The Fate Of Ethereum: What May Be To Come...?

in ethereum •  last year

I began turning bullish on Ethereum last October when I met the Consensys team in Bali. Until then, I hadn't done enough research to convince me it was truly worth investing in for the long term. Though being in the presence of the lead team of Ethereum dapp developers, I caught a wave of their excitement and foresaw just how big Ethereum could get.

Turned out, investing then at $12/ETH was a wise decision.

Price aside, it's also been announced that Ethereum has been catching on big in China, Dubai, Singapore, Russia. The Enterprise Ethereum Alliance has gathered some major players in support of developing Ethereum and its ecosystems. Several new projects have been launching ICOs on the blockchain, including some real cool game-changers. All-in-all, it seems like Ethereum is growing steadily - if not outright booming.

But...

Is there actually the substance to back up all the hype?

Taking all these recent developments and news into account, one might think so. But then again, such news stories probably wouldn't cover all the finer details of what might not fit the sensationalistic hype of Ethereum as the idealized future of the internet.

Yet recently, there's been some debate.

Some have (begun - or continued) questioning Ethereum's core strengths, potentials for scaleability, and whether it truly has the capacity to become the backbone for the myriad of applications being planned for it.

Today, I came across the Medium post, raising some valid concerns:

I was wrong about Ethereum

Of course, much of the article is opinion and speculation. Yet, included are some perspectives that ought to be considered in the debate.



Sure, Ethereum is hot.

Though, what actual applications have been fully-developed and are smoothly functioning on it...?

Ok, there might be a few small ones. But of all the 9-figure ICOs that have blown the crowdfunding world away, how many have successfully moved from an idea articulated in a whitepaper to a proven-concept?

And sure, it's still early. Good things take time to build.

Though how much has been built, really, besides a system to create and distribute tokens via smart contracts, which has successfully been used to provide startups with way more capital than actually required to get their ideas into motion?

I'm not totally sure. And it feels kinda weird to not be able to answer that.

Maybe doubting or questioning at this point is merely a consequence of impatience. We are in the early days of blockchain technology, and can't expect everything to come together super-quick when it's all so new.

Though then again, there are blockchain projects - such as Steemit - that have proven their concept and been building their track record of functional usability, while Ethereum seems to have only built more hype.

Granted, maybe there is ALOT going on in the Ethereum domain I don't know about.

Though if it's really the bomb-diggy, wouldn't there surely be at least a fraction of the news coming out on its tangible developments as there is on conceptual advancements, partnerships, and fundraising.



Some might ask, in light of all the recent debate: is Ethereum all some big scam?

Of course fucking not.

Many people have sunk their blood, sweat, and tears into this project. Do your research, and you'll find that while there are no doubt shadier projects riding the ICO wave and milking Ethereum's popularity for their own benefit, there are also a shitload of dedicated programmers, visionaries, and entrepreneurs working their asses off to bring about amazing innovations on Ethereum.

Nonetheless, what's really backing all the grand visions, from a technical standpoint? Yes, high hopes and big visions of changing the world are great. But is the technology really that great that it's actually feasible? Or is it still too early to accurate tell?

I and other Ethereum-supporters might like to believe that a huge worldwide group of Ether-heads would be smart and talented enough to tackle all the challenges they arise, work out all the kinks, and get things running flawlessly to support the growth advocates have forecasted within the stories of the most-optimistic outlooks. But reality doesn't give a fuck about what we believe or want.

And, in digging deeper, some of the opinions come from the inside circle aren't all that confidence-inspiring. And while I've often stated before that opinions are typically worth shit, when they come from the people who are most-intimately involved with a project, suddenly these viewpoints might begin to hold some weight. i.e. Those from one of the key Ethereum developers, Vlad Zamfir:



Though is that to say such is an absolute, authoritative, forecastive statement? Obviously not.

And sure enough, Vlad got some heated response to that post, calling out what may have been an immature statement undermining the immense complexity of the matter that could hardly fit into a 140-character synopsis when the tech is still obviously in its infancy.

But then again, are we to take absolutely everything Vlad tweets as factual reporting?

Or might one be wise to second-guess the absolute seriousness of everything he tweets - given the "Absurdist Troll" status on the account?

Who knows.

Though, Pontus Lindblom, author of the "I was wrong about Ethereum" article did put together a collection of some of his other tweets that might fill in a bit more of the picture:




So what are we to conclude about this?

How about, nothing.

How about we conclude that conlusions based on incomplete facts and one-sided stories don't paint an accurate representation of what is and what will be.

So what... one of Ethereum's key developers has publicly expressed what might be seen as pessimism. That's no crystal ball reading. If anything, it's some respectable, transparent honesty.

Yeah, there might be concerns.

How new is this tech again...? Of course, there are going to be concerns and kinks to get ironed out.

How will they be addressed? I have no fucking clue. Probably no one does.

Hopefully, the formation of the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance has behind it some strong organizational architecture that elicits the best and brightest of the partnering organizations to collectively solve what challenges arise - because it is a pretty fucking amazing vision of what the internet may become, should Ethereum flourish into its fullest potential, as thousands of devoted advocates, developers, and entrepreneurs have invested their heart, soul, time, energy, and spirit into.

Or maybe it will all fall to pieces at some point. Maybe #EOS will emerge as stronger in countless ways and step in to pick up where Ethereum failed. Or not. No one can tell.

Nonetheless, we all march forward together in this blockchain revolution, doing what we each can to serve the advancement of developments that may make the world a more brilliantly awesome place to be alive.



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First off I really dig your style of writing, hard hitting on point, elegant yet when you start cussing I totally jump on board, you definitely get your point across. So in response, yes Ethereum is a hype machine, I do not have any and never will, ETH is an insult to blockchain, it makes people learn stupid shit for lame reasons, for example if you do not set your gas high enough to get into an ICO your funds will not go through because a bunch of wealthier vestors who are willing to pay thousands of dollars to get their transactions through are given priority processing. Then when the coin or token hits exchanges they sell it all off to do it again with the next one, they are not vesting in tech substance, they are vesting in greed and hype. For me the DAO event clearly shows, ETH was willing to sacrifice their primary principle, immutabily, for staying out of prison for publishing flawed code. What we all really need is coders to share with people how they feel about these projects because regardless of what the hype is, code is puddin. I see ETH falling in a blaze of glory, for selling out to corporate interests and lacking any substantial integrity, POS is a pipe dream, their platform will break when attempting to scale large enough then they will be replaced in market cap by antshares, who already has sidechain, so EOS to flop and fizzle as well.

Great article. I shall HODL!

Is the ICO and downfall of ethereum price related?

We have seen several panic selling in the recent past, the last one in this month, i remember, was related to the coinbase server problem but then the price started growing back.

Now with the ICO huge amount has come in into projects like Bancor and several others. Though roughly 20-30 % of this money raised goes to the developer and some amount to marketing and development . But i feel the ICO and eth price fall are related some way. What do you think?

I even read somewhere that this price fall is once again due to panic selling that triggered from the death hoax of Vitalik Buterin - co founder of Ethereum

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well, people do need to buy ETH to invest in ICOs requiring ETH.

and once an ICO is finished, some of that ETH raised might be converted back into fiat or other crypto. though you can never be sure how much, and whether that drop in the bucket would affect ETH price that greatly...

Your content is fire. I have so much faith in Ethereum. I also take the small coin strategy!

https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@jrose1010/the-small-coin-strategy-potential-to-make-hundreds-of-thousands-maybe-millions#comments

It's too big to wrap your mind around all at once.....once contracts start calling other contracts in an object oriented style, major innovations will begin to congeal....the problem now is that everybody is trying to build something that can stand alone....imagine something like the Augur contract calls the Bancor contract (Joey Krug was working on a similar tether formula) which utilizes the Golem network which then again reports back to the Augur oracle....Once somebody comes along and connects the individual contracts (building blocks---"objects") in an innovative way, the worm will turn....wait for it because it's too big to see at the moment! https://dapps.ethercasts.com/

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Contracts calling other contracts - this will be commonplace, nobody doubts it. But the main problem is that this thing does not scale. It can process no more than 20-30 transactions per second before it stalls. Just for comparison Steem, with less than 20k active users, already needs 8-9 transactions per second.

According to well-informed people like Vlad we are at least 2 years away from a solution that may fix this. Or it may not - it's still subject of research.

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agreed - it's going to get very interesting when different dapps start interconnecting...

It's clear that Ethereum isn't a scam - Vtalik's contributions to the blockchain space are impossible to argue against. Not only did he build one of the most influential projects in the whole space, he's clarified his thinking and made it accessible to others via the great work on his blog.

You raise great points re: the fact that, whether or not Ethereum remains one of the top blockchains, it's a legitimate and important project. I think the situation right now is more of a temporary problem: Ethereum-based ICOs are just out of control.

The main example of this is the Bancor ICO, which is just horrifying. $140 million for a poorly defined project, it's the definition of hype and bubbling and all that. People are jumping onto a bandwagon. This project, and many smaller ones besides, are artificially inflating Ethereum through no real fault of its own.

Vtalik seems to be learning - he's stated on Twitter that he will be much more careful about who he lets use his name for projects. In the past, whenever he met with a blockchain founder, he'd end up on a nominal "advisory board." I've seen Nick Szabo the victim of other such instances - he publicly admonished a project the other day via Twitter when they added his name to their site unasked.

What I'm trying to say is, the future is bright for Ethereum compared to the $12 price you bought in at - but right now, at $250 or whatever, it's probably still due for a correction downwards, at least in my eyes. The bubble hasn't really popped quite yet.

I got in on ETH very early and been riding its wave. Recently I been losing confidence and cashing out my ETH so I can power up. STEEMIT is a great investment that has a real working product used by many people and potentially as many developers as Ethereum.

I think its only a matter of time before Ethereum experiences another DAO moment because of the amount of new code from ICO's .

Great post! I loved reading it. I don't know what to expect. #EOS is coming and I'm very anxious.

That's Art 😄

@rok-sivante believe me bro btc is scared of etc
these are normal corrections im very very sure the price is gonna go to the moon

The more ICO's that use ETH the more these wild swings will happen. They companies have to cash some in to have working capital. Instead of bemoaning the swings be ready to POUNCE! Following. resteemed! #whalepower

I think a lot of us are wondering what the heck is going on?

Only time will tell :)

only the future will tell us... ;)

Though I did not invest in ethereum until a couple months ago, the plan was to scale into a position as pull backs occurred. However, I started to discover much of what you have share here and decided I will just hold my initial position. My confidence is not nearly as high as at first discovery.

Updated:28 June
I'm going to HODL to see if ETH rebounds.

From what I can tell, virtual every crypto took a big dump this week (profit taking, normal cyclical action? IDK).
charts.JPG
The 7 day charts on the right look almost identical, this clearly isn't panic selling because of some flaw in ETH.

But I can exert a lot more control over my Steemit wallet than any other currency, where I'm left waiting like an expectant dad in the maternity waiting room.

If it drops back to near where I bought in, I'll cash out the ETH and convert it to SP but today it looks like it has bottomed out.

?? People donot realize that many products are already in ethereum block chain example storj its live and working with paid customers ... and there are more example. I think there is an investment world and there is a reality world

Great to read your thoughts and with very different views on where ethereum is heading everywhere, I'm still keeping my fingers and toes crossed that it will see better days :)

Excellent ending with a classic picture of Einstein.

Brilliant post, brill pics too, cheers.