50K sinked into BTC over the last 2.5 years and I have a feeling I'm just never gonna see any decent profit. If I do it'll be marginal thanks to my bad luck. I also bought $2500 worth of SP and completely regret it because even with the interest rate over the last month my Wallet value shrunk by $1500 and now that money is stuck for 2 years.... the inflation rate of Steem is ridiculous and the interest does not counter it, at least not at the moment from what I'm seeing. Also no one has any idea if Steem will be around in 2 years so I feel completely foolish buying SP... at least you are earning it though posts like this
Buying at the short term peak doesn't make it a bad investment. Not trying to sound too critical. SP is designed to hedge against 90% of inflation..so as I understand it if market cap stays the same you'd lose 10% in a year on SP. Steem Dollars are set to gain 10% per year regardless of Steem pricing. I made a much less popular post suggesting that if total amount of Steem Dollars ever exceeded Steem market cap, holders of Steem Dollars would lose their money. I am still not 100% sure that's accurate but I believe it is. Despite that I like my odds here. Sorry it hasn't worked for you (at least not yet)