Statistical Analysis Sunday August 19th

in #gambling6 years ago

Tramore 2.40

4/1 Cock A Doodle Doo, 9/2 Wild Desire,
7/1 Superefficient, 17/2 Humps And Bumps,
9/1 Athloman Cottage, Captain Cobajay, Moonball,
10/1 Go Complain, 12/1 Every Chance,
16/1 Island Villa, 20/1 Ticaticatee, Yea Or Nay,
33/1 Catch My Drift, Desertmore Dreamer,
33/1 Rock On Bach, Still Alive.

2m Handicap Hurdle

COCK A DOODLE DO is a mare
But she won last time out
In a career best Racing Post rating

The Racing Post have a good point
Saying she is one of the only horses
Who have good decent and recent form

Given her positives
She is quite tempting each way
Assuming you can get 4 places
As very few offer much promise

There are some factors worrying me
She is a mare from a maiden hurdle
And she was lucky to win that race
She only just gets this 2m distance
On a track with an uphill finish
She could easily get outstayed late
It would be easy to overrated her

I think she is a sensible saver
And if prices allow a better place bet
I agree with the Racing Post
SUPEREFFICIENT is a big danger
I like the significant change in jockey
Before her last run over further
When ridden by a 7lbs claimer
She was running better than her rating
She surely should be able to win off 80

Selection

£5 Win Bet SUPEREFFICIENT 7/1

£5 Place Bet COCK A DOODLE DO 4/5

Pontefract 3.35

5/2 Foxtrot Lady, 11/2 Rock On Baileys,
7/1 Golden Spell, 8/1 Dance Diva, Promising,
10/1 Tirania, Zain Hana, 14/1 Darkanna,
Miss Bar Beach, Pepita, 16/1 Rajar,
25/1 Castle Hill Cassie, Richenza.

This is quite complicated
A High draw is not too helpful
But the best horses have high draws

Horses aged 4 are better
But the race is top heavy with 3 year olds

Pontefract races over 6f
Under 14 runners
Class 3 and higher
Since 2008
Show horses drawn 11 +
Have a 0-42 record in 10 years
Foxtrot Lady is drawn 11
Rock On Baileys is drawn 12

There has been a non runner
And they have the best last time numbers
Thats what swings it for me

FOXTROT LADY's last 4 numbers
Racing Post Ratings of 103 97 106 101
Most of her rivals have mid 90 numbers

I also like that she's running over 6f
Horses from 7f have struggled
Since 2002
Horses in this race from 7f
Have a modest 1-50 record

No horse aged 4 or more
Have ever won this down in distance
TIRANIA has this problem
PROMISING has this as well

ROCK ON BAILEYS has the worst draw
He is also down in distance from 7f
Thats not a good sign with a 1-50 record
ZAIN HANA looks inexperienced
DARKANA offers no fitness guarantee
DANCE DIVA has a chance
Couldn't rule her out at all
But horses from 7f are 1-50 in this

FOXTROT LADY has every chance
GOLDEN SPELL is also shortlisted
Especially prepping over 6f as most do
Playing the race this way

Selection

£3.50 Each Way GOLDEN SPELL 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet FOXTROT LADY 5/2

Southwell 5.00

3/1 Baron Von Chill, 7/2 Box Office,
6/1 Railroad Junkie, 8/1 Blazon,
8/1 Cosmic Tigress, 12/1 Benny In Milan
16/1 Gannicus, 20/1 Polished Rock.

2m Handicap Hurdle

BARON VON CHILL has every chance
He has recently upgraded stables
Predictably showed improved form
Has 3 decent recent runs
Looks capable of winning off 103
Looks likely to run his race as well

BENNY IN MILAN in contrast
Has a handicap hurdle rating of 112
After 16 previous hurdle runs
None of his Racing Post Ratings
Have matched or beaten a 112 rating
Suggests he is not chucked in

BOX OFFICE has been chasing
Not a safe profile from Jonjo O'Neill
Struggled when last seen over hurdles
The nature of similar stable horses
They can pop and win occasionally
But generally better off not trusting them
BLAZON is inconsistent and hard to predict
He's had a few poor runs in a row now
Short of recent runs as well
RAILROAD JUNKIE is inexperienced
COSMIC TIGRESS has been nibbled
But he's running low flat numbers now

BARON VON CHILL has a bit of momentum
He is also most likely to run to his rating
Which entitles him to be right there
BARON VON CHILL is my selection
He looks the sensible choice each way

Selection

BARON VON CHILL 11/4-3/1

Each Way

Pontefract 5.10

9/4 Power To Exceed, 7/2 Bibbidibobbidiboo,
5/1 Avenue Of Stars, 8/1 Round The Island,
8/1 The Amber Fort, 14/1 Campion, Dawn Breaking,
14/1 Sfumato, Van Gerwen, 20/1 Tavener.

6f Handicap

3 year olds take on older horses
POWER TO EXCEED is a 3yo filly
She only has 4 career starts

Not a profile that described as safe
A couple of horses with similar profiles
Did win Yarmouth "maiden handicaps"
But none won a race just like this
I thought she was a curious favourite
Probably because she is lightly raced
Not sure you would want that here
Pontefract has 13 past renewals of this
All 13 winners had 8 or more starts
Horses with under 8 career runs are 0-10
Drawn 7 and with 4 runs she is not for me

DAWN BREAKING has a nasty absence
On the back of two poor last time runs
SFUMATO is another with a tough absence
TAVENER is not running well enough
ROUND THE ISLAND ran 3 days ago
His 11 length defeat over 5f puts me off
AVENUE OF STARS won last time out
That was in a lower grade of race though
He's raced just once in a couple of months
He moves up in class from the worst draw
And is lighter raced this year than most

THE AMBER FORT has never won on grass
But he has turf runs that could win this
Not sure he will from a rating of 75 though
He has never won off a mark this high
And on Grass that may be asking a lot

VAN GERWEN is top weight rated 75
Not keen he has only 1 run in 92 days
Fewere recent runs than most of these
If you look at his previous 7 races
He has put in 6 stinkers in 7 races
Can only win on 1 of his last 7 runs
All his best figures are on softer ground

CAMPION is a 3yo filly
Very well handicapped on 2yo form
When he was 3rd in the Woodcote Stakes
Quite clear she hasn't been fit this year
She is now getting there and is a threat
But he is only running Class 6 numbers

On Racing Post Ratings last time out

74 Bibbidibobbidiboo
66 The Amber Fort
66 Avenue Of Stars
66 Power To Exceed
62 Campion
49 Sfumato
48 Tavener
43 Van Gerwen
33 Dawn Breaking

  • Round The Island

BIBBIDIBOBBIDIBOO comes out top
She has a last time out ratng of 74
None of the others can beat a 66 rating
That makes her interesting
That rating was over 7 furlongs though
But her last 2 runs were career bests
She just gets the verdict on her numbers

Selection

Small Stakes

BIBBIDIBOBBIDIBOO 4/1

Each Way

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