RE: New Player Question?
Thank you really much for the very detailed answer! Challenge rewards is a great suggestion. We are talking about 450 rubies or 1.3 million coins a month... could I ask you if, for long term purposes, it would be better to buy all ultra crates possible or to convert rubies to coins and buying like thousands of normal pack? (at this moment every ultra crates is worth around 170 000 coins, it's around 17k coins for 5 rubies, I don't know if it changes a lot or what is the average). If it's better to buy only ultra crates so I'm doing right, because these days I've been converting every coin I got into rubies to buy ultra crates. I felt it was more likely to make give me higher rarity units, and that it could be better on the long run, Thank you again!
According to your exchange rate 0f 17k [coins]=5 [rubies] an ultra crate costs 17k/5*50/1000=170 basic boxes
So first of all it's obvious that basics increase your unit pool way faster.
The rarity occurences within the packs is hidden. It's very certain tho, that Ultra crates chance for Legendaries is less than 10x as high as for basic packs.
https://chess-evolved-online.fandom.com/wiki/Shop
https://steemit.com/hive-135459/@e3gewinnt/empirical-rarity-occurrence-in-basic-packs
So to be better than basics to gain Legendaries Ultra Crates would need to cost less than 10x as much as basic packs.
The chance for Epics pretty sure is less than 5x as good in Ultra Crates compared to basics, so to be worth to get Epics Ultra Crates would need to cost less than 5x as much as basic packs (On the short run Ultra Crates have the gimmick tho to garanty an Epic unit).
So rn Ultra Crates are pretty bad.
mmh I understand even if, for my limited experience, probabilities were a bit different. Maybe I've been extremely lucky but in every ultra crates I opened so far (they should be like 6/7 in total -consider the new player bonus, that I don't know how it worked but surely, while it lasted, gave me a lot of coins), in every of those ultra crates I've found a minimum of 1 legendaries, to a max of 4 if I remember well, for an average of 1.5 or even 2 legendaries for crates. I repeat, maybe I've been extremely lucky, but that's around 1.5 legendaries for 170k coins, against the 1 legendary for 200k of your stats (because in the post about the 12000 basic packs you talked about 0.5% legendaries chance). For the moment I'm wondering if it's just luck or something, so I've just decided to continue to buy ultra crates -for scientific purposes- and let you know how the statistics change.
Grand confirmed, that the first appearing Diamond boxes are rigged positive to be choosen 4 sure, idk if such positive rigg also applies to the earlier buyed chests (Probably this is wrong speculation by me).
(I Edited comment some times, because I confused myself)
I'm definitely interested in your future results in Ultra Crates anyway.