Introduction

After an enlightening (as usual) lecture on price forecasting, professor @stream4u gave us a homework task to ensure we got the information he passed. This is an attempt to complete the homework task, given as shown below:

1. What Is Price Forecasting?
2. Discuss why Price Forecasting is needed?
3. What Methods are best you feel for Price Prediction/Forecasting.
4. Take any Crypto Asset Chart graph and explain how to do Price Forecasting? OR Take any Crypto Assets Chart graph & as per its current price tell us what will be its future price for next 1 week or 1 month? You can predict for any direction up or down but explain it properly on what basis you have predicted the price.

1. What Is Price Forecasting?

Joseph wants to join the crypto train, but he has heard of people getting rekt and doesn't want to be a victim, what does he do? He simply asks his friend, Jude to show him how to analyze. Jude then gives him contacts to register into a trading academy, and he is taught price forecasting. Today, Joseph is a crypto whale.

Forecasting is simply using any method of analysis that pleases you to study the market and predict its next move. As the name implies, you are just forecasting, and cannot be 100% ACCURATE, most of the time, however, you can stack the odds in your favor by being meticulous in your analysis.

There are three types of analysis Joseph learned for forecasting that joseph learned:

- Technical analysis:

This type of analysis involves using graphical information on charts, combined with mathematical tools and price action, to predict the next move of the market. Naturally, the chart is just a graphical representation of the behavior of the market, and the market is known to repeat patterns. Joseph learned this type of analysis and became a guru, glued to his screen all day and learning price action, trends, supports, resistance, and all that. these improved his skills greatly.

- Fundamental Analysis

Joseph was a really busy guy, but he read the news and followed up on projects and their management while dining. This was because he wanted to know how well the companies backing these cryptos were faring and their use case markets, whether there was news of boom or crash. This was how he performed fundamental analysis daily. Using the news surrounding the coin and its statistics to know whether to buy, hodl or sell. He knew that this type of information moves markets without looking at the current trends, moving averages, and all of that.

- Sentimental analysis

Joseph was an introvert, but good thing his friend Jude was the life of the party, Instagram and Twitter influencer, and the most extreme extrovert he knew. Jude helped him set up social media accounts like youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. Here he could see what people were saying about his choice of coins, and weigh the general sentiment to it because he knew that movement of the price depends on whether people wanted to buy or sell the coins.

2. Discuss why Price Forecasting is needed

A lot of people have made money in crypto trading, like Jude and Joseph, while a lot of people have lost their money, and have joined the league of the "rekt". The regular difference between these sets of people is price forecasting. Most people are too lazy or nonchalant towards investing in their knowledge and are only attracted to the profits they heard about. This is the beginning of the end for them.

Forecasting is very important because:

• It helps you see the capabilities of the coin, and if it is a viable project to buy into. Virtually all three types of analysis can show you this, and you get to know exactly the past present, and possible futures of the coin, before deciding its viability.

• It helps you determine good entry points. Every good trader aims to catch the perfect entry when buying into a coin, or even shorting it. Why? Because it not only maximizes your profit but also reduces possible losses or liquidation.

• When to take profit. This is one thing a lot of traders have failed to do properly, and have let profiting trades run too long and ends up in losses. Proper analysis helps you set a viable target and you have to stay contented and true to your analysis.

3. What Methods are best you feel for Price Prediction/Forecasting?

Personally, I lean towards technical analysis more because I believe the chart is a historic representation of both sentiments and fundamentals of the past, and since humans are creatures of habit, they tend to react almost the same way to patterns in the market, this makes it to me, the best individual system.

But, I use all three. How? When I need to make a major move, I Technically analyze the chart, check out general price action, and when this is done, I check out social media platforms to check out general sentiments, weigh people's opinion, and from there, you can see some links, to news concerning the crypto. If these confirm my technical analysis, I feel safer placing my trades.

4. Take any Crypto Asset Chart graph and explain how to do Price Forecasting? OR Take any Crypto Assets Chart graph & as per its current price tell us what will be its future price for next 1 week or 1 month? You can predict for any direction up or down but explain it properly on what basis you have predicted the price.

btc/usdt

supply vs demand stats

sentiments

I chose BTC because it most times works as an index, most coins follow its lead. BTC broke minor and major trendlines, and on the SUPERTREND INDICATOR you taught us last season, there has been a breakout too and a sell is imminent.

Then on the fundamentals, there has been news of oversupply of bitcoin on exchanges. This coupled with the whole tax saga is primed to drive prices down further.

Sentiments are still showing a mixed sense of fear and uncertainty in the markets, the sell is looking to last a few more days.

So generally, we can expect a retest of the broken trendline, or support of the supertrend indicator (move W) then a sell (move X) and eventually the bulls come back in (move Y)

Conclusion

An intriguing lecture, the type I love to engage. I couldn't bring all images of fundamentals and sentiments to avoid making the work too bulky. I hope this was satisfactory. Thank you @stream4u