Liverpool have no chance of winning the Premier League

I've been toying with the idea of writing a blog analysing the impact that this summer's international tournaments including the AFCON and Copa America may have on the clubs challenging for the top spots in the 2019/20 Premier League but to be honest the subject seemed a little dry. Therefore, I thought why not make the topic a little more controversial, why not see I can get @phil.newton to flag my post ;-)

Liverpool had an incredible 2018/19 season achieving the 3rd highest points tally in Premier League history with 97 points as well as winning the European Cup. The problem is that the side that beat them to last year's title with 98 points is also the side who the year prior to that became the first EPL side to win 100 points in a season. Whatever you may think about City and the way they go about their business they seem capable at the very least of maintaining very high standards if not improving upon them. Can the same be said of Liverpool?

16-year-old prodigy Harvey Elliot is an exciting talent but will he help close the gap between Liverpool and City?

It's been a quiet summer for Liverpool with just a couple of young players in Sepp van den Berg and Harvey Elliott signing for the club. With neither player likely to break into the first team anytime soon it may well be that both are farmed out on loan in order to get minutes under their belts. They are exciting talents for Liverpool to have acquired but in the short term, they are unlikely to help the club clear that final hurdle and deliver a first Premier League title.

By contrast, City have once again identified gaps in their squad that need filling and splashed the cash to get int the players that they require. Cover and an eventual replacement for Fernandinho who will be 35 by the end of the season was key for City in this summer and they closed a record deal for Atletico Madrid's Rodri almost as soon as the window opened.

For me, Liverpool lack genuine creativity in their central midfield positions. Wijnaldum and Henderson are willing workers but neither has an eye for that killer pass. Meanwhile, Keita and Oxlade-Chamberlain can drive at the opposition and are particularly attempt in broken play but they usually lack that little bit of craft against highly organised defences that take away the space they operate best in.

I believe that Jurgen Klopp agrees with this assessment and it is why Liverpool were giving serious consideration to signing a player like Nabil Fekir this time last year even though they had already spent big money on the likes of Keita, Fabinho and Shaqiri. Fekir has since joined Real Betis in a deal that will hopefully allow Spurs to sign Lo Celso while to date Liverpool appear not to have made any moves for a similar style player in the window. Again, you can criticise City for essentially buying their titles but you have to admire the fact that they act without hesitation to improve their squad year in year out, something that Liverpool don't appear to have done thus far.

Going back then to the original theme of this post, Liverpool are also disadvantaged by the amount of playing time that their squad has had to endure over the past year. Having a smaller squad or at least having less genuine first-team options means that on average a Liverpool player was required to play the equivalent of 4-5 extra league matches last year in comparison to City

Top 5 EPL minutes played for both sides. The difference between the likes of Sterling and Salah or Walker and Robertson is clear

The gruelling season that the Liverpool squad endured was only extended by the tournaments held this summer in Africa and South America. Saido Mane, for example, played 55 games for club and country between 12th August 2018 (the start of the EPL) and the AFCON final on 19th July for a total playing time 4789 mins. In the same period, Mo Salah amassed 56 appearances for club and country and was on the pitch for a total of 4703 mins.

Mane and Mahrez both endured marathon seasons but squad rotation allowed Mahrez greater opportunity to rest

Man City too have had some players who have had long years, in particular, Riyadh Mahrez whose Algeria side beat Mane's Senegal in the AFCON final. However, Mahrez played just 3194 minutes over that 342 day period, a full 26 hours or the best part of 18 games less than Mane. A similar stat exists for Sergio Aguero who was a key part of Argentina's 3rd place finish at the Coppa America yet still played significantly fewer minutes for club and country than Salah.

All of the above suggests that a Liverpool squad that has not added any reinforcements will be severely stretched next year by a City team that enjoys cranking up the pressure on the opposition both on and off the pitch. Jurgen Klopp wants his sides playing a brand of high-octane football or as he famously called it "heavy metal" football. My concern would be that their demanding workload may leave Liverpool sounding more like the Black Eyed Peas than Black Sabbath.