High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate
Zhu, J., Poulsen, C.J. & Otto-Bliesner, B.L. High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 378–379 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0764-6
I have included the entire letter submitted by Zhu et al. to the Nature periodical. It is freely available to read on other sites, or you can ask for a free copy from the authors themselves.
I want you (the reader) to note the date that this was published: May 2020. To understand the entire justification that humans are responsible (anthropometric) for climate change, you must know that it is because the IPCC uses computer models to predict the future. The model governments use as the foundation of their climate change strategies is RCP - 8.5. It is a model so atrociously inaccurate that the average temperature not only would exceed the 1-degree rise that people are alarmed about but would be around a 4 degrees rise instead.
In the previous IPCC symposium, they used the CMIP5 models to claim anthropometric climate change. At the time, its average prediction was out by about 0.5 degrees (it is out by about 1 degree now).
The most recent IPCC symposium based its conclusions on the CMIP6 model. I haven't been able to find published data runs yet, but the letter at the top shows something to undermine its credibility. These models are supposed to predict the future. When we look at the CMIP5 illustrated above, we can see that between the years 1980 to 1995, although a little high, it was consistent with actual temperatures.
If a model might be considered a potential tool to predict the future, it must predict the past. As the title says, "high climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate." It cannot predict the past. If one looks at the date this was published, the "experts" have known about this inaccuracy for over a year and went ahead anyway.
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Hi @dwarrilow2002, I am super busy with my thesis these days so I am gonna write my thoughts about your posts later, sorry for this.
Will I get to read your thesis?
Why not. I hope I can see it, too 😄
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Hello @ dwarrilow2002 is an interesting post, in which I have no words because I do not understand much about those sciences hehehe
The is one line that springs out. "Moreover, modelled tropical land temperature exceeds 55 °C, which is much higher than the temperature tolerance of plant photosynthesis and is inconsistent with fossil evidence of an Eocene Neotropical rainforest."
Part of Venezuela is a rainforest? The CMIP6 can predict the temperature of different parts of the world based on historical CO2 levels. During the Eocene, CO2 levels ranged from 500-3,000 parts per million. According to the CMIP6, the temperatures in Venezuela would have exceeded 55 °C. Isn't that about 20 °C higher than your highest temperature? Photosynthesis shuts down at lower temperatures (see all the plants in the Sahara desert), and there are lots of fossils to say that didn't happen.
There is a fundamental law with regards to CO2 levels and Temperature. To increase by one degree, you need to double CO2 concentration. The warmest month in Venezuela is in August, and the maximum average temperature is +27.5 °C. Correct me if my reference is wrong. The current average CO2 level is 400 ppm. If we double it to 800 ppm, the temperature will rise to 28.5 °C; 1600 ppm will rise to 29.5 °C; 3200 ppm will rise to 30.5 °C. Your warmest days will be considerably warmer but nowhere near 55 °C.
We have had snow on the ground for a couple of weeks now. We have special snow tires for our cars during the winter. I had delayed having the tires put on this year with the winter tuneup. I don't drive enough for it to be an issue (where can you go when everything is in lockdown). I called up for an appointment today to have the work down, and the snow has all melted. I can't predict the weather tomorrow, so maybe I should talk about this topic.
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