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RE: Thoughts on Markets. Bulls, bears, and "is it priced in?"

in #finance4 months ago

Thanks for responding. 😁

the block reward is cut in half

does that mean that the people mining it get half what they were getting before?

if others are taking it into account yet

why does that matter? i.e. what would they do differently if they were taking it into account and who are these "others"?


every 10 minutes a new block is mined and added to the chain. When that happens 12.5 bitcoin are released to the miners. That means 1800 new bitcoin are minted every day.
Sometime in the middle of May the block rewards will halve. That means means that instead of 12.5 it'll be 6.25 and the daily amount of btc minted will drop to 900.

Miners typically sell because they have to pay for their electricity. So, for easy math we'll call btc 10k. When there's 1800 a day there's 18M USD that gets sold on the market from miners. When there's only 900 a day the weakest miners get rekt, a much smaller amount of bitcoin is produced, there's only 9M USD a day of selling generated from teh miners, but presumably there's still 18M worth of demand. So, price starts climbing, or at least that's the bullish argument.

Wow. Thanks so much @aggroed. That's fascinating and you expxlained it in a way that I can understand it. How refreshing!

every 10 minutes a new block is mined and added to the chain

What's the Steem equivalent of that. Is it something to do with "proof of brain" or is that something else entirely?

You mine steem too. You just do some brainy blog post to mine rather than run a server. Steem has an inflation pool and it shrinks every year. So, we don't have a halvening. We have a an annual decrease of half a percent. We started at 10% and it'll go to ~1% of 18 years or so. I don't know the exact number now. But we're under 9% inflation.

So we're wondering if those anticipating that the halvening will increase the price (pretty much everyone) have already started valuing bitcoin more.
We know its 111 days away, so has this price increase already happened?

Got it. Thanks! 😍

so has this price increase already happened?

So it could be that investors are buying now before the anticipated price rise as described by Aggy and as a result they could be inflating the price such that it won't rise so much come May.

Or it could be as @jrcornel speculates.

Either way, I'm not buying any. Might get some more Steem though, if the price comes down again.

Aggy says:

People play it professionally. They are better than me

I suspect that my grandkids would be better than me. Especially if my luck with crypto is equal to my luck with packopenings/reward cards. 😂