Contest // Topic of the week №58 // Is a world war possible?

Is a world war possible? The short answer is no, the long answer is if there is ever another world war we wouldn’t be around to tell the story - let me explain.

Before we discuss if a world war is possible first we must understand how we got here, how we got to thinking about if a world war is possible and for that, we have to look at the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russia Invasion of Ukraine

Now I already know that most people reading this have heard a thing or two about the war in Ukraine and probably have very strong opinions on which side they are on if they are even on any side, but whether you are of the western view, the Russain view or are indifferent, it is healthy to realize that in this conflict there are no saints - it isn't as black and white as ”good guy” vs “bad guy” but more like “bad guy” vs “worse bad guy”. With that in mind let's briefly revisit events that lead to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

1991, the Soviet Union flag is lowered for the last time, it is the official last day of the existence of the Soviet Union. What many don’t know is that there were behind closed doors conversations that were taking place between the Soviet Union and the West namely between Russia and the US on how to peacefully break up the Soviet Union. A part of these talks included a deal that was unofficially reached between Russia and the US. This deal for which no actual document was signed to make it official, stated that the US was in the future not allowed to offer NATO membership to former Soviet states and in return, Russia would not stoke any tensions by trying to invade former Soviet states and take control of them.

Since then 3 former Soviet states have joined NATO which are Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. NATO is a voluntary military alliance and every country can choose to accept or deny joining the alliance. However, their memberships still gave Russia a reason to invade Ukraine although I think that war under any circumstance is never justified Russia does appear to have a somewhat legitimate grievance. Other events played a part to get us where we are now such as the political changes that have occurred in Ukraine leadership switching from being pro-Russia to pro-western amongst other events that include Russian insurgencies in Ukraine and a great deal of corruption.

Why Ukraine Will Not Cause World War 3

Now that we are all caught up it’s time to explain why Ukraine will not cause World War 3, simply put there are no official or unofficial military agreements between Ukraine and America or the west at large. This means they have no obligation to send military assistance to Ukraine. Essentially means that Russia can quite possibly take over Ukraine without much military resistance from the west, of course as a consequence of this Russia will be given some of the harshest sanctions we have ever seen but these sanctions may not be quite as effective as the west wants them to be because of two reasons. 1. Russia is a mostly self-sufficient economy and 2. Europe and America are heavily reliant on Russian Oil & Gas. The second reason is particularly interesting - if Europe sanctions Russia it would likely pay the price as it would be impacted by high energy prices but the damage to the West may not stop there, our financial systems are inextricably linked. As the global economy we saw during the great recession what impact the recession had on the whole world, a similar effect may occur when Russian financial institutions are forbidden from doing business with the world because of how linked our economies are there are a lot of western businesses that have financial interests tied to Russia’s economy and well Russia’s economy doing badly will not bode well for these institutions. As we saw with the collapse of Lehman brothers during the 2008 crisis when the housing market crashed - it is not far-fetched to think western institutions with financial interests in Russia may collapse and that might cause ripple effects that potentially affect the jobs and livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people outside of Russia. I believe that this combined with the international outcry would probably force both the west and Russia to go to the negotiating table and figure out an agreement. Russia's economy is also the world’s largest wheat supplier meaning that regular people like me and you all over the world will probably feel the effects of Russian sanctions as the prices of essential goods increase.

Apart from the ineffectiveness of sanctions or the potentially disastrous consequences that they might have to the rest of the world. Russia’s military simply does not compare to America’s. America’s defense budget as of 2020 was larger than the next 20 countries combined. Those countries included Russia. America’s technological advancement in military weapons is far greater than Russia’s and Russia knows that. If Russia wanted to pick a fight with NATO they would have invaded its former Soviet states that joined NATO like Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia. But they didn’t - Why? Because they knew they didn’t stand a chance against the US army so they picked a fight they could win. Ukraine didn't have a military partnership with America and had a really weak army compared to Russia. Simply put you only go to war if you think you can win and Russia or any other nation in the world knows that they don’t stand a chance against America. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not going according to what we expected. Military analysts expected Russia to have Ukraine conquered within a week and it is now clear that Russia’s military is not as strong as we thought it was a further reason why they would never start a World War, Ukraine was a strategic invasion choice.

America Doesn’t Want Another World War

Some of you may be asking if World War 3 is not much of a possibility why does America spend so much on its Defence budget. Well, that is because of the military-industrial complex. Private American businesses that have been given contracts by the American government have been making a lot of money starting from World War 2 through to the cold war era, when the cold war ended they didn’t want the money to dry up so to keep the money flowing they begin to aggressively market the idea of America’s security against foreign enemies. We can see this in how massively overblown the terrorist threat is in America which lead to some of the most pointless and devasting wars in the Middle East and Africa. The largest beneficiary of these conflicts was not the countries where US troops were stationed or the American public but the Military contractors of the US military. While these people would have you believe that the threat of World War 3 is real, they only use it to justify America’s military spending when in reality the World is less susceptible to war today than it has ever been in part thanks to organizations of unity like the UN, EU, AU, etc. To satisfy the Military-Industrial complex all America needs to do is sadly keep up pointless proxy wars in Countries in the Middle East and Africa sadly thousands of innocent people are often killed in these proxy wars but now that we have established that America itself isn’t too keen on a world war but prefers proxy wars now we need to look at the other military power of the world - China.

China Has No Incentive To Cause A World War

Most people have fears that China is going to invade Taiwan some time in the future and these fears are valid, unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has a formal working relationship with the U.S military and it is more than likely that if China was to invade Taiwan the US would declare war on China. But here’s why that is likely never going to happen. Ever wonder why Russia chose to invade now, I mean the three former Soviet Countries joined NATO back in the early 2000s if that was Russia's sole reason for invading Ukraine why now why not 2018, 2024 e.t.c The reason why Russia chose to invade now and not later or sooner is because of Oil & gas prices which Russia is a major exporter of are at all-time highs. In a world increasingly shifting towards renewable sources of energy, the current oil & gas prices will never reach these heights again in the future as their demand lessens. China on the other hand has the opposite dynamic, China is aggressively trying to move its country to renewable sources as soon as possible so that it can be less reliant on foreign natural resources exports to keep its electric grid working. China at this moment simply doesn't have an economic incentive to invade Taiwan, China is heavily reliant on the west and the west is heavily reliant on China. Economic sanctions to China are bad for everyone it will cripple the world economy as they say everything is made in China, China is at the heart of the global supply chain even iPhones are made in China. Economic sanctions on China would mark the end of the rule of the Chinese Communist Party because as its economy begins to decline, its billions of citizens will revolt also for the world it will spark massive shortages of critical equipment that uses parts made in China. At the core of it, the West has more reason to not do anything to China and China has all the reasons to keep everything as it is.

What If A War Does Happen?

But let's say all the reasons I have provided above still aren’t that convincing to you let's say a World War happens between the West and/or China/Russia if that ever occurred most of us will not be alive to tell the story. I doubt that there will still be any life on Earth after that war. Why - Nuclear Bombs, if any of the sides in a World War senses that it is losing it can simply send a Nuclear bomb to the nation that is winning, instantly turning the conflict into a Nuclear War, and Nuclear war means the end of the world. The only thing worse than dropping a nuclear bomb is dropping a nuclear bomb in a country with nuclear bombs - it is the quickest way to end human civilization and I think the great Military powers of the world know this and because they do they know to steer well clear of each other when it comes to declaring war on one another, and what’s a world war without the military powers of the world?