This cycle's bullish market will likely finish within this year, 2024.

Source: Bitstamp exchange

The BTC(Bitcoin) has had 3 bullish markets. Now, the 4th cycle has been progressing. One of interesting things is the BTC price broke 2021 ATH(All Time High) before the next BTC 4th halving. But, I'm worried about this cycle can finish early than expected.

So, I checked how long the bullish markets had lasted after the BTC price broke ATHs each cycle.

In the last bullish market, the BTC price broke 2017 ATH, and it had lasted for 5 months.

In 2016, the BTC price broke 2013 ATH, and it had lasted for 10 months.

While I tried to check the 1st bullish market, the BTC market was too small to reflect this data. So, I excluded it.

Therefore, my conclusion is this cycle's bullish market can be ended from this Aug to the beginning of the next year, 2025.

Well, my scenario is this cycle's bullish market will be likely ended this Dec. Because, this year is the presidential year of the 🇺🇲, and the election day is scheduled to Nov, this year. Investors want to avoid the uncertainty. Whoever is elected, it will increase the uncertainty for the crypto market such as regulation. Furthermore, more than 1m BTC is saved by institutions. Are you sure they will ain't hacked? I don't think so. Of course, someone might raise a question about using customers fund for embezzlement by them. But, since their funds are very strongly regulated by the SEC(Securities Exchange and Commission), it's gonna be difficult.

No one knows the future. I just want to suggest many possible scenarios. Preparing the worst scenario is better than doing nothing.