Gridcoin Trading Analysis and Price Projection

Introduction

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The following post is my trading analysis and projection of Gridcoin over the coming months.

For those who are in the Gridcoin Discord server, you will know me as I have been frequently posting in the trading section predictions of Gridcoin for both long and short-term with the majority being successful. After my most recent long-term prediction, I decided to air it to Steemit too, just to see how it goes.

It must be noted that I am not a professional trader/market analyser, I have simply exposed myself to enough information and time within the market to make some accurate economic predictions. Any corrections or second opinions are well appreciated (I am always learning new things!).

Gridcoin?

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If you haven't heard of Gridcoin already, it is a Proof Of Stake (POS) style cryptocurrency with it's own alternate consensus protocol named Proof Of Research (POR) which allows participants to be rewarded for volunteer computing through the Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Networked Computing (BOINC). Gridcoin rewards miners for their work in computing scientific work as opposed to wasteful and useless hashing.

The Big Analysis

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GRAPH 1

Here we have my long-term analysis. Just by looking at it, we appear to be in the recession of the recent boom and almost right back where we started which is a typical repetition of the trend we see in the (very) long-term. I will be using this analysis along with some others referenced later on in this post to make my next moves on the market.

GRAPH 2

(Very) Long-term Trends:

Before we begin, I think it is important to point out the trend within the entire history of the price of Gridcoin that many people have noticed (with others pointing out this trend here and here) which is that Gridcoin is a crypto asset that likes to be 'pumped', meaning that it has very large, consistent and notable peaks but as we see, it always slumps back to some sort of common ground where it meets, what I'm calling, the 'average price' (price that it stays at before it goes into another boom).

The "Boom Indicator":

But there is something special with these peaks that I've noticed - (most of the time) when the coin is about to enter a boom, it's price will slump down in a curve and then pick back up as it 'approaches the moon' (this is shown by the green curve labelled "Boom Indicator" in graph 1 and the green boxes in graph 2). But it is important to note that this curve appears within the graph at times when it does not boom and therefore is not 100% accurate but still acceptable in the majority of cases.

About Graph 1:

In graph 1 we clearly see a successful boom indicator push Gridcoin pretty high and at each (correct me if I'm using this term wrong) support level (green boxes), the other side of the curve gets a little 'kick' (red arrows). At current time, we have now reached a price where we shouldn't see any more of these kicks because there are no more support levels to indicate them, and thus we slide into our 'average price'. This is what I'm calling the "buy zone", because if you buy here, you are pretty much guaranteed to make a profit in the long-run. This is also the zone to be looking for the boom indicator I stated earlier.

What to Look for:

What I would be looking for before I buy is when the RSI (purple graph at the bottom) reaches its lower extreme (indicated by the green box in the bottom right) as the current Gridcoin price is lingering in the zone where it doesn't typically go any lower. Then just sit back and let the rocket ship take you to the moon.

Concern About the Current Price

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It has been raised in various places that people are worried about Gridcoin's USD price and in some particular cases, computers have been shut off to prevent exceeding the electricity budget. I personally think that a comparison to USD is reasonable for this scenario but shouldn't be over-emphasised because there is a factor in that conversion that no one can control - the price of Bitcoin. The reason why we are seeing such a large drop in the USD price of Gridcoin is because of the recent media and political shenanigans Bitcoin has got itself into, such as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) classing cryptographic assets as property covered by federal tax (source) which saw the price of BTC plummet by about 3000 USD, taking the majority of other currencies (including Gridcoin) with it.

It is also important to note that exchanges don't dictate the 'true' price of a cryptocurrency because after all, you aren't just buying an asset - you are buying the technology behind it. In the case of Gridcoin, you are buying into the prospect of scientific advancement and a system and ideology that is unique from all other cryptocurrencies (see note). In my eyes I see that Gridcoin has long-term viability unless something better comes along.

Note: There are other cryptocurrencies that reward the computing of scientific work but are either limited to a single project or have a model centered around business and proprietary software, making Gridcoin very unique.

Conclusion

I hope this post provided some intrigue and was able to help anyone understand Gridcoin more or see the light at the end of the tunnel for its price. As stated, this is my own knowledge and am open to correction.

Happy trading and crunching everyone!

Thanks to Tradingview for allowing me to freely access charting tools.