RE: ETHEREUM (ETH) ZigZag of Higher Degree of Trend Looks Exciting!
Well I believe that Bitcoin has only ever had two bubbles, one which started in October of 2013, peaked at the end of November 2013 and finished bursting/crashing around January 2015. Prices then stayed within the $200 to $400 range for about 10 months. You can see that here:
You can also see at the right hand side of that chart the most recent crazy run up to 20k. So I believe this shows that there have only been two actual bubbles for Bitcoin ever.
Now what happens after most bubbles in financial markets? Well simply put confidence doesn't rebound up from panic over night. It takes time for the general public to forget about all the people who lost their life savings, or just a lot of money in general from the horrific crash from 20k to 6k.
Above shows the NASDAQ took about as long to hit all-time highs again as it took for the bubble to play out. If we compare this to the current Bitcoin Bubble...
This bubble has been playing out for about 15 months now and will most likely be at least another month until we hit true bottom I think. Let's say we bottom in a month, that's 16 months it took to play out. So I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a year to hit $20,000 again.
My belief is that all bubbles play out roughly the same because human nature is pretty much a constant. So if the Bitcoin bubble is similar to the NASDAQ bubble (and as I say it should be because both markets are based on human nature), then it could take us a year or more to see $20,000 again (if we ever do see that again of course, nothing in investing is guaranteed).
The first bubble in Bitcoin seemed to follow this general pattern in that it took 17 months for the bubble to play out and about 2 years to see all-time high prices again.
Obviously these numbers are just general and not some specific formula, but the overall point is that a bubble doesn't just occur, top out, and then crash and zoom back up to all-time highs... It takes a fair amount of time before confidence comes back into the market, this is just human nature. So I am not saying to people don't HODL, but if you are HODLing expect to wait up to a year to see profit if you bought at the top.
Let me know what you think @rettigphotos
Man that is majorly helpful to have someone as knowledgeable as you seem to be answer my exact questions completely with graphs and charts. Thanks for the breakdown. I followed you as well, I'm looking get back into bitcoin before it sees any real gains and was contemplating investing now, but it sounds like you're thinking that we haven't hit bottom. Getting in when they bottom out is what I try to do...I don't know what the techniques are in the industry but has worked for me personally. Everything I know about cryptocurrency, trading on the exchanges and when to make which moves I learned on my own since buying my first bitcoins in several years back when they were at $5.25 a piece. I had no use for them really, I just thought the whole mining process was cool and believed that they would be valuable in the future. Everyone I told what I was into thought I was crazy playing with toy money and so on. Lol I live in a place where there's not a soul other than me familiar with digital currency. Thanks for answering my questions.