RE: President Trump's Speech 02-26-20 - Squirrel Bait's Reaction
I agree with your basic skepticism regarding President Trump's statements. We are far beyond 'it's just the flu, bro'. Unfortunately, most people fall into either the Orange Man Bad or the God Emperor Trump camp, so rational skepticism and independent consideration of available facts are going to remain minority views.
Since rational people understand their survival is their responsibility, we are required to consider how official actions will fall short, or wildly exceed, what is necessary and desirable in pandemic prevention and survival. Travel restrictions are like quarantining countries, and we should be doing this without regard to economic concerns for countries - at least - with known community transmission ongoing. Presently, unless we test every individual entering the country multiple times (testing is shown to work ~30% of the time), we cannot ascertain whether or not they are carriers. People can be infectious for a month prior to showing any symptoms, or perhaps even remain asymptomatic indefinitely, yet infectious, like Typhoid Mary.
Quarantine does work to prevent transmission of the infection. It reduces physical social interaction, which is the primary vector for the virus. Brutality as witnessed in China's imposition of quarantine in Wuhan reduces quarantine effectiveness, because it forces people to flee instead of enter quarantine. Other actions we can take as individuals can dramatically reduce transmission, and we should all begin doing them. Dr. James Lyons-Weiler says:
"Overall, if we all act as though we, and everyone we meet, is infected, and do not shake hands,hug or kiss, use the “Ebola elbow bump” to greet (in short, keep your fluids to yourself), don’tshare food or utensils, carry and use tissues, and throw them in the bin (as HMG suggests), wipedown all common public surfaces w/bleach wipes (door knobs, door handles, keypads, elevator buttons,bathroom fixtures, light switches) throughout the day, we can all work together tobring R0 down to below 1.0. And we should do these things anyway during flu season."
Lowering the R0 below 1 stops the spread of the virus.
Thanks!
I agree with you and have to deal with the tribal all in or all out when it comes to The President. More and more people are guided into thinking you are either 100% on board something or 0%. Like anti- and pro vaccination or whatever topic you like. I am very grateful ( though it caused much trouble as a kid) I am mentally free. Perhaps not as free as I could be but free enough to operate independently.
I sure do agree with Dr. James Lyons-Weiler. You know, this mega-city idea is insane......unless the population is drastically reduced. Ah ha!
Anyway, I agree about reducing the R0 factor somehow however I disagree with you regarding quarantines in this case. It may slow things down and perhaps that the only goal to reduce burdens on the healthcare system. I can see that but here's my thinking. Perhaps I need to think it through further. Hence, discussions with folks like you. Here is my thought process on this.....
With no real way to screen the populace and such a long incubation period during which time folks are contagious (now possibly afterwards too for a time- possible double whammy with this thing) any community with community spread has had that spread for at least a month before people ended up in the ER in trouble. Okay so lock down the town or whatever. Well, you would have to lock it down for 24-30 days AFTER the last detected sick individual. Everytime a new case is found, the timer needs to be reset. This is where I see the problem in quarantines so far. To lock an areas down that long creates a SHTF situation. More people will be harmed by that than the virus. Otherwise you would have to lock people in their homes, let those who die do so and those who make it on their own do so, let those who will starve do so, etc for two months. Perhaps that's why China was doing that. In other words, this will only work if you lock them in the city/town or their homes for an extended period of time and walk away. Less cruel to cull them. It's the long incubation period for something as contagious as the flu I see as the reason it doesn't work unless we literally lock hot zones down for extended periods of time while at the same time ending travel between countries and limit travel between region like states creating a huge SHTF situation. Do you see a flaw in my reasoning?
Yet, what to do. Employers want employees to go to work ( nice way to get exposed to this), people want to be able to go to the grocery store (needs employees and customers are contaminating the place), Americans are not accustomed to hardship and complain over simple inconveniences. Our corporations are consumed with greed. This is a bad combo for a serious pandemic. I think that unless one is on a mountain all alone, plan on getting it. Stock up on what you need to survive it. Zinc, vitamin C, and so on. Just get through it.
Your comments regarding forced quarantines aren't incorrect. This is why I strongly recommend quarantining ourselves, for at least 30 days, or longer, depending on continuing spread. We will prepare in advance, and not be surprised. Quarantine will be imposed. It's the most effective means of preventing people from spreading it to each other, and governments will do it, sooner or later.
Best we do it ourselves, and not grant governments that power.
Thanks!
I hear ya my friend. Hubby and I have been talking about him burning his sick and vacation time with that idea in mind. He agreed though that our plans need to be as fluid and flexible as the situation. I have several different plans worked out but yeah, we need to be part of the solution which is limit spread even if we think it is not in the area. We would have no way to know. Walmart shopping is done, LOL! Flu prevention protocols are in place here anyway so no biggie there. Our biggest threat is hubby bringing it home.