Is This Sell Off Over... Time to Collect Cash

in #finance6 years ago

The share price of great businesses fall without reason all the time.

It could be because of the overall market or a specific sector. However as long as the core business is unchanged, a great business is still a great business. It is important for great investors to recognize these moments and take advantage of the opportunity. Once market participants figure out that nothing is wrong with the business then the cheap shares become attractive and new capital drives the share price higher.

The best way to take advantage of these opportunities is by selling put options and collecting the upfront premium. (Get paid to pick the price you wish to purchase the stock at.)

Today's company is trading at 17% lower than it was just 4 months ago because of perceived bad news in the industry overall. Shares are too cheap to ignore.

The upfront premium payments on selling put options reduces your risk. To reduce risk even further I only look at trading for income on great businesses that trade at good prices. The company that fits this profile today is $19 billion Hershey (HSY).

Hershey has about 80 brand names that people can not get enough of such as Kisses, Reese's, Twizzlers, Jolly Rancher and Milk Duds. The also offer non candy options such as Skinny Pop popcorn and Krave beef jerky.

Hershey's grows sales like clock work increasing earnings per share from %1.88 to $4.84 over the last 10 years. It has solid 13.6% profit margins and it pays an attractive 2.9% dividend.

Two ways to measure a company's value are with the EV/EBITDA ratio and the EV/FCF ratio. The EV/EBITDA ratio looks at a company's market value compared with its earnings. Whereas the EV/FCF ratio looks at its market value compared with its free cash flow.

Hershey currently trades with an EV/EBITDA of 12.8 and an EV/FCF of 21.6. The chart below shows that these valuation levels are below average for Hershey's over the past 10 years.

hsy.png

Is this the exact bottom in Hershey's stock? Impossible to say however, its trading at the cheapest levels in more than five years.

Eventually investors will recognize the value of this world class brand and shares will launch higher. But in the meantime we can make money buy collecting a cash payout.

I suggest you sell the June 15, $92 puts on Hershey at $2 or better (using a limit order). A 2.2% upfront payment on your purchase cost for agreeing to buy shares at a slight premium to yesterday's closing price of $91.65.

If Hershey holds above $92 through June 15 (in four weeks) this is a 34.5% annualized return.

If Hershey closes below $92 on expiration day, put sellers will buy shares at a great price and keep the upfront premium payment of $2 providing a stating cost basis of $90 per share.

To protect against an overall market decline, use a stop loss $82.

Disclosure: I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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