"The Big Picture" by Ray Dalio
Article linked here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-picture-ray-dalio
All credit for ideas and content go to Ray Dalio and his team.
I'm posting this here because I believe Ray is correct about the select following points included in the article (among others):
Point 1: The short-term looks OK, the long term doesn't
"Big picture, the near term looks good and the longer term looks scary. That is because:
- The economy is now at or near its best, and we see no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two,
- There are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt obligations, limited abilities by central banks to stimulate, etc.) that are likely to create a squeeze,
- Social and political conflicts are near their worst for the last number of decades, and
- Conflicts get worse when economies worsen.
So while we have no near-term economic worries for the economy as a whole, we worry about what these conflicts will become like when the economy has its next downturn."
Point 2: The unfunded liabilities will come home to roost, with a vengeance
Debt and non-debt obligations (e.g., for pensions, healthcare entitlements, social security, etc.) are high.
Read the article linked for more information and feel free to comment.
Thank you for sharing. Very insightful, feeling motivated to go read this economics book I have on my shelf. 😋