HF21: Just wait and see

in #hf21last year

We are eight days out from the expected Hardfork 21 where all the drama of Steem will meet in a focal point within the universe and destroy us all! Or something like that. But, what is good to note is the reminder about how some hardforks operate when there are changes to the economics and that is, they affect all open posts.

Once upon a time...

What ensued at the point of Hardfork19 in mid-2017 was ecstatic elation, as the curve was removed and suddenly, everyone's votes mattered. Yay!! Nearly all the open posts on the chain were boosted in their value as the small votes they had collected increased in value and the large whale votes decreased away from their N2 peaks and into a linear function. People were so happy with the change - and then the first bidbot was created.

RIP Randowhale

However as far as I know, this is pretty much how the next Hardfork is going to be applied to the Steem blockchain as I think calculating all open posts differently based on their posting time before or after the hardfork is not possible, so the backdate should happen.

Remember that Hardfork21 has several key points included:

  • The SteemDAO which will lower the 25/75% for curation/content to 65% - This is a development point aimed at incentivizing development by financing it out of the chain. Hopefully many users offer their support in suggesting projects and changes and developers do their job.

  • 50/50 Curation - So rather than the 25/75 split of the 75% of the pool, it will now be split evenly where the authors are guaranteed 50% of the payout (of the 65% of the pool after the SteemDAO change).

  • The convergent curve - and while technical and I don't have all the answers, this change in the code reapplies some additional weighting to votes depending on stake. I think there is a post from @Vandeberg on it here.

  • 2,5 Downvote pool - which means that there is going to likely and hopefully be more flags flying around the place, especially on abuse and content that is getting heavily over-rewarded. Don't be scared.

and Lastly,

  • Voting auction times - I am pretty sure that the voting time is going to be reduced further from 15 minutes to something like 5 minutes. This will bring in more randomization of voting order for the bots (I believe) and also mean that normal manual voters like myself don't have to wait to vote if we see something early.

Now, other than the downvoting pool since most people won't likely increase their downvoting habits yet, all of these things affect the economics of the Steem blockchain (EIP - Economic Improvement Proposal) and if backdated to all open posts, will start coming into effect tomorrow.

But what does this mean??

Dunno.

However if calculations are backdated, The Hardfork21 changes will start to be seen on the posts that haven't paid out yet. But be warned, this isn't going to be a very good representation of what the Hardfork is addressing, because people will not likely have changed their behaviors much at all, if any - since most people have no idea what is going on or what it al means. Yet over time and as the system and people start to adjust, things will become clearer as to how people are going to behave and what effect our behaviors have on the economics.

After Hardfork20 where Resource credits were introduced and a bug caused most people to be unable to interact, the place went crazy and people screamed and ranted for a few weeks with some still screaming and ranting.

My goal of this particular post is for people to take a bit of a "wait and see" approach this time and rather than screaming about the what has been lost, evaluate what has been gained.

This is easier said than done for many people, but how I handle it is I have established a small and knowledgeable group of users who I trust to have a discussion without getting emotional, whether they are personally affected positively or negatively. Generally these people are veterans and, they have a track-record of not blowing up.

Now, it doesn't matter if you have a group of people or not, but just find something that you can anchor yourself with as often around Hardforks,

people get loco.

I suggest not sitting around in chats and on blogs where even during the calm times, the people are crazy.

The other thing that would be beneficial to let go of before the Hardfork is that the changes are likely to have negative impacts on you personally. And on me too.

This Hardfork is coing to change the most controversial components of the Steem blockchain code and while people think that is the downvoting function, it isn't. It is the economics of Steem that brought many people here and therefore, it is the potential negative change to earnings that will affect people the most on average.

While humans tend to focus twice as heavily on the losses, the actual opportunity will lay in what has been gained but when people are looking at the negatives, they are unable to simultaneously take advantage of the positives and therefore, they lose out twice. People need to remember that in any healthy economy there is both the potential to win and lose, something that will hopefully return to the system after 2+ years of guaranteed profits for some at the detriment of others.

The last thing I would like to impress on people is that just like the wins and losses of Hardfork 19 and 20, at each stage things are learned and 21 and 22 will address some of the learning with a return to curves, free downvotes and the coming delegation pools likely in Hardfork 22 that will counteract the negatives for onboarding with Resource Credits from HF20.

People are so used to living in a broken, but long lasting economy that is managed by people with most decisions out of sight and definitely out of their hands that when faced with self-governance within a community, fear of the unknown becomes the norm. When acting on fears, rarely will the results be positive.

As said, Let's wait and see what changes for some time after Hardforks so that we can more accurately and effectively evaluate them and adjust without our emotions swooping in and fighting for the status quo.

Carry on

But stay calm.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]

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i hope everything fks up. Will give authors stuff to write about :)

😂

Let's play; Who explodes during this Hardfork!

:D

I was just going to say, I love Armageddon, so much more exciting than the every day 😎
Thanks for the timeline, though, I was planning some posts for next weekend, but I think I'll wait and see.

Don't wanna close my eyes...Don't wanna fall asleep...

:D post away but just expect the outcomes to change a bit. Not a bad time to experiment I think.

True, although I'm a bit of a watcher :)

Posted using Partiko Android

You are already exploding imploding with a massive loss....(don't tell the wife, it's not good - females hate that, no matter what say, and support they pretend to give...)

Feel free to ask me for advice - I've turned my steem into 12 or 13 times my investment.

How about you so far?

....if you want to invest in my business off steem, let me know......

(I'm really trying to help, matey,even though you don't think so....)

Clusterfork time FTW!

Because steem isn't echo chamber meta enough yet.

This is the first I've heard of the auction window going down to 5 minutes, maybe I just skipped over it somewhere lol.

Good approach though. Nobody's heads are going to explode and there is no point in fighting the inevitable. People just need to chill out and see what happens. Can it really get much worse than right now?

Also I like to point to the tribes (although my opinion is obviously biased) as a view of how 50/50 plays out.. Clearly there are more people curating with tribal currencies as the incentive to just post 10x a day and rape the rewards pool is less. The downvotes also come into play with that as well. More moderation on Steem + 50/50 is going to be a positive game changer imo. Wait and see we must 🙏🏽

This is the first I've heard of the auction window going down to 5 minutes, maybe I just skipped over it somewhere lol.

I think it was an after thought that the witnesses pushed through. It was mentioned in one of the @steemitblog posts.

I agree, the 50/50 spilt was a fortuitous occurrence just before the HF :) I think it is working out pretty well. It is working on Smoke too.

I agree, the 50/50 spilt was a fortuitous occurrence just before the HF :) I think it is working out pretty well. It is working on Smoke too.

Curation will be more profitable with 50/50 rewards, but Steem is getting cheaper. What I'm thinking? Buy. :D

Sounds like a plan to me ;D

image.png

Haha, I am sure there will be some more pre-emptive shooting before the week is out.

I'm all for the wait and see approach. I plan to keep on working on what I can accomplish and understand fully, (on and off of Steem)

I have no idea how this will effect me personally, and that's fine. It's not about the individual but the good of the community now and in the future.

For those who are consistent and engaging, this might workout better for them.

are you a commie?

People don't normally wait and see for things like this? Have I been doing it wrong all this time? o_O

Completely wrong. The trick is to throw your hands up in frustration, storm out, slam the door and then... skulk back in quietly later.

With the 50/50 split on posts I really hope it will encourage more people to take a chance on content from the littler guys. It will hopefully increase curation efforts. A lot of the other things i still have to get my head around but I'm sure that will come with time.

I hope so too. At least from what I have seen on the SCOT sites, it seems to be the case an people are looking a bit wider than when they were on Steem. It all takes time to get the head around, then it changes again :) It is why I like it. Some people love the conditions of the current world so much, they want to stay here forever.

I also remember the reward pool getting bloated up after Hard Fork 20 because nobody could extract from it given the RC situation!

Posted using Partiko iOS

yep, it just touched above 1M, 25% above normal.

I don't know exactly what will happen but I think comments are going to be affected heavily, however I am still in the mind that comments don't necessarily get rewarded. But when I started on Steem, they weren't.

I am pretty sure that some of the autovoters will change their times tomorrow, but I also think that many people won't change much until they start seeing the results come in.

There is indeed nothing else we can do but to wait and see!
I was under the assumption, that the 50/50 split only would be in effect on the posts written after the HF21 was life! Thanks for clearing that up for me. This means that it would be better to stop using the ocdb until after the HF is launched.
It for sure will be a complete different ball game after 8 days from now! While it certainly will have some good effect, I am more or less against HF21.
But regardless of how it will effect me, up to a certain degree, I will be here after HF 21. My curation rewards will go up, but my posting earning will go down! And the upward trend of the curation will not compensate the decrease in posting earnings! I do know that for sure!

But I will stay as calm as I can be!

Cheers,
Peter

This means that it would be better to stop using the ocdb until after the HF is launched.

We will be adjusting accordingly by tomorrow.

Good to know, I was waiting for an announcement about this. Thanks @acidyo.

I was under the assumption, that the 50/50 split only would be in effect on the posts written after the HF21 was life!

I am not completely sure but, I think it will backdate. PErhaps @eonwarped can weigh in.

The rewards will all adjust as people adjust and it isn't completely sure what people are going to do, et alone some of the largest stake voters.

Just continue to have some fun.

Once the hard fork has taken place, rewards paid out after HF21 will be as per new model.

That should not affect the actual STU already received for the post/comment but will affect the split.

Already received rewards were based on the then existing active stake balance. They are immutable AFAIK.

Yep, this is how I think it will work but am always unsure of the specific technicals, thanks.

Indeed will be changes and it will be interesting. Perhaps at some point we'll build up following here like we once had and the value will rise. Don't know time will tell thanks for sharing @tarazkp

The value will rise but not much with the previous following, most of the price was speculative pump and dump and had very little to do with Steem personally. Later, things will be different I hope.

I think one of the most shocking things that will happen besides the initial loco madness is that nothing will change much in people's behaviours. I hope that's not the case but we will see

From what I hear, the worst case scenario is nothing much changes. That'd be boring :D

Yeah boring would be so very dull!!

And boring and dull would be tedious.

Damn right, I want chaos and screams! :0D

Great advice, Taraz! I wonder how many will follow them when the time comes.

Btw, one other thing that comes with this HF is the increase of the limit to 5 jsons per block instead of 1. Not particularly of interest to content creators, but great for certain dapps, like games, which should run more smoothly.

Ah, I didn't know that was on the cards, Thanks. Yep, that should be a welcome sign for the application devs.

But be warned, this isn't going to be a very good representation of what the Hardfork is addressing, because people will not likely have changed their behaviors much at all, if any - since most people have no idea what is going on or what it all means.

Many users were not able to understand how things work around here, now the rug will be pulled out of them. Some still have no idea about tribes, tokens, stakes and so on, not to mention HF21.

To be honest, those "many people" would probably enjoy it more if they tried less hard to understand it. And if the old timers tried less hard to be convinced that everyone needs to fully understand how all mechanics function.

For many it will be a case of "whoa, I made more in one month than I made back in the day in one year from my blog - or ever made from crack book and its ilk... also made so many new friends in Discord. #ZOMG!"

To be honest, those "many people" would probably enjoy it more if they tried less hard to understand it.

....you're a little bit stupid, aren't you? (a taraz sock?)

....you're a little bit stupid, aren't you? (a taraz sock?)

I welcome all opinions about me. Not sure I give a flying eff about those insulting me though, even less so if they even don't know me. But as a fan of immutable censor-resilience I will continue to fight for everyone's right to expose their ignorance for eternity.

The pleasure is mine. Entirely mine.

Edit: I highly suggest you read Daniel Pink's Drive because based on your reply to me, it seems it may increase your level of understanding of the human psyche.

I welcome all opinions about me.

only base don previous comments

The pleasure is mine. Entirely mine.

yeah, I don't think so. (passive aggressive, much?lol)

Not passive, fully aggressive. Just slightly more eloquent than you.

Now if you don't mind, I'm going to make use of that beautiful feature the chain offers... my time is much more valuable than what I've seen from you so far thus mute. :)

fully aggressive? you think?

mute? don't wanna get into it? - passive aggressive much? lmao

I think that once the communities and SMT get into stride, many users who come here will have no need to learn anything, and only those who want to will dig any deeper, just like life in general.

now the rug will be pulled out of them.

This is likely.

Some still have no idea about tribes, tokens, stakes and so on, not to mention HF21.

This is part of the problem with combining all groups so closely because, those who are here just to earn on their content are less likely to learn how it works and assume it is something else. Those who see it as an investment opportunity are more likely to do their due diligence on it and if they don't, that is on them.

In my opinion though, even of just here to earn like a job, you have to learn how things work, otherwise it is like expecting to be paid for a job one doesn't know how to do.

I think that once there is the layer separation with communities and SMTs, all this gets easier.

In my opinion though, even of just here to earn like a job, you have to learn how things work, otherwise it is like expecting to be paid for a job one doesn't know how to do.

Investment is another matter. I agree with you, If you want a profit and not just to benefit from the price differences, it's mandatory to learn everything you can.

This is why I think it is up to the front end applications to sort out user experience. In general, "building human experience" is not the strength area of blockchain coders ;D

Well said 😀

have you ever had an IQ test?

I'll expect the copy paste to my post to somehow validate 'something'. lol. 'insanity is'.....do you know the rest? or want me to fill in the blanks?

I love meeting people with a higher intelligence than me - I learn.

How about you?

(i'm waiting for copy/paste of my post - to illustrate exactly what i said above)

.....go for it, knock yourself out, tiger!

bless! lol ......the smell of coffee is great, you should try it sometime..

It would be more realistic if there was a bit more drama intertwined into it. :D

jokes aside, my feeling is that everyone below dolphin will suffer in rewards. maybe i am wrong. god thing (also a bad thing) is that i will be really busy in next 10-15 days so maybe i will miss all the drama.

It will be okay and this is not the end point for development, just a stepping stone. but there will be drama involved.

really busy in next 10-15 days so maybe i will miss all the drama.

And all the fun ;D

You got a 60.20% upvote from @ocdb courtesy of @tarazkp! :)

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