Steemit Crypto Academy Contest / S7W4- Cryptocurrencies continue to recession or rebound in 2023

Asalam Alikum! This is Asad Fazal from Pakistan. I hope all members of this community are doing well and enjoying their life with loved ones and family. This is my entry for the new contest Season 7 Week 4 held in SteemitCryptoAcademy. The topic decided by the team is Cryptocurrencies continue to recession or rebound in 2023. It is very interesting topic same as Week3 topic because it will let share what people think about the future of cryptocurrencies in 2023 and will recession continues or rebound this year. I am super excited to share my view on this. So let's start!

Cryptocurrencies has been falling since the Bitcoin touched it's All Time High (ATH) that was of $69,000 in November 2021. Due to the high volatility of crypto market, it is really hard to predict the future of the coin. And in this time when most of the people has lost interest in cryptocurrency due to bad news and different exchanges and coins crush, we can't predict much because money flow is needed to boost the market upwards. Yes it is possible to do predication on the basis of technical analysis but still it is not guaranteed in any way.

However, this is cryptocurrency market that is not like Forex and Stocks and it can change anytime. With proper use of technical indicators and chart patterns we can check whether the crypto market continue to recession or will rebound in 2023. The technical indicators and patterns are used to know what is current status of the market, what would be the next move of the market and will it go upwards or downwards. Also we look at the Bitcoin chart because mostly the coins depend on it's movement.

To do technical analysis, we use different time frame charts and indicators like Relative Strength Index (RSI), support and resistance, MACD, and Bollinger Bands. The best in my view is RSI that measures the magniture of price movements in different time frames. If the RSI of the coin is above 70, it means people have overbought the coin and they will sell it at any point. And if the RSI is below 30, it means people have oversold the coin and likely to buy it again and it is also best time to invest. If we look at Bitcoin 1Day or 4hours RSI, it is 70.47 and 50.59 respectively. This thing indicates the market is overbought in 1Day chart.

In above screenshot, it is showing Total MarketCap of the Cryptocurrencies. I took monthly chart and it shows the RSI is 46 to 50 range and you can see $727 billion is becoming support which means if it breaks, market will go down but I think it will bounce from here. The total marketcap today of cryptocurrency is $1.006 trillion and I think it will move towards $1.18 trillion in February or March. But it is not a financial advice or guarantee.

My most favorite indicator is Relative Strength Index (RSI) that indicates the market status and whether it is overbought, oversold, or neutral. It measures the strength of price movements over time. As I have above said, if RSI is 70 or above, it is overbought and if RSI is 30 or below, it is oversold. If the RSI is between 40-60, it is neutral state that is risky because we don't know where the market will now move. Below is the technical analysis of BTC with RSI indicator.

The purple line near yellow line indicates the RSI movement of the Bitcoin on 4hours time frame chart. Currently RSI is at 52 that means it is in neutral state. If the RSI goes upward to 65-70 or more it will indicate market is overbought and if it goes downward to 30-35 or less, it will tell us market is oversold and then we can take entry for long term as it is 4hours chart.

The Bollinger Bands is an indicator that measures the price volatility by usind moving average and two lines plotted from price line above and below of it. In the chart above, it clearly shows that people have overbought BTC when it was between 16k to 18k and now they are waiting for upward trend. My personal thinking is that mostly will sell it near 30k. The Bollinger's upper and lower lines shows the trend reversal of the price.

After looking at Total Marketcap of Cryptocurrencies and at Bitcoin, I think in 2023, the cryptocurrencies will rebound but there will be no All-Time High (ATH) this year. Yes maybe it is possible that BTC will recover till 40k but not more than that. But still, it is cryptocurrency market and it is highly volatile and risky so nobody can predict the next move of any coin. So I advice to do your own research and not follow my view.

If we talk about the whole ecosystem then yes long duration bear market has affected my work. Also bear market has affected Steemit users which can be seen clearly on Steemit platform. Mostly profiles that were active in 2018 to 2021, are now mostly not working because the price of Steem decline much and the reward was not enough. Users were looking ways to increase reward here but only way was to be as much active as possible and engagement and posting on regular basis.

Talking about myself, yes it also affected me in the past but not now. Now I am not here to just get reward but I like how platform changed and people are focusing on sharing knowledge and quality content here. I usually read some posts but because of other work I am not able to do comments properly in time.

Long duration of downfall is not a good thing and it always demotivate people because people have done hard work and give time to the system but if it gets down and down and for long term, people usually lose interest in it. That is the reason why most of the past users are not active on Steemit now. Overall if we look at the long duration bear market affects, yes it has negatively affected Steemit ecosystem as the rewards gets low and price of Steem is more than half of it's All Time High. Moreover, users are not getting SBD and TRX anymore. The TRX integration was the good hope for recovery but now TRX coins are also not adding in the account.

Hard times come not only in digital world but also in our daily life. Life is full of ups and downs and financial markets also work the same way because you can't just get upwards direction of price all the time but you need to face downwards direction also. It is very important to not lose hope in Steemit platform. The reason is it is the only platform that is giving much more reward and support to it's users just by creating quality content. Don't think that you only need reward here but be part of the great ecosystem and use it just like a social platform.

Panicking is not a good thing and it result in losing interest and investment of time and money both. In start we have seen Steem price low but the people who believed in it got superb return. I have seen the chart of Steem on coinmarketcap here. In start it was $0.88 but moved to $6. Do you believe? Yes it's true and I am fully confident that in next bull run, the Steem price will cross $1.5 and till then you can get maximum powerups because SP is the only thing that will benefit you in long run. So recommendation is to not panic and stay calm and work on this platform.

As I said above SP is the only thing that will benefit you in short and long term. If you are unable to get rewards by creating content, try to find alternative ways like curating content and participating in community contests like I am doing. The contest are held every week in different communities for which you can get information from @steemitblog.

It is very important to stay calm in this bear market because one wrong decision can make you loss your whole portfolio or part of it. Stay positive and relaxed and find new strategies that works in this bear market. Moreover, it is recommended to stay informed and up-to-date by the latest Steemit news that are being shared by @steemitblog and in the market. It will help you make correct decisions that will benefit you in long term.

A very important advice here is to never let your emotions overcome you. It will give you much loss that you have never imagined. Why I knew it better because I was victim of it in the past. Stick to your strategy and if it is not working create a new way.

For me, there are 2 coins that will perform outstanding in this year 2023. They will give us maximum profit if invested at right time. The third coin is also expected to give huge profit but it is for big investors and that is BTC. You need to invest big amount to get big profit. The 2 coins which I think will give good profits in 2023 are:

Ethereum (ETH) is a decentralized blockchain that have smart contract functionalities. It is one of the most promising cryptocurrency that have huge potential to give good profits in 2023. It is a technology that is powering thousands of decentralized applications. It also helps to establish peer-to-peer network that will let execute application codes securely that are known as smart contracts.

There are many features of Ethereum like it helps in emerging many technological advances that are totally based on blockchain. It helps to create decentralized apps (dApps). Moreover, it also helps to create application for Democratic decision-making that will help in casting votes during elections in different countries. There are many benefits of using Ethereum that makes it perfect for future adoption and thus can give huge profits in 2023. Now let's have a look at the RSI and Bollinger Bands of it on tradingview.

In the above screenshot taken from tradindview, you can see the 1day time frame chart. Currently the RSI is at 57 that is high but you can see that it crossed 80 few days before mean people overbought it and then sold it. Now the RSI is getting down which means people will buy it from time to time and as we have 11 months left, once the price reach buying zone, people will accumulate it and it will move towards high price. In this way, it will give us huge profit if bought at right buying zone.

Polygon is a blockchain scaling platform that has a cryptocurrency which is MATIC. It is known as the Layer 2 solution for Ethereum that helps grow Ethereum-compatible blockchain networks. MATIC seems to be a promising cryptocurrency for 2023 that will give good profit in coming months. The main purpose of the MATIC is high scalability and fast and secure transactions done with Proof-of-Stake (POS) that is different from Proof-of-Work (POW).

Moreover the best thing about MATIC is it's low fees than Ethereum gas fees and faster transactions than Ethereum blockchain. This is the reason why it gained attention of many investors in past year. Just like Ethereum allows developers to build and deploy decentralized apps (dApps), Polygon (MATIC) also allows developers to build and deloy dApps but requires low gas fees than Ethereum gas fees. This is the main reason why it is being used by most of the investors and developers and it is the reason it will grow this year. Let's have a look at its 1Day chart on tradingview.

In the above chart, we can see that RSI in 1day time frame is 59. Why I choose 1Day because big time frames give better result for long term and here we are talking about complete 2023. If we talk about few days, then we need to look at 4hours and 1hour chart. What I am expecting in coming months is if MATIC breaks the resistance of $1.3201 with good volume it can reach next resistance of $1.5120. It will give good profit if we buy MATIC below $1 and hold till $1.5120.

The team for both Ethereum (ETH) and Polygon (MATIC) are continuously working hard to develop and maintain the system. Both coin's team has a proven work history and they have completed their promises. This thing makes me choose ETH and MATIC as promising coins for 2023. I hope these coins will rock in coming months or days.

The past year was not good for investors and retail traders and it was the worst year for some because of 5 biggest crypto collapses of the year 2022. These collapses are Axie Infinity Bridge hacked for $625 million, Terra LUNA crash, Celsius crash, FTX exchange collapse, and BlockFi bankruptcy. These collapses negatively affected the whole crypto market including STEEM and TRX coins.

But now as the things are getting better from day to day, STEEM and TRX seen a rise in trading volume and people are now moving towards cryptocurrency again. In May 2021, STEEM has seen it's All time high that was of $0.6688 and TRX has seen it's All time high of $0.179999 in April 2021. Since then both cryptocurrencies have been falling and now has reached STEEM $0.19 and TRX $0.062. Now let's have a look at both of them separately on tradingview for better understanding.

In the above screenshot taken from tradingview, you can clearly see that STEEM price has been decreasing from May 2021. This means people have already oversold the coin and it is also due to the Bitcoin drop from $69k to $15k since last Bullrun. The past year was not much good for STEEM token just like other coins. It has made a low of $0.1425 and in 3 months, it has not dropped from that level but it's price is increasing from day to day.

The reason is people are gaining interest in cryptocurrencies again and Steemit team is working hard to bring new developments on Steemit to gain the attention of investors. From my view, I think if BTC moves to 28k to 30k range, we will see STEEM price almost double from here because BTC's 28k to 30k range is very important and most of the investors are waiting to invest after confirmation of bullrun.

TRX has also faced bearish trend just like STEEM and other cryptocurrencies and it was the past year impact. Despite the fact, TRX moved from it's start point and made All time high of $0.17999, since then it's direction is downwards in recent months. This thing has made many investors to think whether they should invest in TRX coin or not because of unstability in the price.

There are many challenges that TRX facing and that are worldwide adoption, technology concerns etc. But with all these challenges, some of the investors are still motivated that the price will move upwards now because complete crypto market is moving upwards. As I said above if BTC moves to 28k to 30k range, we will surely see TRX above $0.11.

For STEEM analysis, I have chosen 1Day time frame of STEEM/USDT pair. At time of writing STEEM/USDT price is $0.1897. We have seen a price hike on January 18, 2023 that was of $0.2510. Currently the RSI is at 53 in 1Day time frame and 42 in 1week time frame. I have also checked RSI in 4hour time frame, it is 43. From different time frame's RSI, we can clearly see that people have oversold the coin and now STEEM is getting into buying zone. The RSI came from 80 this month and now investors and retail traders are buying STEEM. All these things indicate that market is in neutral state for now but there is a little bullishness in the market from this year.

In the above screenshot, we can see the RSI is at 52.72 that indicates the neutral state. Currently TRX is trading at $0.0621999 and if we look at the 1Day chart it is expected to move towards $0.07 but it will act as resistance to it which if broke, it will move towards next target of $0.09. In my opinion, TRX is little bullish for short term and can reach $0.07 in coming days. But for long term profits, first BTC needs to move to 28k to 30k range then TRX will be cross $0.11.

As we know how highly volatile the crypto market is and it is different from other markets. So it is difficult to predict the future movement of any cryptocurrency. But with fundamental and technical analysis, we can get a little idea of the movement. We have seen 2022 the worst year for most of the investors and crypto traders and whether we see recession or rebound in 2023. However, with the help of technical analysis and market trends, I see that cryptocurrencies will rebound in 2023.

If we look at the STEEM and TRX tokens, they are looking good for long term profits and for 2023 they will surely give good profit. You can check above what I analyze about these coins. But still, I will say nothing in crypto market is guaranteed and price movement depends on overall sentiments. So it is my suggestion to not rely on my analysis and do your own research before investing in this bear market. Thank You!

This is all from me for the "Steemit Crypto Academy Contest / S7W4- Cryptocurrencies continue to recession or rebound in 2023". I invite @samminator, @preye2, @steemdoctor1, @simonnwigwe, and @theentertainer to participate in this contest and share their crypto knowledge with us.