The IGNIS ICO starts soon and I see a lot of questions on what you should do during the ICO/Snapshot phase. I tried to summarize some scenarios on how to invest during the ICO and what the possible outcome after the snapshot in Oct/Nov will be.
These scenarios also show you until when it is rational to participate in the ICO (maybe you do not have the chance in Round 1 or 2) or when is it better to wait for the snapshot.
I take no responsibility for any actions you take based on this post. I need to make some assumptions in order to make predictions. And as we all know, the market is not just mathematics, it's also psychology and therefore not always that easy to predict...
Let's start with the information we have on the ICO (from www.jelurida.com/ico). I took this information and calculated the total NXT which is going to be spent in each ICO round to calculate an average JLRDA price (in NXT) during the ICO.
Then, we need a starting position. In this example we start with 100'000 NXT. I also use the NXT/USD rate (which is not important) and the average JLRDA price in NXT, calculated from the total JLRDA sold in each ICO round with the according price (e.g. 394'000'000/440'000'000).
Now let me show you some possible scenarios on how to invest in the ICO. These are not all options you have, but some of the most common. Depending on which scenario you are following, you have a stock of NXT from which you spent a certain amount during the ICO phase (or you don't spent any, see scenario 1). Then you will see the total NXT you will have after the ICO rounds, which you will keep for the snapshot. You will also have the total amount of IGNIS either from the ICO or the snapshot. In the end, you can see the total value of your original 100'000 NXT investment either in NXT or USD. I recommend comparing the NXT, since the USD is always changing.
(in order to compare the end amount I converted the JLRDA/IGNIS amount to NXT using the average ICO price for 1 JLRDA, see above)
In the above table you see the total amount of NXT (careful, this is your investment worth in NXT in the end) if you are holding all your NXT for the snapshot. Now, if you invest your NXT in ICO round 1, all scenarios will be at least as much worth as the snapshot participation scenario 1. Even scenario 2 and 5 in ICO round 2 are at least as much worth as the snapshot participation.
All of these scenarios work only under the assumption that the JLRDA/IGNIS price in NXT is stable over time. As we know, this is not true. IGNIS could be worth more or less as the average NXT calculated here. But based on what you think where the IGNIS price in NXT will go you can decide which scenario is probably the best for you.
P.S.: In my opinion it is not important if the NXT price in USD drops after the ICO or not because I assume that the IGNIS price is connected to NXT and with these scenarios I only show you where your investment will go, valued in NXT (e.g. I will have more NXT then before).
I hope I could clarify some things regarding the IGNIS ICO. I give no advice on what you should do.
Thank you for reading:)